Middle East crisis live: Iran steps up campaign to disrupt energy markets as oil price spikes above $100 a barrel

Iran has set ablaze two tankers in Iraqi waters as it increased attacks on oil and transport facilities across the Middle East

An Iranian source is denying the country will allow India-flagged tankers to pass through the vital strait of Hormuz, Reuters is reporting.

The news agency a little earlier quoted an Indian source as saying Iran would in fact allow such tankers to pass through the strait, a key artery for global oil trade.

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Middle East crisis live: Iran steps up campaign to disrupt energy markets as oil price spikes above $100 a barrel

Iran has set ablaze two tankers in Iraqi waters as it increased attacks on oil and transport facilities across the Middle East

An Iranian source is denying the country will allow India-flagged tankers to pass through the vital strait of Hormuz, Reuters is reporting.

The news agency a little earlier quoted an Indian source as saying Iran would in fact allow such tankers to pass through the strait, a key artery for global oil trade.

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Trump says Iran war is ‘very complete, pretty much’ as economic toll rises | First Thing

President delivered a vague and contradictory forecast on the future of the war in Middle East. Plus, how to recognize a psychopath

Good morning.

Donald Trump has said the war in Iran is “very complete, pretty much”, as the economic toll of the joint US-Israeli operation rises, disrupting global oil trade and threatening to engulf the Middle East in a regional war.

Any unintended consequences so far? Among others, it has probably reinforced North Korea’s decision to build a nuclear arsenal.

Do we know yet who bombed the Minab school? Trump blamed Iran without evidence. All the actual evidence indicates the US was responsible.

This is a developing story. Follow the latest updates here.

Who did X say were the most prolific state actors? Russia, followed by Iran and China.

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We attacked Iran with no clear plan for regime change, Israeli security sources say

If regime holds, control of enriched uranium may be ultimate measure of US-Israeli success, insiders say

Israel did not have a realistic plan for regime change when it attacked Iran, multiple Israeli security sources have said, with expectations that airstrikes could lead to a popular uprising having been driven by “wishful thinking” rather than hard intelligence.

Iran has survived nearly two weeks of bombing raids and the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Trump is publicly contemplating ending the increasingly costly war.

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We attacked Iran with no clear plan for regime change, Israeli security sources say

If regime holds, control of enriched uranium may be ultimate measure of US-Israeli success, insiders say

Israel did not have a realistic plan for regime change when it attacked Iran, multiple Israeli security sources have said, with expectations that airstrikes could lead to a popular uprising having been driven by “wishful thinking” rather than hard intelligence.

Iran has survived nearly two weeks of bombing raids and the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Trump is publicly contemplating ending the increasingly costly war.

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Welsh Water apologises as Ofwat sets out £44.7m enforcement plan

Proposed package comes after regulator finds ‘serious and unacceptable breaches’ in how company operates

Welsh Water is to pay a proposed £44.7m after the industry regulator found “serious and unacceptable” breaches in the supplier’s sewage and network services.

Ofwat said Dŵr Cymru Welsh Water failed to properly operate, maintain and upgrade its wastewater network to ensure it could cope with levels of sewage and wastewater, and did not have adequate processes in place or oversight by senior bosses.

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‘America’s mortal enemy’: Pete Hegseth expressed extreme antipathy toward Iran for years

Comments in books, speeches and videos shed new light on defense secretary’s personal commitment to war on Iran

The US defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, has expressed a violent antipathy towards Iran for years in books, Fox News broadcasts, educational videos and a 2018 speech to an Israeli media conference in Jerusalem, a Guardian review has revealed.

In a 2020 book, for example, Hegseth wrote that Iran’s leaders were “actively seeking the military means – especially nuclear weapons – to bring the West to its knees”. And in a 2017 video for PragerU, the hard-right media platform, Hegseth described Iran as “America’s mortal enemy”.

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‘America’s mortal enemy’: Pete Hegseth expressed extreme antipathy toward Iran for years

Comments in books, speeches and videos shed new light on defense secretary’s personal commitment to war on Iran

The US defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, has expressed a violent antipathy towards Iran for years in books, Fox News broadcasts, educational videos and a 2018 speech to an Israeli media conference in Jerusalem, a Guardian review has revealed.

In a 2020 book, for example, Hegseth wrote that Iran’s leaders were “actively seeking the military means – especially nuclear weapons – to bring the West to its knees”. And in a 2017 video for PragerU, the hard-right media platform, Hegseth described Iran as “America’s mortal enemy”.

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Jack Osbourne names baby daughter Ozzy to honour late father

TV star announces birth of Ozzy Matilda Osbourne on social media, alongside image of cuddly bat

Jack Osbourne, the only son of Ozzy and Sharon Osbourne, has honoured his late father by naming his baby daughter after him.

Jack, 40, announced the birth of Ozzy Matilda Osbourne on social media alongside his wife, Aree, who he married in 2023. The newborn Ozzy was pictured lying next to a cuddly bat toy: another reference to his father, who famously bit the head off a real bat during a 1982 concert believing it was made of rubber.

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Jack Osbourne names baby daughter Ozzy to honour late father

TV star announces birth of Ozzy Matilda Osbourne on social media, alongside image of cuddly bat

Jack Osbourne, the only son of Ozzy and Sharon Osbourne, has honoured his late father by naming his baby daughter after him.

Jack, 40, announced the birth of Ozzy Matilda Osbourne on social media alongside his wife, Aree, who he married in 2023. The newborn Ozzy was pictured lying next to a cuddly bat toy: another reference to his father, who famously bit the head off a real bat during a 1982 concert believing it was made of rubber.

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Queensland’s ‘from the river to the sea’ laws likened to Bjelke-Petersen era anti-protest regime

Health minister Tim Nicholls corrects claim alleged Bondi terror attack gunman Naveed Akram used controversial phrase, as laws roundly criticised

Police arresting pro-Palestinian protesters for using the phrase “from the river to the sea” had “all the hallmarks of an authoritarian police state”, according to a Greens MP, amid widespread backlash against Queensland’s new hate speech laws.

The controversial laws went into effect yesterday after passing a vote in parliament last week.

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Queensland’s ‘from the river to the sea’ laws likened to Bjelke-Petersen era anti-protest regime

Health minister Tim Nicholls corrects claim alleged Bondi terror attack gunman Naveed Akram used controversial phrase, as laws roundly criticised

Police arresting pro-Palestinian protesters for using the phrase “from the river to the sea” had “all the hallmarks of an authoritarian police state”, according to a Greens MP, amid widespread backlash against Queensland’s new hate speech laws.

The controversial laws went into effect yesterday after passing a vote in parliament last week.

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‘Sly stowaway’ UK fox finds new home at Bronx Zoo after illicit transatlantic trip

The fox is said to be ‘settling in well’ after mischievous 3,400 mile journey from Southampton to New York

A sly fox slipped on to a cargo ship and travelled from Southampton to New York, according to officials at Bronx Zoo.

The zoo, which is looking after the animal, said it appears healthy after early examinations.

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SA Liberals dump candidate who said homosexuality ‘opens up demonic realms’ after initially standing by him

Party leader Ashton Hurn confirms Carston Woodhouse will not run for Liberals in SA’s state election, but says ‘people are entitled to have their views’

A Liberal candidate in South Australia’s upcoming state election has been dumped after his “shocking and extreme” views on abortion, same-sex marriage, gender transitioning and feminism were aired by his Labor rival.

The leader of the SA Liberals, Ashton Hurn, on Wednesday stood by Carston Woodhouse, who had been running for the seat of Wright in Adelaide’s north, after his appearances on the evangelical Christian podcast ElijahFire surfaced.

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SA Liberals dump candidate who said homosexuality ‘opens up demonic realms’ after initially standing by him

Party leader Ashton Hurn confirms Carston Woodhouse will not run for Liberals in SA’s state election, but says ‘people are entitled to have their views’

A Liberal candidate in South Australia’s upcoming state election has been dumped after his “shocking and extreme” views on abortion, same-sex marriage, gender transitioning and feminism were aired by his Labor rival.

The leader of the SA Liberals, Ashton Hurn, on Wednesday stood by Carston Woodhouse, who had been running for the seat of Wright in Adelaide’s north, after his appearances on the evangelical Christian podcast ElijahFire surfaced.

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John Lewis pays first annual staff bonus in four years as profits rise

Payment of 2% at employee-owned partnership follows sales increase to £13.4bn

The owner of John Lewis and Waitrose has paid an annual bonus to workers for the first time in four years after underlying profits rose by 6%.

The retail group’s 69,000 employees – which it calls partners – will share £35m, the equivalent of 2% of salary, after it recorded an increase in sales and profits. The payout amounts to about one extra week of pay.

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Robodebt was the great test of Australia’s accountability mechanisms – and they failed

The final report into the Centrelink debt recovery process that wreaked havoc on the vulnerable is not the full-stop many wanted. It has not restored the trust that was so fundamentally broken

The whistleblower’s message landed just before Christmas.

It was 2016, now a distant memory.

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Thursday briefing: What an Iran negotiator thinks could happen next – and why Trump still has an off-ramp

In today’s newsletter: Robert Malley, who led talks for the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, helps make sense of the war

Good morning, and apologies for the interruption to your usual programming. Stepping out from behind the editing desk to write today’s newsletter feels somewhat like a player-manager throwing himself on to the pitch, but I’ll try not to destabilise your morning routine too much. Lord knows, the world doesn’t need any more chaos.

Since the US and Israel first attacked Iran two weeks ago, it’s been a scramble to keep up with events. The death of a supreme leader, speculation about his successor, global implications ranging from oil price spikes to drones raining down on once-safe cities like Doha and Dubai – the world has rarely felt so unstable.

Iran | Iran dramatically escalated its strategy of striking civilian infrastructure and transport networks across the Gulf on Wednesday, attacking commercial ships and targeting Dubai’s international airport as US and Israeli warplanes launched new waves of strikes on the Islamic Republic.

UK news | Keir Starmer overruled officials who warned of a “reputational risk” in making Peter Mandelson US ambassador, despite being handed a dossier of evidence about the peer’s relationship with the sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, documents reveal.

Artificial intelligence | Popular AI chatbots helped researchers plot violent attacks, including bombing synagogues and assassinating politicians, with one telling a user posing as a would-be school shooter: “Happy (and safe) shooting!”

Oil | The International Energy Agency is poised to call for the largest release of government oil reserves in its history to help calm the oil price shock triggered by the US-Israeli attacks on Iran.

UK politics | Keir Starmer warned his cabinet against an “overly deferential” approach to the Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish governments, telling ministers they should be prepared to make spending decisions “even when devolved governments may oppose this”, according to a leaked memo.

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‘Invasive’ AI-led mass surveillance in Africa violating freedoms, warn experts

Countries across the continent have spent more than $2bn on Chinese tracking technology that is not ‘necessary or proportionate’, new report finds

The rapid expansion of AI-powered mass-surveillance systems across Africa is violating citizens’ right to privacy and having a chilling effect on society, according to experts on human rights and emerging technologies.

At least $2bn (£1.5bn) has been spent by 11 African governments on Chinese-built surveillance technology that recognises faces and monitors movements, according to a new report by the Institute of Development Studies, which warns that national security is being used to justify implementing these systems with little regulation.

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European drivers face €220 a year jump in fuel costs due to Iran conflict, say experts

Exclusive: Oil at $100 a barrel means higher prices in the EU and UK, making savings for those with electric vehicles even greater, analysts say

European drivers face paying an extra €220 (£190) a year at the pumps because of the surge in oil prices caused by the war in Iran, analysts have warned. In the UK, a separate estimate puts the cost at an extra £140.

A sustained oil price of $100 a barrel, the level seen on Monday, would mean motorists in the EU paying €55bn more over a year, researchers at the Transport & Environment (T&E) thinktank estimated. That is the equivalent of an average of €220 for each driver, with higher-mileage drivers facing even bigger hikes. The assessment was made by comparing data from 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed the oil price to the $100 mark, with data from 2017-2019.

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