UK government borrows more than expected in setback before budget

October figures represent final snapshot of public finances before Rachel Reeves’s tax and spending statement

Rachel Reeves was urged to use next week’s budget to create significantly more headroom against her fiscal rules, after official figures showed the UK government borrowed almost £10bn more than forecast in the year to October.

In the final snapshot of the public finances before the chancellor’s crunch budget, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said borrowing – the difference between public spending and income – was £17.4bn last month.

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Andy Burnham calls on Labour to rethink plans to make it tougher for asylum seekers to settle permanently – UK politics live

The home secretary’s plans ‘may leave people in a sense of limbo and unable to integrate’, Burnham said

Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, is giving a speech in Salford this afternoon where he will set out details of his “good growth” plans, but he has already explained much of it overnight in a news release.

Explaining what his “new model of economic growth” is, the Greater Manchester Combined Authority (the body Burnham runs) says:

Over the past decade, the city region has become the fastest growing part of the UK economy, driven by a high-performing centre unrecognisable from even 15 years ago.

Our trailblazing devolution deals and unique partnership approach have fuelled annual growth of 3.1 per cent – more than double the rate of the country as a whole. A recent report from Oxford Economics praised Greater Manchester’s growth journey, calling us a “trailblazer for local devolution.”

A new strategic partnership between GMCA and GMPF [Greater Manchester Pension Fund] – the first of its kind in the country – will prioritise local investment and align the GMPF’s investment to our integrated pipeline. Projects in the integrated pipeline will be able to access patient capital that aims for sustainable growth and long-term impact.

We’ll invest in a way that makes the most of every pound, delivering social as well as economic benefits.

Our Greater Manchester baccalaureate is transforming technical education, giving young people a clear line of sight to high quality jobs in our growing economy, and we’re helping residents to live healthier, happier lives and access new employment and training opportunities through our Live Well approach.

Underpinning all this is the Bee Network – our safe, green and affordable public transport system, which is seamlessly connecting people and places like never before. Next year eight rail lines will be brought into the network, which already includes bus, rail, tram, and active travel routes.

I appreciate the support, but I couldn’t have brought forward a plan of the kind I brought forward today [his Manchester “good growth” plan] without being fully focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester.

And I’m providing leadership on growth, which is what I think the country needs, and is helpful to the government right now.

And we’re doing this in advance of the budget, I hope, to really bring to life the growth story for the government.

I would just finish by saying this; I think part of the country’s problem is the political culture of Westminster, which is playing out in front of us right now. You go to Manchester, and we’ve built a new economy, and a new way of doing politics, and more of that is what the country needs.

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Thursday briefing: What fresh claims of racism and antisemitism at school mean for Nigel Farage

In today’s newsletter: With the Reform leader now a serious contender for PM, we look at the impact the allegations about his behaviour as a schoolboy could have on Britain

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Good morning. For more than 30 years, Nigel Farage has been one of the most disruptive figures in British politics, known for building a brand on outrage and polarisation. He presents himself as the everyman, cigarette hanging out of his mouth or a pint in hand.

Now that several polls suggest he is a serious contender to be the next prime minister, it feels high time to ask: what’s the background of this supposed man of the people? The latest Guardian exclusive digs deep into just that question, where allegations from more than a dozen school contemporaries of Farage recount incidents of deeply offensive behaviour throughout his teenage years. This is not the whole picture. Others who knew Farage then remember he was bumptious, rude, provocative and enjoyed being the centre of attention, and do not recall the alleged behaviour.

US news | Donald Trump has signed a bill directing the justice department to release files from the investigation into the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, surrendering in the face of joint pressure from Democratic opponents and the president’s conservative base.

UK news | Up to 50,000 nurses could quit the UK over the government’s immigration proposals, plunging the NHS into its biggest ever workforce crisis, research suggests.

Middle East | Israel used widely banned cluster munitions in its recent 13-month war in Lebanon, photos of munition remnants in south Lebanon seen by the Guardian suggest.

Ukraine | US and Russian officials have quietly drafted a new plan to end the war in Ukraine that would require Kyiv to surrender territory and severely limit the size of its military, according to reports.

Health | The world’s largest study into key substances in the bloodstream has paved the way for a swathe of pinprick tests that can detect early signs of disease more than a decade before symptoms appear, researchers say.

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Up to 50,000 nurses could quit UK over immigration plans, survey suggests

Exclusive: union leaders say proposed changes are immoral and could threaten patient safety if there is staff exodus

Up to 50,000 nurses could quit the UK over the government’s immigration proposals, plunging the NHS into its biggest ever workforce crisis, research suggests.

Keir Starmer has vowed to curb net migration, with plans to force migrants to wait as long as 10 years to apply to settle in the UK instead of automatically gaining settled status after five years.

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Allegations about Farage’s conduct as schoolboy ‘disturbing’, says No 10 – UK politics live

The Guardian spoke to more than a dozen contemporaries of Farage at Dulwich college, a public school in south London

Healey is now taking questions.

Q: How close are are we to war?

It is Labour that is the party of defence.

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Mahmood and Lammy breached human rights law over segregation of prisoner, judge finds

Treatment of terrorist with known mental health needs said to have contravened prohibition on inhuman or degrading treatment

Shabana Mahmood and David Lammy have been found to have breached a prohibition on inhuman or degrading treatment with respect to a prisoner who spent months segregated from other inmates, in what is believed to be a legal first.

Sahayb Abu was confined to his cell at HMP Woodhill in Milton Keynes, for 22 hours a day and prevented from associating with other prisoners for more than four months after Hashem Abedi, the brother of the Manchester Arena bomber, allegedly attacked prison officers at HMP Frankland.

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Wes Streeting defends asylum system shake-up despite his unease

Health secretary says he is not comfortable with some elements of policy but that it is the right thing to do for the country

Wes Streeting has admitted he is not comfortable with forcibly deporting families under the home secretary’s migration plans, while maintaining it is still the right thing to do.

The health secretary said he thought the number of forced removals would be low under the proposed model, which is similar to Denmark’s, because there would be an increased financial incentive for people entering the UK illegally to return to their country of origin.

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Watch out for online contact with Chinese spies, UK defence minister warns public

After MI5 issues China espionage alert to parliament, Luke Pollard says message should be heeded by all citizens

Ordinary UK citizens need to watch out for online contact with Chinese spies, the defence minister has said, after MI5 issued an espionage alert to parliament.

Luke Pollard said a warning given to parliamentarians on Tuesday that China was attempting to recruit individuals with access to sensitive information should also be heeded by the public at large.

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Reform’s plan to cut EU citizens’ benefits would risk trade war with Europe, Labour claims – UK politics live

As Reform announces what it claims are £25bn in savings through cuts, Labour says ‘Farage’s fantasy numbers don’t add up’

Alf Dubs, the Labour peer and former MP who came to the UK on Kindertransport in 1939 and who campaigns on behalf of migrants, told the Today programme this morning that he was “depressed” by the asylum politicies announced by the government yesterday. He explained:

I find it upsetting that we’ve got to adopt such a hard line – what we need is a bit of compassion in our politics, and I think that some of the measures were going in the wrong direction, they won’t help.

The hard line approach will not, in fact, deter people from coming here – at least on the basis of people I spoke to in Calais, for example – I don’t think it will deter them.

I think there is a proper case for children, there’s a proper case for family reunion – when there are children who are on their own and who’ve got family in this country, then I think the right thing to do is to have family reunion and bringing children over here.

But to use children as a weapon, as the home secretary is doing, I think is a shabby thing – I’m lost for words, frankly, because my concern was that if we remove people who come here, what happens if they’ve had children in the meantime?

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Tuesday briefing: What Labour hopes to learn from Denmark’s hardline asylum stance

In today’s newsletter: Shabana Mahmood is pitching radical new limits on whether asylum seekers can ever gain settled status – but it may come with political consequences

Good morning. In September, Nigel Farage floated a Reform UK policy of ending indefinite leave to remain that critics said would eject hundreds of thousands of people from the country. In October, the Conservatives began talking about deporting large numbers of people previously considered legally settled. Now, the Labour government is preparing to impose radical new limits on whether asylum seekers can ever gain settled status. The Overton window on immigration keeps marching implacably rightwards.

In a document published by the government yesterday afternoon, the home secretary, Shabana Mahmood, described the plans as “the most sweeping asylum reforms in modern times”. The prime minister, Keir Starmer, said that having an asylum system at all depends on “social confidence” that it is “fair, effective and humane”. A lot of Labour MPs look set to disagree with the approach, causing yet another political headache for No 10.

Society | More than two in five sexually active under-18s in the UK have either been strangled or strangled someone during sex, research has found, despite the serious dangers of the practice.

Jeffrey Epstein | The Harvard professor and economist Larry Summers said he would step back from public life after documents released by the House oversight committee revealed email exchanges between him and Jeffrey Epstein, who called himself Summers’ “wing man”.

Cop30 | Jamaica has led calls from vulnerable nations at the Cop30 climate summit to urge immediate action on climate breakdown as the conference entered its second week.

Gaza | The UN security council has endorsed proposals put forward by Donald Trump for a lasting peace in Gaza, including the deployment of an international stabilisation force and a possible path to a sovereign Palestinian state.

Poland | Poland’s prime minister Donald Tusk has described an explosion along a section of railway line used for deliveries to Ukraine as an “unprecedented act of sabotage” that could have led to disaster.

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Families of IRA victims in England told new Troubles bill could revive path to justice

Security minister Dan Jarvis says scrapping immunity scheme would give relatives a renewed chance for answers

The families of more than 70 people killed by the IRA and other paramilitaries in unsolved attacks on English soil can once again hope for justice under the new Northern Ireland Troubles bill, the UK government has claimed.

As MPs in the House of Commons prepared to debate the bill for the first time on Tuesday, the Home Office said there remained 77 unsolved killings, including 39 British armed forces personnel in English towns and cities, from the time of the Troubles. It said more than 1,000 people were injured in the attacks.

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Shabana Mahmood tells MPs asylum system is ‘out of control and unfair’ amid Labour backlash over proposals – UK politics live

Labour MP calls government’s asylum plans ‘dystopian’ as home secretary announces measures in Commons

Momentum, the leftwing Labour group, has also denounced the government’s asylum plans. In a statement it says:

The home secretary’s new immigration plans are divisive and xenophobic.

Scapegoating migrants will not fix our public services or end austerity.

Draconian, unworkable and potentially illegal anti-asylum policies only feed Reform’s support.

The government has learnt nothing from the period since the general election.

Some of the legal changes being proposed are truly frightening:

Abolishing the right to a family life would ultimately affect many more people than asylum-seekers.

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Shabana Mahmood plans to remove more families from UK in asylum shake-up

Home secretary will also consult on ending financial support for those with children if refused asylum, document shows

The government has failed to show the “necessary toughness” to enforce the removal of families whose asylum claims have been refused, Shabana Mahmood has claimed.

In a policy document published on Monday as the government sets out plans for the biggest shake-up of asylum laws in 40 years, the home secretary also set out plans to consult on measures to allow the removal of financial support for families with children under the age of 18 if they have been refused asylum.

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Shabana Mahmood warns Labour MPs ‘dark forces are stirring up anger’ over migration

There is understood to be growing unease in party over home secretary’s sweeping overhaul of refugee rights

Shabana Mahmood has warned Labour MPs that “dark forces are stirring up anger” over migration, amid growing alarm among senior party figures over the most sweeping overhaul of refugee rights in a generation.

On Monday, Mahmood will announce controversial new laws to overhaul refugee status, which must be reassessed every two years, as well as curbing asylum appeals and toughening the approach to rights to family life.

Restricting asylum seekers to one single appeal rather than different appeals on multiple grounds.

Creating a new body for fast-tracking cases for dangerous criminals and those with little hope of success.

Legislating to restrict last-minute modern slavery claims

Joining other countries in seeking reform of ECHR article 3 rights, to more narrowly define the risk of torture and degrading treatment.

Changing the Home Office’s duty to provide support to asylum seekers to a discretionary power, enabling them to potentially be removed from accommodation.

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Angela Rayner condemns Labour infighting but does not rule out running for leader

Home secretary Shabana Mahmood calls past week of leadership speculation ‘deeply mortifying’

Angela Rayner has condemned the “arrogant tittle-tattle” and Labour infighting dominating the past week in her first major interview since her resignation.

The former deputy prime minister, often considered as a potential successor to Keir Starmer, declined to rule out running for the job or returning to frontline politics, saying she had “not gone away”.

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Illegal migration is ‘tearing our country apart’ and system is broken, says Shabana Mahmood – as it happened

Home secretary says it is ‘moral mission’ for her to tackle asylum system. This live blog is closed

Ukrainians are in the UK on a “bespoke scheme”, Mahmood says, and it is on a temporary basis.

If Ukraine becomes a safe country again and the conflict ends, “the principle of the new reforms are that if your country becomes safe then you will return,” she says.

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Asylum system in UK ‘out of control’ and dividing country, home secretary says

Shabana Mahmood to unveil new proposals modelled on Denmark’s controversial system

Refugees who have established lives with homes and families in the UK – including Ukrainians – will still face having to return if their home countries become safe, the home secretary has said.

Shabana Mahmood said the asylum system was “out of control and putting huge pressure on communities” as she announced plans to end the permanent status of refugees, who would need to reapply to remain in Britain every two and a half years.

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Nature not a blocker to housing growth, inquiry finds

Commons committee report challenges ‘lazy narrative’ used by ministers that scapegoats wildlife and the environment

Nature is not a blocker to housing growth, an inquiry by MPs has found, in direct conflict with claims made by ministers.

Toby Perkins, the Labour chair of the environmental audit committee, said nature was being scapegoated, and that rather than being a block to growth, it was necessary for building resilient towns and neighbourhoods.

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Treasury won’t cut threshold for higher rate income tax, say sources – UK politics live

Fallout continues over budget income tax U-turn, with Treasury saying expected fiscal gap has dropped to £20bn

This is from Helen Miller, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies thinktank, on the market reaction to the chancellor’s reported budget U-turn.

Investors will have 2 broad concerns about news that Chancellor won’t increase income tax rates

1. Does it signal less willingness to do politically difficult things

Britain’s long-term borrowing costs were sent soaring as reports suggested the latest U-turn would leave Rachel Reeves scrambling to fill a gaping black hole in the nation’s finances just two weeks before the 26 November budget.

Yields on 30-year UK government bonds, also known as gilts, jumped as much as 14 basis points in early trading, and the yield on 10-year gilts also shot up 12 basis points – rising the most since July.

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Satisfaction with democracy below 50% in eight out of nine western countries, poll finds

Ipsos survey reveals fake news, lack of accountability, extremism and corruption seen as biggest threats

Satisfaction with democracy is below 50% in eight out of nine western countries surveyed in a poll, and majorities in all but one fear for its future, with fake news, lack of political accountability, extremism and corruption seen as the biggest threats.

An Ipsos survey of almost 10,000 people in Croatia, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Sweden, the UK and the US found satisfaction with democracy low in all except Sweden, with deep concerns about the future state of electoral politics.

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