Some survey results show that the overall picture might not be as rosy as implied by others
A quick glance at the government’s coronavirus dashboard might be fuel for optimism. But new data suggests the picture may not be so rosy.
According to the dashboard, the number of people testing positive for Covid is falling: 37,892 positive tests were reported on Thursday, compared with 62,322 on 6 January. Cases by specimen date show similar trends.
Continue reading...Exclusive: Life expectancy has regressed to 2010 levels, say scientists, with poor hardest hit
The Covid-19 pandemic has cut life expectancy in England and Wales by roughly a year, scientists have estimated, reversing gains made since 2010.
A study, conducted by Oxford researchers, found that life expectancy at birth (LEB) had fallen by 0.9 and 1.2 years for females and males relative to 2019 levels respectively.
Continue reading...Milestone reached on Wednesday after a further 595 people died, bringing total to 50,365
The UK’s Covid-19 death toll has surpassed 50,000, government figures have revealed, as the nation struggles to deal with a deadly second wave.
The news served as a sobering reminder of the severity of the crisis after hopes were raised on Monday that an end may be in sight with announcement that a vaccine had been shown to be effective.
Continue reading...PM says there will be no deal with EU unless there is ‘fundamental change’ in Brussels
From my colleagues Pamela Duncan and Niamh McIntyre
From tonight over half the population of England will be living in areas classed as “high risk” or “very high risk” under the government’s three-tier system, equivalent to 28.4m people.
All of Lancashire county (Lancashire, Blackburn with Darwen and Blackpool council areas) are to move from tier 2 to the higher tier 3 category from midnight, meaning more than 3m people are now living in the highest-risk areas.
Trade negotiations often involve threats to walk away, and dire forecasts, before both side agree to compromise, and Brexit-watchers have been waiting for the UK-EU trade talks to this moment. It came this morning, when Boris Johnson used a TV statement (see 12.29pm) to say that there would no deal without a “fundamental change” in the EU’s approach.
But threats only work if people take them seriously and Johnson’s comments do not seem to have been taken as a sincere statement of intent to talk away. It was telling that, despite being asked twice if he was saying the talks were over, he would not use those words. (See 12.41pm.) If the foreign exchange markets thought Johnson was abandoning hopes of a deal, the pound would have fallen (as it has repeatedly in key moments in the Brexit drama since 2016). But it didn’t. “Market participants see comments from Boris Johnson as mainly political posturing at this stage,” an analyst told Bloomberg.
The pound fluctuates between gains and losses after Boris Johnson says the nation is preparing for a thin, Australia-style trade deal with the EU https://t.co/lzBTCqlY8F pic.twitter.com/YbntZLyFca
There’s no point in trade talks if the EU doesn’t change its position. The EU effectively ended the trade talks yesterday.
Only if the EU fundamentally changes its position will it be worth talking.
What I would say to that is there is only any point in Michel Barnier coming to London next week if he’s prepared to discuss all of the issues on the basis of legal text in an accelerated way without the UK being required to make all of the moves, or if he’s willing to discuss practicalities of areas such as travel and haulage which the PM mentioned in his statement.
Our position is a clear one. Only if the EU fundamentally changes position will it be worthwhile talking.
Continue reading...ONS update also shows that males have higher death rate than females
People of black and South Asian ethnic background have a greater risk of death from Covid than white people, figures have confirmed, revealing such differences are not driven by pre-existing health conditions, but largely down to factors such as living arrangements and jobs.
Since the pandemic began, it has been clear that people of some ethnic backgrounds are at greater risk from the coronavirus than others, with previous data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggesting black people have a four-fold higher risk of dying from Covid than white people.
Continue reading...Latest updates: minister says Covid restrictions require ‘difficult judgment’ of protecting lives while prioritising education and jobs
The Department for Education’s latest school attendance statistics show an increase in the number of state schools in England partially closed because of Covid-19.
More than one in five state secondaries reported being partially closed, meaning that classes or year groups were sent home or were isolating. Previously 82% were classed as “fully open” but last week the proportion fell to 79%.
Attendance in fully open primary schools is now consistent with what we would have expected before coronavirus. Across all state schools, only a small minority of pupils are self-isolating and schools are providing remote education, in line with what pupils would be receiving in school.
We will continue to work with schools to ensure all appropriate steps are taken to keep pupils and staff safe.
A pilot scheme will be launched “shortly” in England which will involve relatives of care home residents being treated as key workers to enable safe visits, Helen Whately, the care minister, has said.
Giving evidence to the joint science and health committee hearing on coronavirus, she said she wanted to enable visiting “but it must be safe”.
Continue reading...News updates: health secretary signals access to testing could be prioritised for those most in need; just 1% of deaths in England and Wales linked to Covid, ONS says
Almost nine in 10 pupils have attended schools in England since their full reopening this month, government figures show. Around 92% of state schools were fully open on Thursday September 10, and approximately 88% of students were back in class on the same day, the Department for Education analysis suggests.
There have been a further 110 cases of Covid-19 in Wales, bringing the total number of confirmed cases in the country to 19,681. Public Health Wales said no further deaths had been reported, with the total number of deaths since the beginning of the pandemic remaining at 1,597.
Continue reading...GDP falls 20.4% – the worst of any G7 nation in the three months to June
Britain has entered the deepest recession since records began as official figures on Wednesday showed the economy shrank by more than any other major nation during the coronavirus outbreak in the three months to June.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of economic prosperity, fell in the second quarter by 20.4% compared with the previous three months – the biggest quarterly decline since comparable records began in 1955.
Continue reading...Official measure to be declared this week as coronavirus lockdown shrinks GDP by 21% in second quarter
Britain’s economy will be officially declared in recession this week for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis, as the coronavirus outbreak plunges the country into the deepest slump on record.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics on Wednesday are expected to show that gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of economic prosperity, fell in the three months to June by 21%.
Continue reading...PHE figures include deaths of anyone who tested positive, even if it was months ago
Matt Hancock has announced an urgent review into how Public Health England (PHE) counts Covid-19 deaths after discovering what appeared to be a serious issue in how rates are calculated.
Following the health secretary’s move on Friday, Yoon K Loke and Carl Heneghan, of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at Oxford University, wrote in a blogpost: “It seems that PHE regularly looks for people on the NHS database who have ever tested positive, and simply checks to see if they are still alive or not. PHE does not appear to consider how long ago the Covid test result was, nor whether the person has been successfully treated in hospital and discharged to the community.”
Continue reading...Charity boss says blaming care sector for repeated government mistakes is unacceptable
The Department of Health and Social Care has recorded a further 155 deaths in the UK in its latest daily update on coronavirus. That takes the official UK death total to 44,391.
As we try to point out every day, this official headline total used by the government is not the actual total. That is because these figures only include people who tested positive for coronavirus and died. Taking into account the deaths of people who did not have a test, but where coronavirus was cited on the death certificate, the real total is more than 55,000.
The Welsh health minister has expressed concern that workers at a food factory where there has been an outbreak of Covid-19 might be spreading the virus because they take it turns to use the same bed.
Speaking at the Welsh government’s daily briefing, Vaughan Gething said there had been a suggestion that workers were coming off shift and jumping into a bed just vacated by a housemate who then went off to work.
I’m genuinely concerned about the conditions that people live within, not just in houses of multiple occupation where people may share bathroom and toilet facilities or kitchens, and the opportunity for contact indoors and surfaces is an obvious concern. You’ve heard that from our scientists, and others.
But in particular, if there is reality to the suggestion that people are sharing beds, there’s an obvious risk if people finish one shift, then return from that shift to get into a bed that someone has just got out of. So there are real issues here about accommodation and how it may be an unhelpful factor in driving transmission within that workforce.
Continue reading...Covid-related facts and definitions are confusing, and as lockdown is eased, clarity is more important than ever
We’re finally over the first peak of the epidemic, but the numbers relating to the virus keep on spreading. Sometimes, however, things get lost in translation from the spreadsheet to the article, broadcast or tweet.
Continue reading...English pubs, restaurants and hairdressers to open from 4 July; gyms to stay closed. English schools to fully reopen in September
Richard Graham, a Conservative, asks if schools and FE colleges will be able to go back normally in September.
Johnson agrees. He says that is what he wants.
Johnson says the government wants to get the prevalence of coronavirus down so much that shielding is no longer needed.
Continue reading...ONS figures show fewest weekly coronavirus deaths in England and Wales for eight weeks
Hundreds more deaths from Covid-19 in the north-west of England and in care homes have driven up the number of excess fatalities since the UK went into lockdown to more than 63,000, a toll believed to be greater than those anywhere else except the US.
The number of deaths from the virus in England and Wales fell to 1,822 in the last week of May, the fewest for eight weeks, according to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). But the numbers remain relatively high in the north-west, where there have been fears of a resurgence of the virus.
Continue reading...Scottish first minister explains measures in phase one of loosening of restrictions; former Tory party chair calls NHS migrant surcharge ‘monstrous’
The Conservative backbenchers Henry Smith has outraged opposition parliamentarians by saying that the objection to MPs returning to the House of Commons after next week’s recess (when the current, largely-virtual proceedings will end) has come from the “lazy left” and from “workshy” Labour and nationalist politicians.
Not that I should be surprised by the lazy left but interesting how work-shy socialist and nationalist MPs tried to keep the remote Parliament going beyond 2 June.
Henry this is an appalling thing to say, would you like to compare cases dealt with in this crisis? Hours helping with food, PPE, testing? Number of questions put down to ministers? Number of bill amendments written? Also calling people working at home workshy is quite something https://t.co/RROVCxbG7O
The government’s own public health advice has said that those who can work from home should and parliament has developed a system using technology to ensure the scrutiny of government whilst allowing people to work remotely.
Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London, told the London assembly this morning that he is considering banning passengers from buses and tube trains in the capital if they are not wearing a face covering. He said that he was hoping to persuade the UK government, which is currently just advising people to wear face coverings on public transport, to toughen its stance. He told the assembly:
We don’t want confusion. When there is a crisis, what’s important is to have message clarity.
Continue reading...Government’s handling of pandemic under scrutiny as UK becomes worst-hit European country
Britain has the worst coronavirus death toll in Europe, official figures showed on Tuesday, prompting calls for an inquiry into the handling of the pandemic.
The government’s tally of fatalities across the UK reached 29,427 for those who tested positive for coronavirus, exceeding the 29,029 recorded in Italy – until now Europe’s worst-hit country. Italy’s total does not include suspected cases.
Continue reading...Coronavirus lockdown in the UK could last at least another month, as Dominic Raab says country has not passed the peak
From BBC Newsnight’s Lewis Goodall
NEW: OBR publishes an economic scenario (not forecast) for what might happen to the UK economy as a result of #Covid19. It assumes a 3 month lockdown.
Unemployment: ⬆️by 2 million.
GDP (2020) ⬇️ 13% in 2020.
If so, would be the worst economic contraction for a century.
Here is an excerpt from the report published by the Office for Budget Responsibility today looking at what impact the coronavirus lockdown could have on the economy. It says GDP could fall by 35% in the second quarter of the year.
Here is an extract.
In addition to its impact on public health, the coronavirus outbreak will substantially raise public sector net borrowing and debt, primarily reflecting economic disruption. The government’s policy response will also have substantial direct budgetary costs, but the measures should help limit the long-term damage to the economy and public finances – the costs of inaction would certainly have been higher ...
We do not attempt to predict how long the economic lockdown will last – that is a matter for the government, informed by medical advice. But, to illustrate some of the potential fiscal effects, we assume a three-month lockdown due to public health restrictions followed by another three-month period when they are partially lifted. For now, we assume no lasting economic hit.
Continue reading...Fall in UK-produced emissions has been offset by those from increase in imported products
Britain has contributed to the global climate emergency by outsourcing its carbon emissions to developing nations, according to official figures, despite managing to weaken the domestic link between fossil fuels and economic growth.
The Office for National Statistics said the UK had become the biggest net importer of carbon dioxide emissions per capita in the G7 group of wealthy nations – outstripping the US and Japan – as a result of buying goods manufactured abroad.
Continue reading...Rolling coverage of the day’s political developments as they happen, including Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn at PMQs
- The government are defeated on Labour’s amendment 13 in the House of Lords. The amendment makes it an “objective” of the government during negotiations to pursue a free trade deal allowing the UK to stay “in a customs union” with the EU after Brexit.
- The government was defeated on amendment 12 which called for parliamentary approval of future trade agreements.
Prince Charles has saluted the ”unparalleled bonds” between Britain and Ireland at a time of strained Anglo-Irish relations caused by Brexit.
The Prince of Wales was attending a special St Patrick’s Day dinner at the Irish embassy in London where British and Irish politicians mingled amid continuing uncertainty and recriminations over the Irish border issue in the Brexit withdrawal agreement.
Continue reading...