RMT chief threatens rail strikes could continue beyond May – business live

Mick Lynch says strikes could carry on into spring unless a reasonable offer is made to the RMT union; transport secretary denies blocking a deal

Huw Howells, head of manufacturing and industrials at Lloyds Bank corporate & institutional banking, said:

Manufacturers start 2023 on somewhat uncertain ground as December shows a fifth month of contraction.

There are silver linings in the supply chain, but unknowns remain for 2023, making forecasting difficult as manufacturers balance demand and supply.

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King Charles III bank note designs revealed by Bank of England

Monarch’s portrait on £5, £10, £20 and £50 likely to enter circulation in 2024

Designs for bank notes featuring an image of King Charles III have been revealed by the Bank of England, with plans to enter circulation by mid-2024.

Announcing the design for the first time in the run-up to the coronation in May, the UK central bank said the king’s portrait would appear on existing designs of all four of its polymer bank notes currently in circulation – £5, £10, £20 and £50.

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‘UK travel is on sale’: plunging pound attracts US visitors

Operators catering for inbound tourists enjoy best month for bookings in three years

The plunging pound may cause British holidaymakers to choke at the prices if and when they next choose to go abroad. But one slice of the travel industry is seeing a silver lining in the storm clouds.

Tour operators catering for visitors are quietly calling it their best month for bookings since October 2019 as US tourists take advantage of sterling’s tumble.

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Bank of England in £65bn scramble to avert financial crisis

Bank of England left with no action but to intervene after Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget

The Bank of England has been forced into emergency action to halt a run on Britain’s pension funds after the impact of Kwasi Kwarteng’s ill-received mini budget prompted fears of a 2008-style financial crisis.

Threadneedle Street said the fallout from a dramatic rise in government borrowing costs since the chancellor’s statement had left it with no choice but to intervene to protect the UK’s financial system.

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Bumper City bonuses expected from takeover frenzy after pound hits record low

UK firms now temptingly cheaper, with a ‘wave of bids’ from overseas buyers meaning payouts for bankers

Bankers could rake in bumper bonuses from a “wave of bids” by overseas buyers for UK businesses made temptingly cheaper as a result of the plunge in the pound against the dollar. A fresh frenzy of merger and acquisition activity would mean a ramp-up in payouts for City dealmakers.

Sterling fell by nearly 5% at one point on Monday to $1.0327, its lowest since Britain went decimal in 1971. The currency has fallen by more than a fifth against the dollar this year.

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Sterling slides back towards record low despite Bank of England and Treasury attempts to reassure markets – business live

Bank of England issues statement saying it ‘will not hesitate’ to change interest rate but has not implemented an emergency rise

We’ve now reached the point where the Bank of England needs to step in in order to regain the initiative, warns Paul Dales of Capital Economics.

Dales says governor Andrew Bailey has two options.

That could involve something like a 100bps or 150bps hike in interest rates (to 3.25%/3.75%), perhaps as soon as this morning.

By bringing forward a lot of the policy tightening that might needed to have happened anyway, the Bank would demonstrate in no uncertain terms that whatever the government does it will ensure that inflation returns to 2%. This would go a long way to easing the crisis.

“The bank, and indeed the Government, have indicated that they are going to take their next decision in November and publish forecasts and, so on that point, the worry is that they may have to take action a bit sooner than that.”

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Pound falls as weak retail sales raise fears UK economy is in recession

On Black Wednesday anniversary, sterling hits 37-year low against dollar and 17-month low against euro

Fears that the British economy is already in recession after a slump in retail sales last month triggered heavy selling of the pound on international money markets taking it to a 37-year low against the dollar.

With average UK wages continuing to fall behind rising prices and the Bank of England expected to push up interest rates next week, sterling fell by more than 1% against the US currency to $1.135, its lowest since 1985.

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People race to exchange paper banknotes before deadline

Queues form at Bank of England to swap old £20s and £50s before they stop being legal tender

Consumers are racing to exchange their old paper banknotes for new plastic versions, just over a fortnight before they cease to be legal tender at the end of September.

The Bank of England has warned people to expect long queues at its headquarters at Threadneedle Street in the City of London as they try to swap paper £20 and £50 notes.

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UK energy bills ‘to top £4,200’ amid warning of ‘serious hardship on a massive scale’ – business live

Joseph Rowntree Foundation, consumer champion Martin Lewis and CBI chief urge PM to act urgently to help people with soaring energy bills

More on the new forecast for UK energy bills from Cornwall Insight, which spells more misery for millions of families across the UK.

The consultancy’s principal consultant, Dr Craig Lowrey, said:

It is essential that the government use our predictions to spur on a review of the support package being offered to consumers.

If the £400 was not enough to make a dent in the impact of our previous forecast, it most certainly is not enough now.

The government must make introducing more support over the first two quarters of 2023 a number one priority. In the longer term, a social tariff or other support mechanism to target support at the most vulnerable in society are options that we at Cornwall Insight have proposed previously. Right now, the current price cap is not working for consumers, suppliers, or the economy.

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Why is the euro doing so badly against the dollar?

Analysis: Investors often turn to US currency in times of uncertainty and there are plenty of reasons for them to be jittery

It is two decades since the euro was last trading below $1.00 (£0.84) against the US dollar. Now the single currency is once again teetering on the brink of parity.

There are a host of reasons why, although the prompt for the most recent slide in the currency has been the fear Europe faces an energy crunch this winter.

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Euro a whisker from dollar parity; Heathrow caps passenger numbers amid travel disruption – as it happened

Euro slides to a 20-year low of $1.0001 on anxiety that Europe will fall into recession, as Heathrow introduces limit on summer holiday passengers

The euro is teetering ever closer to parity with the dollar.

It’s now trading at just $1.0005, on concerns that the shutdown of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline for maintenance could become permanent.

“While we believe that a cessation of Russian gas supply to Europe is a real possibility, one that would cause a Eurozone-wide recession with three consecutive quarters of economic contraction, there are also good reasons to assume that gas supplies will resume after the maintenance.”

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European stock markets tumble on rising fears of recession

Euro slumps to 20-year low against US dollar as jump in natural gas prices intensifies economic strain

Rising worries about a European recession hit stock markets on Tuesday as the euro slumped to a two-decade low and the pound fell to its lowest since the start of the pandemic.

Shares tumbled in London and across Europe as a jump in natural gas prices intensified the strain on the European economy.

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Pound falls to lowest level since pandemic crash

Unemployment rise and prospect of new Scottish independence referendum fuel recession fears

The pound has fallen to its lowest level against the dollar since the onset of the Covid pandemic amid growing concern over the strength of the British economy.

Sterling dropped by more than a cent against the dollar to trade below $1.20 on foreign exchange markets for the first time since March 2020, as City traders reacted to mixed figures from the jobs market and the prospect of a fresh referendum on Scottish independence.

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US inflation dips to 8.3% but stays close to 40-year high –as it happened

Rolling coverage of business, the world economy and the financial markets

National Grid has agreed to pay back £200m of revenues gleaned from subsea electricity cables early in an effort to cut painful household bills, reports Alex Lawson.

Under an agreement with watchdog Ofgem, the energy network operator must pay back revenues made from European ‘interconnector’ cables over a five-year period above a cap.

Since the price of materials is rising, we need to work to reduce the amount of materials we use as much as possible and to replace them with less expensive materials.

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European gas firms seek ways to pay after Putin’s roubles demand

Energy suppliers in Germany and Austria confirm they are looking at sanctions-compliant methods

Energy companies in Europe are considering opening Russian accounts to pay for gas from Gazprom after Vladimir Putin’s regime cut off supplies to Poland and Bulgaria and insisted other countries must pay in roubles.

Big gas distributors in Germany and Austria confirmed they were seeking ways to continue to make payments after Putin signed a decree at the end of March calling for a “special procedure for foreign buyers’ fulfilment of obligations to Russian suppliers of natural gas”.

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Tesla shares fall 12% after Musk’s Twitter deal; Moscow threatens to halt gas flows to Poland, Bulgaria – live

Investors worry Elon Musk may have to sell Tesla shares to fund Twitter deal, as global stocks slide and US dollar rises to pandemic high

Lloyds Banking Group has raised concerns over the “uncertain” outlook for the UK economy amid soaring inflation, warning that the cost of living crisis could result in higher defaults on its loans, reports our banking correspondent Kalyeena Makortoff.

It came as the bank reported a 14% drop in first quarter pre-tax profit to £1.6bn from £1.9bn a year earlier, although that was better than the £1.4bn that analysts had expected.

The Nasdaq led the equity market wipe-out overnight, with its near 4% retreat led by Tesla, which fell by 12.2%. You could look at it two ways.

Either Elon Musk sold his latest stock awards to generate the $21bn in cash for his part of the Twitter buyout, or the street is starting to wonder how he could possibly effectively run Tesla, Starlink, Space-X and Twitter simultaneously. I do as well.

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Retail sales fall as consumers cut back on fuel and food spending amid UK cost of living crisis – business live

Rolling coverage of business, the world economy and the financial markets

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the world economy and the financial markets.

In the UK, retail sales fell 1.4% in March, following a 0.5% drop in February, as people cut back on fuel and food spending amid soaring prices.

Good weather usually means sunnier times for retail, and firms will hope that the summer months can play a small part in stimulating waning confidence among a general public coping with the harsh realities of rising prices everywhere they turn. In reality, each day brings fresh warnings from business leaders that prices will likely continue to climb, driving consumer confidence in the wrong direction for retailers.

This seems a rather strange reaction given that nothing he said yesterday was in any way surprising. A 50 basis point rate hike is already priced in, as well as the prospect that we could well see another one soon afterwards.

We also heard from European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde yesterday as she capped off a couple of days of some rather hawkish comments from the likes of Belgium’s Pierre Wunsch, and ECB vice president Luis De Guindos who followed on from Latvia’s Martin Kazaks by arguing that a July rate rise was on the table. She didn’t come across as anywhere near as hawkish as her colleagues, pointing to the June meeting as the moment to decide on next steps, and lightly pushing back on the idea of a fixed point.

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World Bank chief says food crisis will lead to global human catastrophe – business live

Boris Johnson is in India at the start of a two-day visit, where he said he hopes to clinch a free trade deal for Britain by the end of the year.

Inflation in the eurozone has been revised slightly lower but remains at a record high as energy costs surge.

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Russia ‘preparing legal action’ to unfreeze $600bn foreign currency reserves

Elvira Nabiullina says lawsuits aim to release gold and foreign currency frozen amid Ukraine invasion sanctions

Russia is preparing to take legal action to challenge the freeze on its $600bn (£462bn) foreign currency war chest put in place by western governments after the invasion of Ukraine, the head of the country’s central bank has said.

Elvira Nabiullina said plans were being made to launch lawsuits after governments including the US, UK and EU froze the Russian central bank’s foreign currency reserves held within their jurisdictions.

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