‘Scunnered with the Tories, frustrated by the SNP’: Labour in bid to be Scotland’s biggest party

Candidates in key central belt hope to scoop up voters who have become disillusioned with their election rivals

Not for the first time, Blair McDougall, Labour’s candidate in East Renfrewshire on the outskirts of Glasgow, is telling a wavering voter that the election here is “so, so close”.

If predictions of a knife-edge outcome weren’t enough to motivate him, many people – including some in Barrhead, which he is visiting today – have just received their postal ballots. Their votes will be cast in the next few days.

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Starmer says he would not let SNP hold new independence referendum or lift veto on gender recognition bill – as it happened

Labour leader says he would refuse to participate in negotiations for another independence referendum if he is elected PM

Speaking of Nigel Farage: the Reform UK leader has praised the misogynist influencer Andrew Tate for being an “important voice” for the emasculated and giving boys “perhaps a bit of confidence at school” in online interviews that appear to be aimed at young men over the past year.

The Guardian’s Rowena Mason and Ben Quinn report:

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Rishi Sunak says he is ‘incredibly angry’ about betting allegations in BBC Question Time election special – as it happened

Prime minister says suspects must face ‘full force of law’ if found guilty; Labour, SNP and Lib Dem leaders speak during programme

The next question comes from Linda, who says Davey’s antics during the election campaigns (fun photo opportunities, often involving him getting wet) haven’t looked prime-ministerial.

Davey says he has been trying to grab attention.

It was very difficult governing with the Conservatives. We couldn’t get everything we wanted …

You either had to stay in and fight inside the government or leave. I think the easy choice for me would be to leave, vote against it, and tour the media studios and complain. The hard choice was to stay in, roll up my sleeves and really fight.

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Gambling regulator looking into second Tory candidate over bet on general election timing – live

BBC names candidate as Laura Saunders and says she is married to party’s director of campaigns

In case you missed this late yesterday: Conservatives are projected to slump to their “lowest seat tally in the party’s almost 200-year history” at the General Election, according to the latest YouGov poll.

YouGov said its latest study projects Labour to secure 425 seats, the Tories 108, the Liberal Democrats 67, SNP 20, Reform UK five, Plaid Cymru four and the Green Party two. It noted such a scenario would hand Keir Starmer a 200-seat majority while it added Reform UK leader Nigel Farage is “likely” to win in Clacton.

The findings are similar to those from the Guardian’s Ipsos MRP poll on Tuesday, which showed the Conservatives winning just 115 seats, with Labour on 453.

YouGov used a technique known as multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) to model the outcome of the election in every constituency across Britain, PA reports.

It said the estimated seat projections were based on modelled responses from 36,161 adults in England and Wales, and 3,818 in Scotland, between June 11 and 18. Several high-profile Conservatives, including Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, would lose out if the projection played out at the ballot box on 4 July.

YouGov wrote:

Our new MRP has the Conservatives on their lowest seat tally in the party’s almost 200-year history.

Our latest model has 109 seats as toss ups – meaning that the winning party’s lead is less than five points. Sixty five marginal seats are contests between the Conservatives and Labour.”

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Tory government ‘worst in postwar era’, claims expert study – as it happened

Sir Anthony Seldon leads analysis that concludes that equality, growth and the UK’s standing in the world have all declined since 2010

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And here are some of the best pictures from yesterday’s campaigning. As more voting people than ever appear poised to turn away from the Tories, Sunak appeared in several photographs with sheep and lobsters as he visited North Devon, held by the Tories since 2015. The Guardian’s Archie bland named the sheep the “Dubious photo opportunity of the day”, after the sheep ran away:

Starmer, meanwhile, appeared on LBC where he clarified that Premier League Football Clubs would not be subject to a 10% transfer tax to fund clubs lower down the pyramid. “Let me just kill it dead, we’re not looking at that,” Starmer said. He also visited a tennis club and a pub in Reading West and mid Berkshire.

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UK elections: what is tactical voting and how does it work?

The campaign group Best for Britain has launched its guide on how to vote to have the best chance of ousting the Tories. We look at what tactical voting involves and what the group is recommending

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UK politics: Anas Sarwar says election is about ‘getting rid of Tories’, not Scottish independence – as it happened

Leaders of Scotland’s five main political parties clash during live TV debate

Momentum, the leftwing Labour group set up when Jeremy Corbyn was leader, is not happy about Keir Starmer’s jibe about Corbyn’s manifesto.

Labour’s 2019 manifesto was fully costed.

Keir should know, he stood on it as a member of the shadow cabinet.

How about stopping attacking your own side during an election @Keir_Starmer?

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Harder to own your first home under the Tories, Rishi Sunak admits – UK politics as it happened

PM acknowledges in BBC Panorama interview to air tonight that it is a challenge for people to buy their first home

Davey sums up the Lib Dems’ plans on health and social care

And he says he wants to mention one other policy he is particularly proud of – the proposal to give proper bereavement support to parents whose partners have died.

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Douglas Ross to resign as Scottish Tory leader after election

Surprise announcement comes amid internal party pressure and fresh allegations over expenses claims

Douglas Ross has announced he will stand down as leader of the Scottish Conservatives on 4 July amid growing internal pressure over his multiple roles in the party and fresh allegations about improper expenses claims.

In the surprise statement on Monday morning, Ross also said he would quit as an MSP at Holyrood should he win the Aberdeenshire North and Moray East constituency at the Westminster election.

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SNP says Scottish Labour is rewriting party’s spending plans in TV debate

John Swinney claims Anas Sarwar not keeping to Rachel Reeves’s constraints on NHS, schools and renewables funding as leaders clash

The SNP has accused Scottish Labour of “completely rewriting” Rachel Reeves’s spending plans, as the party leaders took part in the first televised debate of the election campaign.

The clash between the the SNP, Scottish Labour, Scottish Conservatives and Scottish Liberal Democrats was screened by STV, without a studio audience, and involved intensive cross-examination of each leader by his political rivals.

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John Swinney says SNP facing its biggest challenge for years

Leader launches party’s election campaign as polling suggests it will pay high price for recent woes

John Swinney has described July’s general election as “the biggest challenge the SNP has had for years” as he used his party’s official campaign launch to repeatedly attack Labour, which is threatening the nationalists in dozens of seats across Scotland.

Swinney, who told the rally of more than 200 activists and former MPs in Glasgow that it was a “surprise” to be leading the SNP into an election campaign, added that “voters are right to remind us never to take anything for granted”.

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Labour says early general election leaves many government commitments ‘in the bin’ – as it happened

Bills, including smoking ban for people born after 2009, unlikely to become law before 4 July vote

Rishi Sunak is now speaking at an event in Ilkeston in Derbyshire. It is in the Erewash constituency, where the Tory MP Maggie Throup had a majority of 10,606 at the last election.

He repeats the claim that a Labour government would cost every family £2,000.

Labour’s spending promises cost £16 billion per year in 2028-29, or £58.9 billion over the next four years.

But their revenue raisers would only collect £6.2 billion per year in 2028-29, or £20.4 billion over the next four years.

I don’t really think the arrangements in Scotland for the school holidays have really been anywhere near the calculations made by the prime minister …

I think it would be respectful if that was the case but it’s pretty typical of the lack of respect shown to Scotland that we’re an afterthought from the Westminster establishment and particularly the Conservative establishment.

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UK politics: I never called for rainbow lanyard ban, claims Esther McVey – as it happened

‘Common sense minister’ denies plan to Channel 4 News despite saying earlier this week that lanyards should be a ‘standard design’

Labour says the Ministry of Justice’s decision to delay court hearings because of prison overcrowing (see 10.39am) shows that people are “less safe” under the Tories. That’s a very convenient retort to Rishi Sunak, because only two days ago he gave a major speech arguing that security was a key reason why his party deserved to win the election.

In a statement, Shabana Mahmood, the shadow justice secretary, said:

The Tories continue to make major and unprecedented changes to the justice system without so much as a word to the public. It’s completely unacceptable and the public will be alarmed at this latest panic measures.

The government is stalling justice and leaving victims in limbo because of the mess they have created. This comes days after they hid from the public that they’re now letting criminals out of jail earlier than ever before.

The government is completely failing [on knife crime]. We’ve had an 80% increase since 2015 and rises all around the country. That’s the first point.

On stop and search, that is intelligence lead and evidence-based and is a really important tool. We’ve had, for example, the Inspectorate of Constabulary, an independent organisation, looking at this saying that what’s essential is that it is done in that targeted way.

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Labour defends welcoming rightwing Tory MP Natalie Elphicke into party – UK politics live

Natalie Elphicke said she was defecting to Labour due to ‘broken promises of Rishi Sunak’s tired and chaotic government’

PMQs starts in just over 20 minutes, and today there will be particular interest in the mood on the Conservative benches. Rishi Sunak has actively embraced the theory that the local election results show Labour is not on course to win an overall majority, but this is based on a projection that has been widely dismissed as unrealistic.

Here is the list of MPs down to ask a question.

It’s an issue of humanity and I think you’ve got to show equivalence. I condemn unequivocally the actions of Hamas on Oct 7; those 134 hostages must be released. At the same time I condemn unequivocally the actions of the IDF and Netanyahu; 34,000 people have perished including 14,000 children.

It’s utterly wrong and an insult to those victims to equate the brutality of Hamas to the legitimate military measures that Israel is taking in defence of its people and nation.

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John Swinney set to be confirmed as new SNP leader and Scotland’s first minister – UK politics live

Swinney may be only candidate after withdrawal of Graeme McCormick

Labour has marked the anniversary of the Conservatives re-entering government at the 2010 election by launching a what the opposition have called “Conflix” website [geddit?] that mockingly tells the story of “14 years of Tory chaos”

The party’s chair, Anneliese Dodds, was challenged about the site on Sky News this morning and whether the party was relying on “stunts” rather than policy proposals. She insisted that the “detail of policy” was there, in the form of initiatives like GB Energy.

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SNP activist ‘not leaned on’ to pull out of challenging Swinney for leadership

Depute leader insists Graeme McCormick’s last-minute withdrawal proof party is united

The Scottish National party’s depute leader has denied that a party activist was “leaned on” to pull out of the leadership race against John Swinney.

The party’s depute leader, Keith Brown, said Graeme McCormick’s last-minute decision on Sunday night not to stand against Swinney was proof the party was united and focused on delivering independence.

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SNP activist aims to challenge John Swinney for party leadership

Graeme McCormick claims he will gather requisite number of signatures to force contest instead of unopposed coronation

John Swinney could face a leadership contest before he becomes Scottish National party leader after an activist said he expected to win enough nominations to stand.

Graeme McCormick, a well-known party activist who stood to become SNP president in 2023, claimed he would gather the 100 signatures needed from 20 different party branches to mount a challenge for the leadership.

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Kate Forbes rules herself out of SNP leadership race to back John Swinney

Swinney tells campaign launch event he can bind party together, restore trust and achieve Scottish independence

Kate Forbes has ruled herself out as a candidate in the Scottish National party leadership contest, clearing the way for John Swinney to become the next first minister.

Forbes, a former finance secretary who came to close to winning last year’s contest, confirmed growing suspicions she had reached an agreement with Swinney to back his bid.

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Swinney expected to become Scotland’s first minister next week after Kate Forbes rules herself out – UK politics live

Former finance secretary who was narrowly beaten by Humza Yousaf in last year’s SNP leadership contest, has announced that she will not standing this time

Swinney has confirmed he is standing for SNP leader.

John Swinney is about to speak at his press conference in Edinburgh.

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SNP defeats Labour confidence motion and sets out plan for choosing new leader

Spokesperson confirms ‘informal meeting’ has taken place between leadership frontrunners John Swinney and Kate Forbes

The SNP government has headed off Labour’s attempt to force an early Holyrood election, as the frontrunners to succeed Humza Yousaf met for informal talks in an attempt to avoid another divisive leadership contest.

Anas Sarwar’s motion of no confidence in Yousaf’s administration – which would have forced all government ministers to resign – was defeated by 70 votes to 58 on Wednesday afternoon after the Greens voted with the SNP.

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