Category Archives: US economy

Why Joe Biden is better than Donald Trump for the US economy | Nouriel Roubini

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It’s a myth that Republicans handle the economy better – US recessions almost always occur under the GOP

Joe Biden has consistently held a wide polling lead over US President Donald Trump ahead of November’s election. But, despite Trump’s botched response to the Covid-19 pandemic – a failure that has left the economy far weaker than it otherwise would have been – he has maintained a marginal edge on the question of which candidate would be better for the US economy. Thanks to Trump, a country with just 4% of the world’s population now accounts for more than 20% of total Covid-19 deaths – an utterly shameful outcome, given America’s advanced (albeit expensive) healthcare system.

The presumption that Republicans are better than Democrats at economic stewardship is a longstanding myth that must be debunked. In our 1997 book, Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy, the late (and great) Alberto Alesina and I showed that Democratic administrations tend to preside over faster growth, lower unemployment and stronger stock markets than Republican presidents do.

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Trump claims US is ’rounding the corner’ as coronavirus death toll nears 200,000 – live

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A panel of three federal judges blocked the Trump administration on Thursday from excluding undocumented immigrants from the census totals used to determine how many seats in Congress each state gets.

Trump acted unlawfully in July when he ordered the Commerce Department to produce data that would allow him to exclude undocumented immigrants from the count, the panel said. Federal law is clear that only a single data source - the census count of total population - can be used to apportion the 435 seats in the US House among states, the judges wrote. The decennial census does not ask about citizenship status and by requesting a second set of data outside of the decennial census, Trump ran afoul of the law.

Unprecedented wildfires and rushed evacuations in Oregon have wreaked havoc on the state’s incarcerated population, with thousands now packed into a single overcrowded prison that was already a major Covid-19 hotspot.

A destructive and rapidly spreading fire in Marion county prompted the state to evacuate three prisons on Tuesday, transferring 1,450 people to the Oregon state penitentiary (OSP) in Salem. Evacuees are sleeping on the floor and on emergency beds throughout OSP, including in indoor recreational areas, program rooms and other facilities not typically used for housing.

Related: Oregon fires: evacuated prisoners sleep on floor in packed Covid-19 hotspot

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The bleak Covid winter? America still not on course to beat back the virus

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As summer ends, and as deaths near 200,000 amid severe economic damage, experts say the next few months are vital

Even with three decades of experience in the travel industry, Jorge Pesquera has never seen a downturn in business like this one.

Related: Could western Pennsylvania win Trump a second term?

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FTSE 100 falls ahead of crucial Jerome Powell speech – business live

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Rolling live coverage of business, economics and financial markets as investors anticipate new approach to inflation

Something to sink your teeth into before lunch: more discounts on dining out.

Related: Eat out to help out scheme to be extended by some restaurants

Mark Haefele, chief investment officer, UBS Global Wealth Management, said:

While we expect the Fed to shy away from more radical easing measures, such as explicit controls on government bond yields, we believe Powell will likely outline other dovish measures. These could include a move toward average inflation targeting, giving the central bank more leeway to allow inflation to overshoot the 2% target while keeping rates pegged close to zero.

Maybe the age of the independent, activist central bank head is also coming to an end. Fiscal policy is more powerful and monetary policy needs to work in harmony with it. Monetary policy is being asked to do things (like tackle economic inequality) that it really isn’t suited to. But, here we are, waiting for Jay Powell to turn up at Grafton’s Saloon. He’s already done everything he can, he’s almost out of bullets and he may even have already won the fight, but we have placed our faith in him and desperately want fresh encouragement.

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Is this the end of the road for dollar dominance?

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In the short term, probably not, but with China weaponising the yuan stern challenges lie ahead

The recent sharp depreciation of the US dollar has led to concerns that it may lose its role as the main global reserve currency. After all, in addition to the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary easing – which threatens to debase the world’s key fiat currency even further – gold prices and inflation expectations have also been rising.

But, to paraphrase Mark Twain, reports of the dollar’s early demise are greatly exaggerated. The greenback’s recent weakness is driven by shorter-term cyclical factors. In the long run, the situation is more complicated: the dollar has both strengths and weaknesses that may or may not undermine its global position over time.

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Stock markets boom as hopes rise for US economic stimulus and Covid-19 vaccine

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S&P edges towards all-time record with oil prices and hospitality stocks rising as investor optimism rebounds

US stock markets moved closer to record highs on Tuesday after investors bet on a fresh round of government spending to lift the economy and counter the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The S&P 500, seen as the broadest measure of US investor sentiment, raced to a 10-point gain by mid afternoon to leave it just 16 points short of the all-time high reached in February.

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US economy suffers worst quarter since the second world war as GDP shrinks by 32.9%

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Drop in quarterly gross domestic product comes as 1.43m people file for unemployment benefits, a second week of increases, amid Covid-19 pandemic

The US economy shrank by an annual rate of 32.9% between April and June, its sharpest contraction since the second world war, government figures revealed on Thursday, as more signs emerged of the coronavirus pandemic’s heavy toll on the country’s economy.

The record-setting quarterly fall in economic growth compared to the same time last year came as another 1.43 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, a second week of rises after a four-month decline.

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Trump declares US economy is ‘roaring back’, despite record Covid-19 cases – video

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Donald Trump has declared the US economy is 'roaring back' after news of a fall in unemployment nationwide. The results come as states across the country have been gradually lifting Covid-19 restrictions. While 4.8m jobs were added in June, parts of the country have also experienced record numbers of new coronavirus cases

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Global stock market rally is a gamble, IMF warns investors

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Report identifies gap between market optimism and depressed state of economies

The global stock market rally represents a gamble by investors that central banks will ignore the risks of a buildup in debt and continue to provide support at the current record levels, the International Monetary Fund has warned.

In an update to its half-yearly global financial stability report, the IMF said central banks had been pivotal in the recovery of share prices from their Covid-19 trough but there was now a gap between the optimism of financial markets and the depressed state of economies.

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Revealed: millions of Americans can’t afford water as bills rise 80% in a decade

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Exclusive: analysis of US cities shows emergency on affordability of running water amid Covid-19 pandemic

Millions of ordinary Americans are facing rising and unaffordable bills for running water, and risk being disconnected or losing their homes if they cannot pay, a landmark Guardian investigation has found.

Exclusive analysis of 12 US cities shows the combined price of water and sewage increased by an average of 80% between 2010 and 2018, with more than two-fifths of residents in some cities living in neighbourhoods with unaffordable bills.

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Stock markets tumble as another 1.5m Americans file for unemployment

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Dow Jones loses more than 1,800 points while S&P down 5% after US coronavirus infections hit 2m

Stock markets tumbled in the US and Europe on Thursday amid growing fears over the long-term economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

The sell off started after the US labor department announced another 1.5 million people had filed for unemployment benefits and the number of coronavirus infections passed 2m even as states across the US continued to relax their quarantine measures.

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US has officially entered first recession since 2009

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National Bureau of Economic Research says economic growth in the US peaked in February and has since entered its first downturn since 2007 to 2009

The United States is officially in a recession, ending the longest economic expansion in US history, the committee that calls downturns announced on Monday.

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) said that economic growth in the US peaked in February and has since entered its first downturn since 2007 to 2009.

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UK car sales slump as 2,000 workers lose their jobs in Covid-19 crisis – business live

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Live coverage as Aston Martin and car dealer Lookers announce costs savings plans

Young’s pub chain intends to open all of its 276 sites by the 3 August, and is hopeful the business can “bounce back” once its pubs are allowed to reopen, but expects trading to be “materially below average” for the rest of the year.

Another interesting detail from the SMMT data: Tesla’s Model 3 was the most popular car during May.

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CDC reports more than 1.5 million cases – as it happened

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Here’s a look at today’s main stories:

After Donald Trump said on Friday that he believes places of worship should be deemed as essential services, Minnesota’s Democratic governor, Tim Walz, issued an executive order addressing the issue. Places of worship in the state will now be able to open at 25% of capacity. Individuals or households in the buildings must maintain six feet distance.

Walz said he still encouraged citizens to worship remotely. “I am under no illusion whatsoever: Every move we make that loosens up increases the risk,” Walz said.

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Fed warns more cash is needed as US figures reveal widening inequality

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  • Jerome Powell: pace of downturn ‘without modern precedent’
  • Lowest-paid Americans hit hardest by coronavirus pandemic

More evidence of how the coronavirus pandemic is widening income inequality has emerged after the Federal Reserve announced 40% of households earning less than $40,000 included someone who has lost a job since February.

Related: Coronavirus US live: gap grows between White House and experts over safety of reopening

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World’s stock markets soar on coronavirus treatment hopes

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Investors shrug off US growth gloom after promising data from remdesivir drug trial

Shares have soared on the world’s stock markets after investors shrugged off a deep slump in the US economy and pinned their hopes on a possible breakthrough in treatment for Covid-19.

Despite news that the longest expansion in US history came to an abrupt end in the first three months of 2020, financial markets were buoyed by an update from the American biopharma company Gilead Sciences on its experimental drug remdesivir.

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Coronavirus: US reaches one million confirmed cases – live updates

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Mike Pence’s office has dubiously argued the vice president does not need to wear a mask because he is regularly tested for coronavirus.

The vice president faced questions about his lack of mask usage earlier this month after a photo circulated of a mask-less Pence greeting Colorado governor Jared Polis, who was wearing a mask in the picture.

Vice President Mike Pence was criticized for ignoring mask guidelines when visiting the Mayo Clinic facilities in Minnesota today.

Footage of Pence’s visit showed the vice president not covering his face as he met with the clinic’s employees and at least one patient.

PENCE flouts Mayo Clinic policy that everyone on campus wear a mask, even as he meets with staff and a patient. pic.twitter.com/kfo64KQDhU

Mayo Clinic had informed @VP of the masking policy prior to his arrival today.

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US House passes $484bn coronavirus relief bill to fund small businesses and hospitals

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Measure heads to Donald Trump’s desk after passing House by vote of 388-5, as lawmakers meet for first time in weeks

The US House of Representatives overwhelmingly approved a $484bn coronavirus relief bill on Thursday, funding small businesses and hospitals and pushing the total spending response to the crisis to an unprecedented near $3tn.

The measure passed the Democratic-led House by a vote of 388-5, with one member voting present. House members were meeting for the first time in weeks because of the coronavirus pandemic.

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Top economist: US coronavirus response is like ‘third world’ country

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Joseph Stiglitz attacks Donald Trump, saying US on course for second Great Depression

Donald Trump’s botched handling of the Covid-19 crisis has left the US looking like a “third world” country and on course for a second Great Depression, one of the world’s leading economists has warned.

In a withering attack on the president, Joseph Stiglitz said millions of people were turning to food banks, turning up for work due to a lack of sick pay and dying because of health inequalities.

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Trump spoiling for a fight over reopening economy, says Cuomo – video

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The New York governor has brushed off Donald Trump's claim that the president has the ultimate say on when and how to reopen the economy. Andrew Cuomo says Trump's assertion is inaccurate and unconstitutional, adding: 'There are many things you can debate in the constitution because they are ambiguous. This is not one of those things that is ambiguous.'

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