Russia could be ready to attack Nato within five years, says secretary general

In speech in London Mark Rutte says he expects alliance members to agree to raise military spending to 5% of GDP

Russia could be ready to attack Nato within five years and leaders of the western alliance are expected to agree to increase military spending to 5% of GDP this month to contain the threat, the alliance’s secretary general has said.

Mark Rutte said in a speech in London on Monday that Nato needed “a quantum leap in our collective defence”, which would include significant rearmament to deter an increasingly militarised Russia.

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Winter fuel payments U-turn likely to lead to higher taxes or other welfare cuts, says IFS director – UK politics live

Treasury says move to restore the funding for most pensioners will cost around £1.25bn

The Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats are both trying to take credit for the winter fuel payments U-turn by the government.

This is from Kemi Badenoch, the Tory leader.

Keir Starmer has scrambled to clear up a mess of his own making. I repeatedly challenged him to reverse his callous decision to withdraw winter fuel payments, and every time Starmer arrogantly dismissed my criticisms.

This humiliating U-turn will come as scant comfort to the pensioners forced to choose between heating and eating last winter. The prime minister should now apologise for his terrible judgement.

Finally the chancellor has listened to the Liberal Democrats and the tireless campaigners in realising how disastrous this policy was, but the misery it has caused cannot be overstated.

Countless pensioners were forced to choose between heating and eating all whilst the government buried its head in the sand for months on end, ignoring those who were really suffering.

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Nigel Farage’s pitch for Welsh elections: bring back coalmining

Reform leader says steel and coal industries can be revived but does not say how beyond ‘scrapping net zero’

Nigel Farage has demanded the reopening of domestic coalmines to provide fuel for new blast furnaces, arguing that Welsh people would happily return to mining if the pay was sufficiently high.

Speaking at an event in Port Talbot, the south Wales town traditionally associated with the steel industry, the Reform UK leader said it was in the “national interest” to have a guaranteed supply of steel, as well as UK-produced fuel for the furnaces, a close echo of Donald Trump’s repeated pledges to return heavy industry to the US.

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Cuts to UK’s global vaccination funding would risk avoidable child deaths, experts warn

Exclusive: Scientists also say any reduction in Foreign Office funding for vaccine alliance Gavi would harm UK’s soft power

Any cut in UK funding to a global vaccination group would damage soft power and could make British less resilient to infectious diseases, as well as causing avoidable deaths among children, leading vaccine and aid experts have warned.

Scientists including Sir Andrew Pollard, who led the development of the Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid vaccine, said a major cut in money for the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation (Gavi) could also make the UK less able to respond to a future pandemic.

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Senior medics in England say more resident doctor strikes would be futile

Exclusive: Letter from six top figures says more walkouts by junior colleagues would help those who oppose the NHS

Six senior figures in England’s medical profession have criticised potential strikes by resident doctors as “a futile gesture” that will harm patients and help those who oppose the NHS.

The move is the first public evidence of the significant unease many senior doctors feel about the possibility of their junior colleagues staging a new campaign of industrial action in England.

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Will the North Sea oil and gas industry be Labour’s next U-turn?

With Nigel Farage targeting net zero, could government policy change to protect jobs, revenue and votes?

It was inevitable that Nigel Farage would take Reform UK’s campaign tour to Aberdeen. On a visit to the capital of the UK’s oil and gas industry on Monday he welcomed a defecting Aberdeen Conservative councillor, the 13th defection to his party’s ranks in Scotland to date.

Reform is hoping to make political hay from the discontent surrounding the government’s North Sea policies, the demise of the oil and gas basin and the vast workforce that depends on it. The populist party has vowed to reverse the government’s ban on fresh North Sea oil and gas drilling as a “day one” priority if elected to power in 2029.

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Tulip Siddiq requests meeting with Bangladeshi leader over corruption allegation

Ex-minister wants to clear up ‘misunderstanding’ over accusation she benefitted from regime of her aunt, ousted Bangladeshi PM Sheikh Hasina

The former City minister Tulip Siddiq has asked to meet Bangladesh’s leader during his London visit to clear up a “misunderstanding” after corruption allegations made by his administration led her to resign from the UK government.

Siddiq, whose aunt Sheikh Hasina was put on trial in absentia last week over crimes against humanity during her 15 years as prime minister, has been accused of benefitting from the former regime by the authorities in the Bangladeshi capital, Dhaka.

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Ministers commit to £86bn for ‘breakthrough’ UK science and tech R&D

Mayors welcome £500m set aside for regional authorities to target investment locally

New drug treatments, longer-lasting batteries and developing artificial intelligence are among research projects that will receive funding as part of an £86bn government investment into science and technology.

Ministers have announced a £22.5bn a year commitment in research and development (R&D) over the next four years, including up to £500m for regional authorities to target the investment locally.

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NHS England to give urgent help away from A&E to cut ‘corridor care’

Move is part of £450m Wes Streeting plan to tackle long delays and end hospital overcrowding

Hundreds of thousands of patients needing urgent medical help will be treated in settings other than A&E as part of a drive to cut “corridor care” and avoid another NHS winter crisis.

The move is a central plank of a government plan to improve urgent and emergency care in England, tackle the long delays many patients face in A&E and banish overcrowding in hospitals.

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Badenoch to ‘get better’ at media and PMQs, says Stride, as he backs her as leader – UK politics live

Shadow chancellor says Badenoch ‘is the person to lead us’ and compares her to Thatcher, who ‘in the end, got it together’

Stride stresses the need for politicians to consider policy carefully, saying this is harder in the era of social media.

The digital age has many advantages, but in some ways, it has ushered in the death of what we might call the age of thoughtfulness, by which I mean, the careful consideration of arguments in order to establish the truth …

Audiences are increasingly attracted to the fleeting sparkle of the novel or shocking or celebrity, or in some cases simply the fake, and that risks allowing attractive but shallow arguments to take hold.

The fact is, for a large swathe of the population, our economy simply has not been working for them for some considerable time.

Incomes have stagnated. Many feel that the system only works for the benefit of others, for large corporations or people from other countries, but not for them and their families.

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Labour’s £13.2bn warm homes plan will not face cuts in spending review

Source confirms decision that will help meet net zero targets and pledge to cut energy bills by £300

Ministers have decided not to cut Labour’s landmark £13.2bn fund to fix draughty homes and install heat pumps and solar panels in next week’s spending review, it has emerged.

A government source confirmed Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, would not be making cuts to the flagship warm homes plan. The decision, which was first reported by the Daily Telegraph, marks a victory for Ed Miliband in his negotiations with the Treasury over the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero’s budget.

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Keir Starmer calls Israel’s recent actions in Gaza ‘appalling and intolerable’

PM tells MPs he is considering imposing sanctions on Israeli government members but is resisting ban on arms sales

Keir Starmer has called Israel’s recent actions in Gaza “appalling, counterproductive and intolerable”, as the UK government comes under mounting pressure to take stronger action after the killings of dozens of civilians at food points in recent days.

The prime minister told MPs on Wednesday the UK was considering imposing sanctions on members of the Israeli government, but is so far resisting growing calls for a complete ban on arms sales and immediate recognition of Palestine.

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Hungary postpones vote on law to curb foreign-funded organisations

Orbán’s ruling party delays vote on legislation allowing government to ban organisations with foreign funding

Hungary’s ruling party has postponed a planned vote on draft legislation aimed at organisations that receive foreign funding, following weeks of protests and warnings that the law would “starve and strangle” civil society and independent media.

Viktor Orbán’s rightwing populist party, Fidesz, put forward legislation last month that would allow the government to monitor, penalise and potentially ban organisations that receive any sort of foreign funding, including donations or EU grants.

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France plans to begin intercepting small boats at sea, says UK Home Office

Officials have agreed to begin offshore interceptions, it is claimed, in change of policy that NGOs say will risk lives

The French government plans to begin intercepting small boats carrying asylum seekers even if they are already at sea, a Home Office source has said.

In a move that NGOs claim will endanger lives, it was claimed that French officials agreed this week to draw up plans to begin intervening in waters close to beaches and inland canals.

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Ministers offer concessions on AI and copyright to avoid fifth Lords defeat

Exclusive: Data bill faces being shelved amid standoff over plans to allow AI firms to use copyrighted content

Defiant peers have delivered an ultimatum to offer artists copyright protection against artificial intelligence or risk losing a key piece of legislation.

The government suffered a fifth defeat in the House of Lords over controversial plans to allow the AI companies to train their models using copyrighted material.

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100,000 UK taxpayer accounts hit in £47m phishing attack on HMRC

MPs on Treasury committee hear that those affected were being contacted and would face ‘no financial loss’

HM Revenue & Customs has lost £47m after a phishing scam breached tens of thousands of tax accounts, a group of MPs has heard.

Two senior civil servants at the tax authority told the Treasury committee that 100,000 people had been contacted, or were in the process of being contacted, after their accounts were locked down in what the officials said was an “organised crime” incident that began last year.

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James Cleverly takes on Kemi Badenoch over decision to ditch net zero targets

Senior Tory to give speech in which he will criticise ‘neo-luddites’ on right for failing to embrace green technology

James Cleverly has taken direct aim at Kemi Badenoch’s decision to ditch net zero targets by criticising what he called “neo-luddites” on the right who seemed scared of using green technologies to protect the environment.

The senior Tory MP, who lost to Badenoch in last year’s Conservative leadership race, said it was a false choice to believe the UK had to choose between economic growth and protecting the environment. Badenoch has argued current net zero targets will harm the economy.

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Rachel Reeves to announce £15bn in transport spending amid questions over police cuts – UK politics live

Chancellor will give speech in Greater Manchester, while police leaders have written to the PM over potential cuts in next week’s spending review

Good morning. A week today Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, will unveil the outcome of the spending review, which will set spending budgets – day-to-day (“resource”) and capital – covering most of the rest of this parliament. Many departments will get resource budgets that feel like cuts, but the Treasury has a more positive story to tell on capital spending and today Reeves is giving a speech announcing a £15bn spending spree on transport projects, mostly in the north of England.

Pippa Crerar and Jessica Elgot have all the details in our splash story.

We are deeply concerned that the settlement for policing and the [NCA], without additional investment, risks a retrenchment to what we saw under austerity. This would have far-reaching consequences.

Policing and the NCA have seen a sustained period where income has not kept pace with demand. Often, this has been masked by attempts to defer costs in the hope of more income in future, but that now leaves policing with very limited room for manoeuvre.

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Home Office accused of ‘racist crackdown’ on Nigerians after denial of visit visa

Officials refused entry to man who runs top security firm in Nigeria and his family to spend holiday with his sister

The Home Office has been accused of a “racist crackdown on Nigerians” after refusing a visa to a man who runs one of the west African country’s top security firms for a holiday to see his family.

Samuel Onyekachi Ibeawuchi runs BKay Security Ltd, which provides close protection for high-profile people in Nigeria and abroad. He and his wife, a successful businesswoman, had applied to come to the UK with their 18-month-old child for three weeks in the summer so they could spend time with his sister, Hope Ibeawuchi-Beales, and her husband, Nick Beales, who is head of campaigning at Ramfel, which supports vulnerable migrants.

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