Category Archives: Tax and spending

Labour needs £25bn a year in tax rises to rebuild public services, warns IFS

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Thinktank says tax increases in budget will be necessary even if Rachel Reeves changes fiscal rules

Keir Starmer’s promise to end austerity and rebuild public services will require tax increases of £25bn a year in the coming budget even if debt rules are changed to provide scope for extra investment spending, a leading thinktank has said.

In its preview of the first Labour budget in 14 years, the Institute for Fiscal Studies said Rachel Reeves would need to raise taxes to fresh record levels to meet the government’s policy goals. The chancellor was also warned of the risk of a Liz Truss-style meltdown if the City responded badly to substantially higher borrowing.

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Wednesday briefing: Inside Labour’s plan to move the fiscal goalposts – and tackle debt

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In today’s newsletter: Rachel Reeves calculates that changing debt rules could help boost the UK economy, but what does it really mean?

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Good morning.

There are just three weeks to go until the biggest fiscal and political event for any government: the budget.

Middle East | Israel has said it is expanding its ground operation in Lebanon with the deployment of a fourth division after another night of intense airstrikes. The reservist 146th division was sent to southern Lebanon overnight, meaning the number of troops on the ground is now likely to number 15,000. The Lebanese health ministry said late on Tuesday 36 people have been killed and 150 have been injured in Israeli attacks over the past 24 hours.

Environment | Florida’s western coast was making emergency preparations on Tuesday for the impact of Hurricane Milton, with thousands of evacuees clogging highways, contending with fuel shortages, and the mayor of Tampa warning residents bluntly “you are going to die” if they stayed behind.

Conservatives | James Cleverly has topped the latest MPs’ vote in the Conservative leadership contest, making him the new favourite, as Tom Tugendhat became the latest candidate to be eliminated.

Poverty | More than 9 million people in the UK experience levels of poverty and hunger so extreme they are vulnerable to reliance on charity food handouts, according to research by the charity Trussell.

Society | Deaths have outstripped births in the UK for the first time in almost half a century, excluding the start of the pandemic, official figures showed.

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Doubts grow over Labour’s VAT plan for private schools

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The Treasury refuses to confirm 1 January start date as unions, tax experts and school leaders say it is unworkable

Government plans to impose VAT on private schools from 1 January next year may have to be delayed because of warnings from unions, tax experts and school leaders that meeting the deadline will cause administrative chaos and teacher job losses, and put pressure on the state sector.

The Treasury on Saturday night refused to confirm that the plan to impose 20% VAT on private school fees would go ahead from 1 January, as confirmed by the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, in July, instead saying it would be introduced “as soon as possible”.

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Labour crackdown on non-doms may raise no money, officials fear

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Exclusive: Watchdog may conclude that emigration of wealthy individuals could actually cost Treasury revenue

Keir Starmer’s promised tax crackdown on non-doms could yield no extra funds for the Treasury, leaving a £1bn hole in the government’s planned spending for schools and hospitals.

Labour planned to use the money raised from wealthy individuals who are registered overseas for tax purposes to invest in ailing public services.

But the Guardian understands that Treasury officials fear estimates due to be released by the government’s spending watchdog may suggest the policy will fail to raise any money because of the impact of the super-rich non-domiciles leaving the UK.

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Superyacht and private jet tax could raise £2bn a year, say campaigners

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Oxfam says ‘commonsense solution’ would reduce emissions and raise urgently needed climate finance

Fair taxes on superyachts and private jets in the UK could have brought in £2bn last year to provide vital funds for communities suffering the worst effects of climate breakdown, campaigners say.

Private jet use in the UK is soaring. It was home to the second highest number of private flights in Europe last year, behind only France, according to figures from the European Business Aviation Association.

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We did not do impact assessment of winter fuel payment cut, No 10 admits

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Spokesperson for Keir Starmer says focus was instead on encouraging pensioners to seek additional support

Ministers did not carry out a specific impact assessment on the withdrawal of the winter fuel payment from the bulk of pensioners, such as the potential effect on illness and death rates among older people, Downing Street has said.

After days of No 10 refusing to comment, Keir Starmer’s deputy spokesperson said the only assessment made before the policy announcement was a standard legal one of potential equalities impacts.

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UK debt must be steered off unsustainable course, warns Lords committee

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Peers said they were raising a ‘big red flag’ and tough choices will be needed

The pressing risk of the national debt becoming unsustainable will force Britain into the unenviable choice of paying higher taxes or the state doing less, a House of Lords committee has warned.

A report by peers said tough decisions and a new set of rules for the public finances were needed in order to put debt – currently just under 100% of annual national income – on a decisive downward path.

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Chancellor faces down would-be rebels ahead of winter fuel payment vote

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Rachel Reeves tells Labour MPs that axing allowance for all but poorest pensioners will help plug £22bn hole in finances

The chancellor has faced down would-be rebels in a private meeting of Labour MPs ahead of the crunch vote on the government’s controversial plan to scrap the winter fuel allowance.

Rachel Reeves told a gathering of the parliamentary Labour party that the move was necessary, despite fears about the impact on millions of less-well-off pensioners, as it would help to plug a £22bn gap in the public finances.

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Civil service chief backs UK government claim of £22bn shortfall

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Simon Case criticises Tory government’s failure to hold regular spending reviews in letter to Jeremy Hunt – who had challenged figure

Simon Case, the head of the civil service, has backed the government’s figures showing that a £22bn shortfall was left by the previous Conservative administration.

The cabinet secretary said the Tories’ failure to hold regular spending reviews had contributed to the financial uncertainty.

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Labour MP pushes for watchdog to assess PFI costs under budgets bill

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Stella Creasy says she wants to put school and hospital debts and impact of trade deals ‘on nation’s books’

A senior Labour backbencher is seeking to have liabilities from schools and hospitals built under private finance initiative (PFI) deals scrutinised under a new budget responsibility bill.

Stella Creasy, who has tabled two amendments to the bill, said this would help highlight the scale of debt incurred. She also wants trade deals such as the post-Brexit arrangement with the EU to fall under its remit, arguing these can have an even greater fiscal impact.

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Rachel Reeves planning to raise taxes and cut spending in October budget

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Chancellor insists she still has large black hole to fill despite stronger-than-expected growth in first half of 2024

Rachel Reeves is planning to raise taxes, cut spending and get tough on benefits in October’s budget amid Treasury alarm that the pickup in the economy has failed to improve the poor state of the public finances.

With the latest official set of borrowing figures out on Wednesday, the chancellor is insisting she will still have a substantial black hole to fill despite stronger than expected growth in the first half of 2024.

Raising more money from inheritance tax and capital gains tax.

Sticking to plans for a 1% increase in public spending even though it would involve cuts for some Whitehall departments.

Rejecting pressure to scrap the two-child benefit cap.

Changing the way debt is measured to exclude the Bank of England.

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Greens say Labour should focus more on building council homes and that new housing plan is flawed – UK politics live

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Rayner says housing target system will raise number of homes planned to 370,000 and confirmed targets will be mandatory

Balls, who, of course, is a former Labour cabinet minister, and a former shadow chancellor, questions whether Reeves is right to suggest that Jeremy Hunt is wholly to blame for the black hole. He says that other cabinet ministers and departments drew up the spending plans that she says were unfunded.

Reeves repeats the point she has been making all morning about how the public were misled. (See 8.06am.)

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Winter fuel payments to be restricted as Reeves says there is £22bn spending shortfall – UK politics live

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Chancellor suggests budget, on 30 October, will involve tax rises and cuts to spending and benefits

Downing Street has refused to comment on a report saying junior doctors are being offered a pay rise worth about 20% over two years.

In a story for the Times, Steven Swinford reports:

The British Medical Association’s (BMA) junior doctors committee has recommended an offer that includes a backdated pay rise of 4.05 per cent for 2023-24, on top of an existing increase of between 8.8 per cent and 10.3 per cent.

Junior doctors will be given a further pay rise of 6 per cent for 2024-25, which will be topped up by a consolidated £1,000 payment. This is equivalent to a pay rise of between 7 per cent and 9 per cent.

As we’ve said before, we’re committed to working to find a solution, resolving this dispute, but I can’t get into detailed running commentary on negotiations.

We’ve been honest with the public and the sector about the economic circumstances we face. But the government is determined to do the hard work necessary to finally bring these strikes to an end.

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Rachel Reeves paves way for cuts and tax rises to fill shortfall left by Tories

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Chancellor will announce pause in work on a number of infrastructure projects, saying Conservatives ‘covered up’ true state of finances

Rachel Reeves will lay the ground for cuts to public spending, tax rises and delays to some major infrastructure projects on Monday as she sets out the toxic inheritance the Labour government inherited from the Tories.

She is expected to pause work on a string of infrastructure projects, including Boris Johnson’s flagship plan to build 40 new hospitals and the proposed two-mile road tunnel bypassing Stonehenge.

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Tories ‘deliberately covered up’ true state of public finances, says minister

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Steve Reed hits out at Conservatives’ handling of public services as chancellor prepares to detail ‘£20bn black hole’

The last Conservative government “deliberately covered up” the true state of public finances, a cabinet minister has said, as the chancellor prepares to detail a “£20bn black hole” in the public finances.

The environment secretary, Steve Reed, said his cabinet colleagues “always knew” the inheritance from the Tories was “going to be bad”, but that since coming to office they had found “additional pressures” that had not been disclosed by the Tories.

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Wealth taxes could raise £10bn to help plug Tory budget hole, say economists

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Reforms to inheritance and capital gains taxes could reduce £20bn shortfall and combat UK’s widening wealth gap

Rachel Reeves could quickly find around £10bn a year to plug half of the fiscal hole left by the Conservatives if she were to raise taxes on soaring levels of unearned wealth, according to leading economists.

New research by the independent Resolution Foundation published today finds that Britain is a country of “booming wealth” but “busted wealth taxes”, leaving ample potential for the chancellor of the exchequer to raise desperately needed funds by raising taxes on the richest.

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Rachel Reeves expected to reveal £20bn shortfall in public finances

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Chancellor may raise some taxes in the autumn due to what Labour describes as its ‘shocking inheritance’ from Tories

Rachel Reeves is expected to reveal a £20bn hole in government spending for essential public services on Monday, paving the way for potential tax rises in the autumn budget.

Labour sources said the blame lay with the Tory government, describing it as a “shocking inheritance” and accusing the former chancellor of “presiding over a black hole and still campaigning for tax cuts”.

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Labour facing moment of truth over tax pledges, economists warn

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Experts say 5.5% pay increase for public sector not ‘consistent’ with spending plans that rule out tax rises

Labour is fast approaching a moment of truth over its election pledges on tax and spending, experts have warned, after Rachel Reeves indicated the government could agree above-inflation pay rises for public sector staff.

The chancellor promised a full statement on pay board recommendations that teachers and NHS workers should receive 5.5% pay awards, ahead of an autumn budget that is set to be one of the most difficult economic balancing acts in years.

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EU plan to impose import duty on cheap goods could dent Shein and Temu

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Brussels move to end tax loophole exploited by China-linked marketplaces could also dent Shein’s planned London listing

The EU is moving forward with plans to impose customs duty on cheap goods in a shift that could hit imports from online retailers and harm a hoped-for London listing by the fast-fashion seller Shein.

The potential change comes amid growing disquiet among retailers based in the UK, elsewhere in Europe, and the US about rising competition from Chinese-linked marketplaces Shein and Temu, which exploit a loophole that excludes low-value items from import duty.

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Sunak and Starmer clash over tax, borders and Brexit deal in final head-to-head before polling day – as it happened

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This live blog is now closed, you can read our full report on this debate here

YouGov will have a snap poll on who won the debate, with the results available minutes after it finishes.

This is what Labour is putting out ahead of the debate, in a stateement from Pat McFadden, the national campaign coordinator.

Tonight, the British people will witness the choice at this election: five more years of chaos with Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives or change with Keir Starmer and Labour.

On 4 July, the British people will have the chance to vote for change. To stop the chaos, turn the page and start to rebuild our country with Keir Starmer and a changed Labour party.

Tonight, Keir Starmer has the opportunity to announce loud and clear to the British public what his intentions are.

Throughout this campaign we have challenged the Labour party, time and time again, to come clean on their plans for taxes. Time and time again they have declined to do so.

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