Category Archives: Economics

Shares in UK gambling firms fall £3bn amid talk of higher taxes in budget

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Thinktank reports saying sector should be hit with extra £900m to £3bn in levies prompts market selloff

Shares in British gambling companies have dropped sharply, reducing the stock market value of large operators by more than £3bn, after the Guardian reported that Treasury officials could tap the sector for between £900m and £3bn in extra taxes.

The chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has come under pressure from two influential thinktanks to raise taxes on the industry, as she pulls every available lever to plug a £22bn “black hole” in the nation’s finances.

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Labour considers up to £3bn tax raid on gambling firms

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Treasury weighing proposals as chancellor attempts to plug £22bn hole in public finances

Ministers are considering a tax raid of up to £3bn on the gambling sector as Rachel Reeves casts around for funds to shore up the public finances.

Treasury officials are understood to be weighing up proposals, put forward by two influential thinktanks and backed by one of the party’s top five individual donors, to double some of the taxes levied on online casinos and bookmakers.

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Will Rachel Reeves’s rules on debt and spending survive the budget?

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The chancellor desperately needs more money to finance growth and public spending so expect a bit of tweaking to supposedly strict constraints

Change*. If Labour’s one-word campaign slogan had an asterisk, it would have directed voters to Rachel Reeves’s budget.

Later this month the chancellor will attempt to walk the line between repairing Britain’s battered public realm, while sticking to a manifesto promise to balance the books without raising taxes on working people.

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Labour needs £25bn a year in tax rises to rebuild public services, warns IFS

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Thinktank says tax increases in budget will be necessary even if Rachel Reeves changes fiscal rules

Keir Starmer’s promise to end austerity and rebuild public services will require tax increases of £25bn a year in the coming budget even if debt rules are changed to provide scope for extra investment spending, a leading thinktank has said.

In its preview of the first Labour budget in 14 years, the Institute for Fiscal Studies said Rachel Reeves would need to raise taxes to fresh record levels to meet the government’s policy goals. The chancellor was also warned of the risk of a Liz Truss-style meltdown if the City responded badly to substantially higher borrowing.

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Chinese stocks suffer worst fall in 27 years over growth concerns

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Investors disappointed after hoped-for policy plans by Beijing to stimulate economy failed to materialise

Chinese stocks have suffered their worst fall in 27 years after efforts by Beijing to stimulate the world’s second-largest economy disappointed investors.

Stock markets in Asia fell sharply after China’s top economic planning authority failed to announce further measures to improve flagging growth.

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Wednesday briefing: Inside Labour’s plan to move the fiscal goalposts – and tackle debt

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In today’s newsletter: Rachel Reeves calculates that changing debt rules could help boost the UK economy, but what does it really mean?

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Good morning.

There are just three weeks to go until the biggest fiscal and political event for any government: the budget.

Middle East | Israel has said it is expanding its ground operation in Lebanon with the deployment of a fourth division after another night of intense airstrikes. The reservist 146th division was sent to southern Lebanon overnight, meaning the number of troops on the ground is now likely to number 15,000. The Lebanese health ministry said late on Tuesday 36 people have been killed and 150 have been injured in Israeli attacks over the past 24 hours.

Environment | Florida’s western coast was making emergency preparations on Tuesday for the impact of Hurricane Milton, with thousands of evacuees clogging highways, contending with fuel shortages, and the mayor of Tampa warning residents bluntly “you are going to die” if they stayed behind.

Conservatives | James Cleverly has topped the latest MPs’ vote in the Conservative leadership contest, making him the new favourite, as Tom Tugendhat became the latest candidate to be eliminated.

Poverty | More than 9 million people in the UK experience levels of poverty and hunger so extreme they are vulnerable to reliance on charity food handouts, according to research by the charity Trussell.

Society | Deaths have outstripped births in the UK for the first time in almost half a century, excluding the start of the pandemic, official figures showed.

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Financial markets could still avoid panic amid oil price risk in Middle East crisis

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Oil prices rose by more than 4% as Israeli troops moved into Lebanon and Iran launched missiles on Israel

As Israeli troops moved into Lebanon and Iran launched a missile attack on Israel, the risk of a jump in oil prices that could trigger another global inflation shock appeared to be materialising.

Oil prices rose by more than 4% to about $75 a barrel on Tuesday.

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In Las Vegas, housing could make or break the battle for the White House

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Nevada, once known for its low living costs, has seen house prices soar and rents climb – can Trump take advantage?

It’s 105F (41C) in the Las Vegas suburb of Henderson, about 20 miles away from the bustle of tourists on the Vegas strip. Front yards have small pebbles instead of grass, and signs that welcome the start of autumn seem premature in the sweltering heat.

Andrew Clarke knocks on the door of a ranch-style house. A dog barks aggressively from inside. “Hi, my name’s Andrew. I’m an organizer with For Our Future Nevada. Is Jennifer available?” Clarke asks in an upbeat voice. The voice says Jennifer doesn’t live there any more.

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Kamala Harris’s economic policy slate more popular than Trump’s – poll

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Exclusive: Harris Poll for Guardian finds Democrat put forward four of top five most popular economic proposals

Kamala Harris’s economic policies proved far more popular than Donald Trump’s plans in a blind test of their proposals.

Four of the top five most popular proposals were from the Democratic candidate’s campaign, according to a new Harris Poll conducted exclusively for the Guardian.

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Reeves’ economy inheritance claim one of Labour’s ‘biggest lies’, Hunt tells Tory conference – UK politics live

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The shadow chancellor said he ‘would have died’ to have had the legacy Rachel Reeves had when he took over

Robert Jenrick has used a campaign rally just outside the Conservative conference to paint the issue of migration in highly stark terms, saying his party will “die” if it does not commit to quitting the European convention on human rights. (See 8.23am.)

Speaking to supporters in a studio theatre at Birmingham Rep, Jenrick repeated his styling of the issue in Brexit terms, saying the choice was between the “leave” of leaving the ECHR or “remain” of staying in it, and that this was a chance to “get migration done”.

This is more than just, ‘leave or amend’ – frankly, our party doesn’t have a future unless we take a stand and fix this problem. It’s leave or die for our party – I’m for leave.

Foreign national offenders in our country,who we have struggled to deport because of our membership of the European Convention on Human Rights – that’s the issue I was raising.

What is the biggest challenge we face as a party?

Our biggest strategic challenge is the fact that the average age above which you are more likely to vote Conservative than Labour is now over 60.

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Stock markets hit record highs after news of a fall in US inflation

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S&P 500 index of major US companies registers near 100% gain on year ago amid expectation of interest rate cuts

A fall in US inflation expected to pave the way for further cuts in interest rates pushed stock markets to record highs on Friday.

Ending a week of gains that began when the Chinese authorities approved a huge economic stimulus package, the S&P 500 index of major US companies soared above 5,750 to register a near 100% gain on a year ago.

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Harris says cost of living ‘still too high’ as she lays out economic agenda

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Democratic presidential nominee fleshed out economic vision for middle class and small businesses

Millions of Americans are struggling to make ends meet, Kamala Harris has said, as the Democratic presidential candidate fleshed out the economic agenda she hopes to adopt in the White House.

Conceding that the cost of living in America “is still just too high”, the vice-president argued this was true “long before” the Covid-19 pandemic ravaged the global economy, and she took office with the president, Joe Biden.

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Labour crackdown on non-doms may raise no money, officials fear

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Exclusive: Watchdog may conclude that emigration of wealthy individuals could actually cost Treasury revenue

Keir Starmer’s promised tax crackdown on non-doms could yield no extra funds for the Treasury, leaving a £1bn hole in the government’s planned spending for schools and hospitals.

Labour planned to use the money raised from wealthy individuals who are registered overseas for tax purposes to invest in ailing public services.

But the Guardian understands that Treasury officials fear estimates due to be released by the government’s spending watchdog may suggest the policy will fail to raise any money because of the impact of the super-rich non-domiciles leaving the UK.

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UK economy to grow faster than Japan, Italy and Germany this year, says OECD

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Forecast upgrades UK to joint second after US but it is still expected to have highest inflation among G7 countries

The global economy is “turning a corner”, according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, which has upgraded the UK’s growth forecast for this year to faster than that of Japan, Italy and Germany.

The OECD’s latest outlook ranked Britain joint second among the G7 developed countries in its latest outlook for the world economy. However, the UK is still expected to have the highest inflation in the group.

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‘Davos on the Mersey’: key conference takeaways as Labour tries to woo business

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As the budget looms, where the party stands on investment in the UK economy, workers’ rights and more

For a second year running, corporate Britain descended on Liverpool for Labour’s annual conference, in an event so packed with executives that some insiders joke the socialist gathering has developed into a full-blown “Davos on the Mersey”.

Like last year, the exhibition and conference fringe had sponsored events, lounge areas and advertising from exhibitors including Gatwick, National Grid, Ikea and Specsavers. This year, however, business leaders were looking for clues about how Labour will govern after July’s election landslide.

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EU plant exporters turning backs on UK over ‘painful’ border checks, says trade group

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Trading relationships at ‘breaking point’ because of delays and costs, garden centres and nurseries warn

Exporters of plants and flowers from mainland Europe are turning their backs on supplying Britain as “painful” new Brexit border checks are putting some trading relationships at “breaking point”, garden centres and nurseries have warned.

The Horticultural Trades Association (HTA), which represents garden retailers and growers, said long-held links between British nurseries and EU suppliers were now being put under strain because of the delays and costs associated with the new border processes.

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China unleashes boldest stimulus in years to boost ailing economy

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The People’s Bank of China announces a host of policy support measures but some experts fear they may not be enough

China’s central bank unveiled its strongest suite of economic stimulus measures since the start of the Covid pandemic, underlining the difficulty it faces in reviving an economy grappling with a prolonged property crisis and strong deflationary pressures.

Governor Pan Gongsheng said the People’s Bank of China will cut the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves – known as reserve requirement ratios (RRR) – by 50 basis points. The People’s Bank of China will also cut a key policy rate by 0.2 percentage points to 1.5%.

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Cutting winter fuel payments ‘right decision’, says Reeves, as No 10 says no change to council tax discount for single people – Labour conference live

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Chancellor says £22bn gap in current spending budget and state pension rise meant she had to make decision on means-testing fuel payments

In interview this morning Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, defended her own decision to accept clothing donations worth £7,500 when she was in opposition.

Speaking on the Today programme, she said:

I can understand why people find it a little bit odd that politicians get support for things like buying clothes.

Now, when I was an opposition MP, when I was shadow chancellor of the exchequer, a friend of mine who I’ve known for years [Juliet Rosenfeld] – she’s a good personal friend – wanted to support me as shadow chancellor and the way she wanted to support me was to finance my office to be able to buy clothes for the campaign trail and for big events and speeches that I made as shadow chancellor.

It’s never something that I planned to do as a government minister, but it did help me in opposition.

It’s rightly the case that we don’t ask taxpayers to fund the bulk of the campaigning work and the research work that politicians do, but that does require, then, donations – from small donations, from party members and supporters, from larger contributions, from people who have been very successful in life and want to give something back.

We appreciate that support. It’s part of the reason why we are in government today, because we were able to do that research work, and we were able to do that campaigning.

Unite and the Communication Workers Union (CWU) have put forward motions which were due to be debated on Monday afternoon, with strong support expected from other unions.

Sources said unions were told late on Sunday that the debate is being moved to Wednesday morning.

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Peter Jay, journalist and diplomat, dies aged 87

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Tributes paid to one of the UK’s foremost economics commentators who was also ambassador to Washington

Peter Jay, the former BBC economics journalist and diplomat, has died at the age of 87, his family has announced.

Colleagues in the political and media world paid tributes after he died “peacefully at home” on Sunday. Jay was one of the country’s foremost economics commentators of his time, spending time as the economics editor for the BBC and the Times.

Additional reporting by PA Media

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Health and productivity losses from obesity ‘far outstrip weight-loss jab costs’

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Exclusive: £100bn-a-year cost of obesity to UK makes clear economic case for use of drugs such as Ozempic, says report

Spiralling healthcare costs and productivity losses from the global obesity crisis far outstrip the cost of new weight-loss drugs, according to a report, which also calls on governments to prioritise prevention by promoting a healthy diet and exercise.

In the UK, Germany and the Netherlands, there is a clear economic case for these medications, the report says, as the annual cost of the diabetes drug Ozempic is lower than the cost of additional healthcare needed by people with obesity. The cost of the weight-loss injection Wegovy is higher, but still dwarfed by the overall economic cost to society of obesity, according to the research by ING Bank, shared with the Guardian.

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