Category Archives: Economics

Silver price hits eight-year high – business live

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Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news

Neil Wilson of Markets.com suggests that large investors may also be driving the silver price rally, rather than it simply being caused by retail traders.

He also warns that such speculation is risky, and usually ends badly for some of those who get caught up:

The fact that such a large and liquid market as silver can be targeted by retail investors says much about the shift we are witnessing, though despite appearances this morning it’s going to a lot harder to squeeze silver shorts as the market is so much deeper and more liquid.

We should also note that some bigger smart money may have be front-running this trade to piggyback the rally and further fuelling the move up. (George Soros: “When I see a bubble forming, I rush in to buy, adding fuel to the fire.”)

Allianz’s Mohamed El-Erian has tweeted that GameStop and silver are not the same kind of short squeeze trade (as some WallStreetBets posts have also been pointing out).

El-Erian also cautions that the silver squeeze could undermine the squeeze on hedge funds who shorted GameStop’s shares, as the GME trade depends on keeping retail investors on board (rather than selling to the hedge funds).

.#GameStop and #silver are not the same for those pursuing the short squeeze trade
The silver market is much larger;
Existing shorts are smaller;
Some of the #HedgeFunds that are short #GME are said to be long silver
Bottom line: A dissimilar trade that eats away at #GME gains https://t.co/TMfpkr7QDE

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UK to apply to join free trade pact with nations on other side of world

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Liz Truss to seek to join 11-nation trans-Pacific partnership, whose nearest member is 3,000 miles away

The British government is to formally apply to join a mammoth free-trade pact that includes Australia, Canada, Japan and New Zealand now that it has left the EU.

Liz Truss, the international trade secretary, will ask to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) when she speaks to ministers in Japan and New Zealand on Monday.

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Keep Covid rescue programmes or risk triggering stock market crash, warns IMF

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International Monetary Fund says there are concerns about share price bubble

Governments and central banks must maintain their pandemic rescue programmes or risk triggering a stock market crash, the International Monetary Fund has said.

Warning that there were legitimate concerns about a share price bubble, the Washington-based organisation said that without continued low interest rates and government subsidies it was possible a “correction” in stock markets would occur.

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‘A Brexit nightmare’: the British businesses being pushed to breaking point

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Less than a month after leaving the EU, trade is flowing so badly that small firms are moving operations abroad to survive

Christophe Fricke lectures in German at the University of Bristol and adores living in England. He was born in Germany but his anglophilia became so strong after moving here that he wrote a book called 111 Gründe, England zu lieben (“111 Reasons to Love England”) in 2018. He selected the gardens of Cornwall, the National Portrait Gallery, the way the English use collective nouns for groups of animals (herds, packs, and so on) and their fascination with murder cases in his varied list of reasons for loving this country.

But since 1 January, Fricke has been reminded that there are also worrying things about life in England – and being outside the EU is now chief among them.

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New Covid infections pose challenge to China’s growth and Xi’s leadership

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The leader has declared victory over the virus, but a fresh outbreak is complicating the narrative

When Britain was in its second lockdown last November and the economy was contracting, China’s quarterly growth rate was hitting 6.5%. Figures last week showed that for the full year, the world’s second-largest economy could boast a growth rate of 2.3% while all its rivals in Europe and the Americas were going backwards.

The trend could be traced back to Beijing’s efforts to tackle the virus – albeit after a period of denial – and keep infection rates among the lowest in the world.

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‘It’s a big deal’: why former protester turned Davos mayor wants WEF back

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Philipp Wilhelm knows local people rely on forum’s revenue – but still thinks world must change

In his youth, Philipp Wilhelm was at the forefront of protests against the World Economic Forum’s annual “extreme capitalism” gathering of the business and political elite in Davos, the Swiss mountain resort where he grew up.

Now, however, Wilhelm is the mayor of the town and his central mission is to ensure the return of the WEF jamboree, which had been scheduled to start next week but was cancelled this year due to the pandemic.

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As Covid cases spike, Dubai works to keep its economy open

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For an emirate dependent on trade, transport and tourism, vaccination, not lockdown, is key to keeping its economy going

As if the Boohoo online fashion company had not generated enough controversy in recent months, its bosses once again found themselves in the headlines last week for hosting a four-day meeting with suppliers in the luxurious surroundings of a Dubai hotel.

The company’s top executives had taken a private jet to the emirate for the get-together with the businessmen and women who supply their fabrics and manufacture their fashions, despite Foreign Office guidance that advises against all but essential travel.

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China reports strongest growth in two years after Covid-19 recovery

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Country was expanding at a faster rate than before the coronavirus pandemic at the end of 2020

China’s economy has posted its strongest growth in two years after completing a rapid recovery from the slump caused by the Covid-19 pandemic at the start of 2020.

Although the 2.3% annual increase in activity for the world’s second biggest economy was its slowest since 1976, by the final three months of last year China was expanding at a faster rate than before the crisis.

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We’re on the verge of breakdown: a data scientist’s take on Trump and Biden

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Peter Turchin, an entomologist-turned-historian, offers insight into the battle between elites

Peter Turchin is not the first entomologist to cross over to human behaviour: during a lecture in 1975, famed biologist E O Wilson had a pitcher of water tipped on him for extrapolating the study of ant social structures to our own.

It’s a reaction that Turchin, an expert-on-pine-beetles-turned-data-scientist and modeller, has yet to experience. But his studies at the University of Connecticut into how human societies evolve have lately gained wider currency; in particular, an analysis that interprets worsening social unrest in the 2020s as an intra-elite battle for wealth and status.

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EU halts imports of seafood from smaller Scottish companies

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Export firms point to post-Brexit delays around health certificates, IT systems and missing customs papers

Deliveries of Scottish seafood to the EU from smaller companies have been halted until Monday, 18 January, after post-Brexit problems with health checks, IT systems and customs documents caused a huge backlog.

Scottish fishing has been plunged into crisis, as lorry-loads of live seafood and some fish destined for shops and restaurants in France, Spain and other countries have been rejected because they are taking too long to arrive.

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Is ‘hysterical’ market speculation pushing us towards another crash?

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Despite Covid, global stocks started 2021 on a high. But some analysts warn of an ‘epic’ bubble, amid fears that the flow of stimulus has created a monster

Insurrections are not usually seen by investors as buy signals. Yet even as rioters stormed the seat of US legislative government last week, stock market indices hit new highs in New York, adding another chapter to 12 months of apparent defiance of economic gravity.

Wall Street, measured by the benchmark S&P 500, was not alone in starting 2021 with a bang. London’s FTSE 100 jumped by more than 6% in the first week of the year as investors took in a heady cocktail of a President Joe Biden ready and able to spend money, cheap borrowing costs, and the hopes that vaccines will end the coronavirus lockdowns. Yet amid the exuberance a serious concern looms: are we on the cusp of another colossal crash?

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The world in 2021 – how global politics will change this year

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Donald Trump’s departure will alter the face of geopolitics. The climate crisis and Covid response will affect all nations – while others face very particular challenges. Observer correspondents examine the 12 months ahead

A potent mix of hope and fear accompanies the start of 2021 in most of the world. Scientists have created several vaccines for a disease that didn’t even have a name this time last year. But many countries, including the UK and the US, are still stumbling through the deadliest period of the pandemic.

The shadow of Covid will not begin to lift, even in richer countries, for months. Britain was the first to approve a vaccine and has secured extensive supplies, yet Boris Johnson’s suggestion that life might be returning to normal by Easter is widely seen as optimistic. Other countries, particularly in the south, face a long wait to get vaccines, and help paying for them. The rebuilding of economies shattered by Covid everywhere will be slow; even countries that managed to contain it have taken a hit, from Vietnam to New Zealand.

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Extend Covid measures or households face ‘cliff edges’, says Labour

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Universal credit boost, ban on evictions and mortgage holiday must continue, party says

Many low- and middle-income households will face financial hardship unless ministers maintain support for those who have lost their jobs or experienced steep cuts in income during the second wave of Covid-19, Labour has said.

The shadow chancellor, Anneliese Dodds, said in a new year message to Rishi Sunak that the chancellor must extend a range of Covid-19 rescue measures due to run out over the next three months “to protect struggling households from financial ruin”.

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EU states unanimously back Brexit trade and security deal

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Backing of EU27 paves way for new arrangements between UK and EU to come into force on 1 January

The post-Brexit trade and security deal has been unanimously backed by EU member states, paving the way for the new arrangements to come into force on 1 January.

At a meeting of ambassadors in Brussels, the 27 member states gave their support for the 1,246-page treaty to be “provisionally applied” at the end of the year. The decision will be formally completed by written procedure at 3pm central European time (1400 GMT) on Tuesday.

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China to overtake US as world’s biggest economy by 2028, report predicts

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Centre for Economics and Business Research says it expects this to happen half a decade sooner than it forecast a year ago

China will overtake the US as the world’s biggest economy before the end of the decade after outperforming its rival during the global Covid-19 pandemic, according to a report.

The Centre for Economics and Business Research said that it nowexpected the value of China’s economy when measured in dollars to exceed that of the US by 2028, half a decade sooner than it expected a year ago.

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Trickle-down economics doesn’t work but build-up does – is Biden listening? | Robert Reich

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A new study confirms tax cuts for the rich do not benefit the rest. Recovery from the pandemic is a chance to change course

How should the huge financial costs of the pandemic be paid for, as well as the other deferred needs of society after this annus horribilis?

Related: Jeff Bezos became even richer thanks to Covid-19. But he still won't protect Amazon workers | Robert Reich

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UK and US close to deal on cutting tariffs, says White House trade chief

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Talks on reducing charges on items such as Scotch whisky follow UK move to drop levy on Boeing

The UK and the United States are hoping to reach an agreement on reducing trade tariffs, according to Robert Lighthizer, the US trade representative in Donald Trump’s outgoing administration.

In an interview with the BBC, Lighthizer said he was in talks with the UK’s international trade secretary, Liz Truss, which could remove hefty tariffs imposed by the US on goods including Scotch whisky.

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For seasoned EU watchers, Brexit trade talks look uncannily like Grexit

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Analysis: While there are similarities with the 2015 clash between Athens and Brussels, there are also key differences

It was a marathon even by the European Union’s standards. For hours, leaders of countries in the eurozone argued, haggled and shouted at each other. After breaks for refreshment, they argued, haggled and shouted some more. Rumours swirled around the packed media room. Eventually, as Brussels was waking to a new morning, the 17-hour overnight summit staggered to an end.

All participants were in agreement that victory had been snatched from the jaws of defeat. Despite the brinkmanship, a deal was eventually done – as seasoned EU watchers had always said it would be, even when all hope seemed lost.

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Economic cost of Covid crisis prompts call for one-off UK wealth tax

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Tax experts and economists outline ‘fairest, most efficient’ way to repair public finances and quickly raise £260bn

The government has been urged to launch a one-off wealth tax on millionaire households to raise up to £260bn in response to the coronavirus pandemic, as the crisis damages Britain’s public finances and exacerbates inequality.

The Wealth Tax Commission – a group of leading tax experts and economists brought together by the London School of Economics and Warwick University to examine the case for a levy on assets – said targeting the richest in society would be the fairest and most efficient way to raise taxes in response to the pandemic.

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Asian manufacturing boom offers hope for swifter global recovery from Covid

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Markets respond as manufacturing in China and South Korea grows at fastest pace in a decade

Hopes that the world will bounce back from the ravages of coronavirus in the new year have been buoyed by strong growth in output from Asia’s huge manufacturing centres, led by an accelerating post-pandemic boom in China.

China’s factory activity expanded at the fastest pace in a decade in November, a closely watched survey showed on Tuesday, in the latest sign that the world’s second-largest economy is recovering to pre-pandemic levels.

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