Rachel Reeves may have to find more money to fix public services, says IFS

Institute for Fiscal Studies says budget allows for rise in public service spending this year and next, but not thereafter

Rachel Reeves could be forced to find more money to fix public services after her budget made a start at reversing the “unrealistic” and irresponsible spending plans of the Conservatives, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has said.

Britain’s leading experts on the government’s finances said the chancellor’s tax measures on Wednesday had allowed for a substantial short-term increase in public service spending this year and next, but not thereafter.

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NHS will not be turned around in one budget, says Wes Streeting – UK politics live

Health secretary says measures to be announced on Wednesday would ‘arrest the decline’ amid significant NHS reform

Kemi Badenoch, who is the bookies’ favourite to be the next Conservative leader, has told Times Radio that the contest is poised “neck and neck”.

Interviewed by Kate McCann, Badenoch told listeners:

People are tired of the party looking like it is not out working for the people out there. That is what I want to bring: integrity, and a focus on conviction and conservative values.

There is something very significant that is going on, we are picking a leader of the opposition. People have a choice.

This is a sacrifice, because I worry about the direction of the country.

I worry about a lot of decisions we make, and us not being honest with the public about the serious trade-offs that are going to be required, and not saying enough about how the world is becoming a more dangerous place.

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Former British colonies owe ‘debt of gratitude’, says Robert Jenrick

Tory leadership candidate wades into reparations debate, arguing empire brought democratic institutions

Britain’s former colonies should be thankful for the legacy of empire, not demanding reparations, according to the Conservative leadership candidate Robert Jenrick.

In comments that were described by a Labour MP as “deeply offensive”, the former minister said countries that were part of the empire “owe us a debt of gratitude for the inheritance we left them” in the form of legal and democratic institutions.

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Ex-Tory MP reprimanded for ‘brazen’ sexual misconduct

Parliamentary watchdog rules Aaron Bell ‘abused his position of power’ by touching woman in Commons bar

A former Conservative MP has been reprimanded for “brazen and drunken” sexual misconduct in one of parliament’s bars.

Aaron Bell, who was the Tory MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme until July, was found by a parliamentary watchdog to have “abused his position of power” by touching a woman “on her left thigh, waist and bottom inappropriately and without her consent”.

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OBR to publish breakdown of claimed £22bn ‘black hole’ on budget day

Former chancellor Jeremy Hunt says decision to publish findings of review on Wednesday is ‘significant concern’

Britain’s fiscal watchdog is to publish a detailed breakdown of the £22bn “black hole” that Labour says it inherited after Rachel Reeves presents the budget on Wednesday.

The Office for Budget Responsibility will release the conclusion of its review of how the forecast for departmental spending for its last economic and fiscal outlook, published for the March budget, was prepared.

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Reeves: ‘My budget will match greatest economic moments in Labour history’

The chancellor says she will invest to reverse Tory decline, but stands accused of breaking party manifesto promises

Labour will launch a new era of public and private investment in hospitals, schools, transport and energy as momentous as any in the party’s history in this week’s budget, the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has said.

In an interview with the Observer before the first budget by a female chancellor, Reeves draws comparisons with Labour’s historic reform programmes begun in 1945 by Clement Attlee, in 1964 under Harold Wilson and in 1997 under Tony Blair.

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Group that emerged from Tory party hosts forum for Britain’s far right

Traditional Britain Group’s London conference includes speaker from Germany’s AfD party and far-right activists

A group that emerged out of a faction of the Conservative party has become a forum for Britain’s splintered far right.

A private conference hosted earlier this month by the Traditional Britain Group (TBG) was attended by figures from the Homeland party, an extreme nationalist group, as well as rivals from other groups such as Patriotic Alternative.

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Jeremy Hunt claims Labour changing debt definition will ‘punish families with mortgages’ – as it happened

Former chancellor says ‘increasing borrowing means interest rates would be higher for longer’ as Reeves says it will ‘make space for investment’

Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, has said that “no one knows” who Robert Jenrick, the Tory leadership contender, is.

Of the two candidates left in the contest, Jenrick is the one who is doing most to appeal to Tories who defected to Reform UK, because he is saying Britain should leave the European convention on human rights.

I know the fella. Is he the chap that one day was on the very much on the left of the Conservative party and is now on the right of the Conservative Party?... No one knows who he is.

I’m sure government can agree that support and providing opportunities for young people should be central to the policy of any government. We are glad to see the government working to build closer economic and cultural ties with Europe. We want to forge a new partnership with our European neighbours, built on cooperation, not confrontation and move to a new comprehensive agreement.

We must build rebuild confidence through seeking to agree partnerships or associations helping to restore prosperity and opportunities for British people.

We are not going to give a running commentary on the negotiations. We will obviously look at EU proposals on a range of issues, but we are clear that we will not return to freedom of movement.

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Angela Rayner defends right of activists to campaign in US elections after criticism from Donald Trump – UK politics live

Comment follows accusation from Trump campaign that Labour staffers had been interfering in US election

The Labour party has put out a statement rejecting allegations that it broke US election law because activists and staff members have been volunteering to help the Democrats.

A Labour spokesperson said:

It is common practice for campaigners of all political persuasions from around the world to volunteer in US elections.

Where Labour activists take part, they do so at their own expense, in accordance with the laws and rules.

We said that because working people had already paid the burden under the last government, we wouldn’t increase the taxes, the main taxes that working people pay, so income tax - all rates - national insurance and VAT. So those taxes that working people pay, we’re not increasing those taxes in the budget.

We go into this budget with a number of challenges - the £22bn black hole just this year, in the public finances, the unfinanced company compensation schemes, for example on infected blood and Horizon, it’s really important that we honour but they weren’t in the forecasts from the previous government.

The fact that the previous government had baked in austerity to our public spending settlements in the years to come, and we committed to not return to austerity.

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No 10 says Starmer ‘shares public anger’ at early prisoner releases but system facing paralysis without it – as it happened

Downing Street says government ‘shocked’ at inheriting prisons crisis as hundreds of prisoners get early release. This live blog is closed

The funeral of Alex Salmond, the former Scottish first minister who died suddenly earlier this month after delivering a speech in North Macedonia, will be held on Tuesday 29 October, his family has announced.

The funeral will be at Strichen parish church in Aberdeenshire. It will be conducted by Rev Ian McEwan, a friend of the family, and only family and close friends are invited. Salmond will be laid to rest in Strichen cemetery.

According to the Eurostat data, England and Wales had 144 prisoners per 100,000 head of population, the 8th highest rate among EU countries and the highest amongst western European jurisdictions. Scotland had the 9th highest with 137 prisoners per 100,000. Northern Ireland had 76 prisoners per 100,000 of population and was ranked 24th.

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Suella Braverman sent at least 290 government files to her private email

Tory rightwinger may have breached ministerial code as attorney general between 2021 and 2022

Suella Braverman forwarded government documents to her private email accounts at least 127 times while serving as attorney general, in a potential breach of the ministerial code.

The Tory rightwinger routinely forwarded correspondence, with at least 290 documents attached, when she was the government’s top legal officer between 2021 and 2022, according to a freedom of information request.

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Employment rights bill will cost firms £5bn per year but benefits will justify costs, government says – as it happened

Analysis from business and trade department says bill will significantly strengthen workers’ right. This live blog is closed

In the past the weirdest budget tradition was the convention that the chancellor is allowed to drink alcohol while delivering the budget speech. But since no chancellor has taken advantage of the rule since the 1990s (and no one expects Rachel Reeves to be quaffing on Wednesday week), this tradition is probably best viewed as lapsed.

But Sam Coates from Sky News has discovered another weird budget ritual. On his Politics at Jack and Sam’s podcast, he says:

Someone messaged me to say: ‘Did you know that over in the Treasury as they’ve been going over all these spending settlements, in one of the offices, its full of balloons. And every time an individual department finalises its settlements, one of the balloons is popped.’

There couldn’t be a more important time for us to have this conversation.

The NHS is going through what is objectively the worst crisis in its history, whether it’s people struggling to get access to their GP, dialling 999 and an ambulance not arriving in time, turning up to A&E departments and waiting far too long, sometimes on trolleys in corridors, or going through the ordeal of knowing that you’re waiting for a diagnosis that could be the difference between life and death.

We feel really strongly that the best ideas aren’t going to come from politicians in Whitehall.

They’re going to come from staff working right across the country and, crucially, patients, because our experiences as patients are also really important to understanding what the future of the NHS needs to be and what it could be with the right ideas.

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Rachel Reeves will tax businesses to plug £9bn black hole in NHS

The chancellor is set to announce a revenue-raising budget designed to reset Britain’s public finances

Rachel Reeves is set to use one of the most pivotal budgets of recent times to call on businesses to pay more tax to help restore the NHS, amid warnings that the health service has been left with a £9bn hole in its finances.

The chancellor is expected to stake her reputation on a tax-­raising budget designed as a reset of the public finances. She has already had to deal with cabinet skirmishes over funding unveiled alongside the statement. However, Reeves is understood to believe that the public will accept a multibillion-pound hike in business taxes if it is linked to repairing the health system’s finances.

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Tory debate takeaways: a clash of styles, a tame format and a win for Badenoch

Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick took questions from Conservative party members on Thursday night

Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick have faced off for what could be the only televised clash of the Conservative leadership contest. It was not actually a debate: the pair took it in turns to take questions from party members and GB News viewers.

Below are some of the things we learned.

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Use of ‘culture wars’ phrase ‘a dog whistle to attack the right’ Badenoch tells GB News Tory leadership special – as it happened

Contender says ‘it is about being brave and not being scared that the Guardian is going to mock us’

Shabana Mahmood, the justice secretary, has told MPs that magistrates are getting powers to sentence offenders for longer – to reduce the number of prisoners being held on remand and to cut the backlog in crown courts

In a statement to MPs, she said that, although this would increase the prison population slightly, by reducing the number of offenders being held on remand it would free up spaces in reception prisons where overcrowding is particularly serious.

Unless we address our remand population, we could still see a collapse of the system, not because of a lack of cells, but because we do not have those cells in the places that we need them. It is therefore crucial that we bear down on the remand population.

This government inherited a record crown court backlog. Waits for trials have grown so long that some cases are not heard for years.

The impact on victims of crime is profound. For some justice delayed is, as the old saying goes, justice denied as victims choose to withdraw from the justice process altogether rather than face the pain of a protracted legal battle.

I have made it my personal mission to constrain the Kremlin, closing the net around Putin and his mafia state using every tool at my disposal.

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Badenoch and Jenrick spar over visions for future of Tory party in TV debate

Jenrick pledges to ‘end the drama’, while Badenoch calls his plan to exit ECHR ‘a distraction from bigger worries’

Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick have attacked each other’s visions for the future of the Conservative party, in a sometimes low-key debate which could nonetheless prove significant in who becomes the next opposition leader.

The event on GB News, the only debate scheduled, involved the pair taking turns to tackle questions from audience members rather than going head to head, but featured notable differences of opinion on strategy and policies such as immigration.

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PMQs live: Keir Starmer faces Rishi Sunak in the Commons

Latest PMQs comes as sources say chancellor is briefing ministers that £40bn will need to be found in the budget

Robert Jenrick has finished his speech, and he is now taking questions.

Q: Kemi Badenoch says she is Labour’s worst nightmare. Is she right?

I think that our party faces an existential challenge right now. Our party has no divine right to exist. That’s why we need to get the choice right in this leadership election, and that’s why I stand for ending the drama, ending the excuses, and actually delivering for the British people.

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Badenoch accused of ‘stigmatising’ autism and mental health issues in comments over support – UK politics live

The Tory leadership contender came under fire from a former cabinet colleague over her comments in a foreword to an essay

More than 100 venues are backing Martyn’s law to help protect the public from terror attacks, ahead of the second reading of the terrorism (protection of premises) bill in the House of Commons today.

Parts of the bill are named for Martyn Hett, 29, who was killed along with 21 other people when suicide bomber Salman Abedi attacked the Manchester Arena in 2017 at the close of an Ariana Grande concert.

Certainly I feel this is the beginning of the end of the campaign, although there’s a bit to go still. But, yeah, I can see it’s coming to fruition now, finally.

Martyn’s law is never meant to be punitive or onerous, like some people may suggest; it literally is very proportionate.

It depends on the size of the venue, and it’s obviously in two tiers as well, and the standard tier is actually far less restrictions than the bigger venues, 800-plus, who may have to put more stringent measures in place.

One Home Office adviser said the contract notice was signed off while the immigration minister was … Robert Jenrick himself. They argued that his plans would’ve cost nearly £200 million more, over a shorter, six-year period, and lacked the break clauses that the government has now included. Another Labour official added: “It seems Jenrick has lost his memory as well as all that weight.”

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James Cleverly warned MPs that tactical votes could kill his leadership hopes

Dismayed senior Tories predict second contest for head of party will be needed amid chaos after centrist’s shock ejection from race

Paul Goodman: No matter who Tory members choose, the party has a mountain to climb in 2029

James Cleverly launched a last-minute and doomed attempt to stop supportive MPs from trying to manipulate the Tory leadership contest in his favour, after fearing the tactics could accidentally knock him out of the race.

The shadow home secretary’s narrow departure from the contest last week came as a huge shock across the party, coming just a day after he had topped a poll of MPs. As the one remaining centrist candidate, he seemed certain to pick up votes from supporters of one nation Conservative Tom Tugendhat, who had just been knocked out.

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Jenrick denies privately telling Tory MPs he would pivot back to centre if he became leader – as it happened

Tory leadership also suggests it was a mistake for him to order murals at a children’s asylum centre to be painted over

Keir Starmer was “appalled” by reports that Israel deliberately fired on peacekeepers in Lebanon, Downing Street said this morning.

Asked about the prime minister’s reaction to the story, a Downing Street spokesperson said:

We were appalled to hear those reports and it is vital that peacekeepers and civilians are protected.

As you know, we continue to call for an immediate ceasefire and an end to suffering and bloodshed. This is a reminder of the importance of us all renewing our diplomatic efforts.

All parties must always do everything possible to protect civilians and comply with international law. But we continue to reiterate that and call for an immediate ceasefire.

The very hard Brexit forced through by Boris Johnson means that we are for now driving with the economic handbrake on – we can’t let that handbrake off. It is what is, It is difficult to see this being reversed within the next decade.

The truth is it could be a conversation that starts in 10 years’ time. It could be longer, but the beginning of a conversation is not the end of that; it’s not the resolution of our relationship to the European Union.

I think it’ll be very hard to persuade people in the European Union to revisit, to reengage and start getting into another negotiation about Britain’s membership of the European Union, for a long time to come. I’m sorry to say that but they have had up to here with us.

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