Category Archives: Economic growth (GDP)

Liz Truss fights for survival as even allies say she could have only days left

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Prime minister to meet mutinous Tory MPs this week in effort to shore up her position after U-turns on tax

Liz Truss is fighting for her political survival, with Conservative MPs threatening to oust her and even allies warning she has just days to turn around her premiership despite ripping up her economic strategy and appointing Jeremy Hunt as chancellor.

The beleaguered prime minister will attempt to shore up her crumbling support by gathering her cabinet ministers at No 10 on Monday and then embarking on a series of meetings with mutinous Tory MPs before the next budget in a fortnight’s time.

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Unfunded tax cuts mean UK ‘will need £60bn spending cuts’

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IFS says Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget will leave ministers making serious reductions in public services

Kwasi Kwarteng will need to find £60bn of savings by 2026 to fill the gap left by unfunded tax cuts and the costs of extra borrowing triggered by a panicked reaction on international money markets to the chancellor’s “mini-budget”, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

The UK will also struggle to hit the chancellor’s 2.5% growth target, with economic forecasts by the investment bank Citigroup that the IFS uses to underpin its analysis showing the UK will struggle to grow at more than 0.8% on average over the next five years.

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Truss’s mini-budget looks likely to cost the Tories the next election | Pippa Crerar

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Tory MPs fear voters see them as the nasty party again after the prime minister refused to rethink tax cuts for the rich

Liz Truss has long channelled Margaret Thatcher – echoing her rhetoric, her free market instincts and even her clothes – but as the Tory conference kicked off in Birmingham on Sunday many in her party were hoping that she would relinquish ambitions to be the next Iron Lady and drop her mini-budget plans.

There were early glimmers of hope. In an article for the Sun, she admitted her proposals would cause “short term disruption” but that she had an “iron grip” on the country’s finances. Then she told the BBC she understood public concerns. “I do accept we should have laid the ground better,” she said.

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Liz Truss admits she should have ‘laid ground better’ before mini-budget and says cabinet not consulted about 45% top rate tax cut – live

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Latest updates: PM vows to press ahead with mini-budget plans and dismisses objections to top rate of tax being axed

Q: Are you absolutely committed to getting rid of the 45% rate of tax?

Yes, says Truss.

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‘Fiscal sustainability’ plus rising borrowing costs could add up to cuts

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To make the sums work, some suggest Kwasi Kwarteng may include deep spending reductions in his medium-term fiscal plan

When Kwasi Kwarteng met City figures on Tuesday, the Treasury said he had “reiterated the government’s commitment to fiscal sustainability”: though the grim faces of attendees in the official photos suggested they may not have been terribly reassured.

Some analysts are now warning that with borrowing costs rising sharply, and the chancellor determined not to water down his radical tax plans, “fiscal sustainability” points to one thing: spending cuts.

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Liz Truss ‘plans to loosen immigration rules to boost UK economy’

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PM expected to expand shortage occupation list to help businesses fill jobs amid recession warnings

Liz Truss is expected to loosen immigration rules in an attempt to stimulate economic growth amid warnings of a recession.

The prime minister is set to expand the government’s shortage occupation list in order to help businesses fill vacancies by recruiting overseas workers with less bureaucracy.

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UK economy shrank by 0.1% in three months to June

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ONS says two bank holidays to mark Queen’s jubilee contributed to fall in output in June

Britain’s economy contracted by 0.1% in the three months to June, according to official figures that revealed the weakening outlook for the UK, which is expected to enter a recession later this year.

The dip in output in the second quarter followed 0.8% growth in the first quarter and was driven by the health sector – as Covid testing and the vaccine programme was wound down – and by retail, as household spending fell. Economists had forecast a bigger fall in output of 0.2% in the second quarter.

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Bank of England hikes interest rates and says inflation will hit 13%

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Base rate raised by 0.5 percentage points to 1.75%, as Bank says inflation will hit 13% in October

Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has left Britain on course for a recession lasting more than a year and inflation above 13%, the Bank of England has warned as it raised interest rates for a sixth successive time.

Threadneedle Street said it had no choice but to increase borrowing costs by 0.5 percentage points to 1.75%, blaming Russia for cost of living pressures not seen in more than four decades and a 5% drop in living standards straddling this year and next – the biggest since records began in the 1960s.

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York and North Yorkshire to get mayor under £540m devolution deal

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Elected leader would take office in 2024 alongside return of powers from Westminster as part of levelling-up agenda

York and North Yorkshire are to elect a mayor and receive £540m of government investment over 30 years in a landmark devolution deal to be signed on Monday.

The agreement will create a new combined authority across the region led by a directly elected mayor, who will have the power to spend the money on local priorities such as transport, education and housing.

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Tory leadership race: Rishi Sunak calls himself ‘common sense’ Thatcherite – as it happened

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Former chancellor says UK ‘needs to control borders’ and again references Margaret Thatcher

In an interview with GB News, Liz Truss was asked if she would keep the expensive wallpaper in the Downing Street flat, installed as part of Boris Johnson’s controversial refurbishment, if she became PM. In what is being seen by some as a dig at Johnson, she replied:

I’m not going to have the time to be thinking about the wallpaper in No 10, because we’ve only got two years until the general election – we need to hit the ground running.

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Boris Johnson has left the UK economy in a parlous state

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Analysis: If Johnsonomics stands for anything, it is a lack of plan or vision to address Britain’s economic woes

Boris Johnson entered Downing Street in July 2019 with a promise. The doubters, doomsters and gloomsters were going to get it wrong again: his leadership would make Brexit a success, re-igniting an economy stalled by the divisions over Europe.

Three years later, almost to the day, he prepares to leave with the country reeling from a political implosion of his own making, and an economy teetering on the brink of recession.

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Pound falls to lowest level since pandemic crash

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Unemployment rise and prospect of new Scottish independence referendum fuel recession fears

The pound has fallen to its lowest level against the dollar since the onset of the Covid pandemic amid growing concern over the strength of the British economy.

Sterling dropped by more than a cent against the dollar to trade below $1.20 on foreign exchange markets for the first time since March 2020, as City traders reacted to mixed figures from the jobs market and the prospect of a fresh referendum on Scottish independence.

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Zero-growth warning for UK economy as petrol prices surge

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OECD singles out cost of living crisis as a cause of Britain’s slide down growth league table

Boris Johnson’s attempt to reset his troubled premiership has received a double blow after petrol prices had their biggest daily rise in 17 years and a leading international thinktank said the UK economy would slow to a standstill next year.

Fears that Britain is heading for a prolonged period of 1970s-style stagflation intensified amid fresh evidence of the damaging impact of the war in Ukraine on the cost of living and growth.

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Cutting City regulation risks another financial crash, say economists

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Leading economists publish letter to Rishi Sunak in response to proposed financial services and markets bill

A group of 58 leading economists and politicians, including the former business minister Vince Cable, has written to the chancellor to say that scaling back City regulation will put the UK at risk of another financial crash.

The open letter, which has also been signed by the former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis and Columbia University professor Adam Tooze, was sent in reaction to the Queen’s speech, which outlined Rishi Sunak’s plans to “cut red tape” through a financial services and markets bill.

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Bank of England ‘duty bound’ to trigger recession to curb inflation

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Ex-official says policymakers must shrink the UK economy to limit upward pressure on prices made worse by Brexit

Britain’s central bank policymakers are “duty bound” when they meet this week to push the UK into recession to cap rising inflation, a former Bank of England (BoE) official has said.

Adam Posen, who runs Washington-based thinktank the Peterson Institute, said that while the Bank of England would not want workers to lose their jobs, it should hike interest rates now to squeeze out inflationary pressures made worse by Brexit trade and immigration restrictions.

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UK consumer confidence even lower than in 2008 financial crisis

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Slowdown in retail sector feared as public gripped by pessimism about the economy as well as personal finances

Fears that Britain is heading for a marked slowdown in consumer spending have intensified as it emerged that the public is gloomier about the economy than when banks were on the brink of collapse during the financial crisis of 2008.

A combination of rocketing energy prices, higher taxes and a surge in the annual inflation rate to its highest level in three decades meant confidence was in freefall, according to the latest monthly snapshot of sentiment.

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Ukraine crisis puts Sunak under new pressure to axe national insurance rise

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Tory MPs and business groups urge chancellor to scrap increase intended to fund NHS and social care amid fears of stagflation

Chancellor Rishi Sunak is under renewed pressure from MPs and business groups to rethink plans to increase national insurance next month, as fears grow that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will dramatically worsen the cost of living crisis and plunge the economy into “stagflation”.

Both Tory and Labour MPs believe Sunak can still be persuaded to ditch the 1.25 percentage point rise – announced last September to fund the NHS and social care – and want him to use the potentially devastating effects of events in Ukraine on prices as justification for what they say is an urgently needed U-turn.

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UK economy back to pre-pandemic levels in November

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GDP expanded by 0.9% before impact of Omicron as Christmas shopping began early

The UK economy surpassed its pre-pandemic level for the first time in November after growing by 0.9% over the month, partly driven by an unexpected surge in early Christmas shopping.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said a jump in restaurant bookings and a rapid turnaround in construction output were also behind the growth that took the size of the economy 0.7% above its level before March 2020.

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Brexit one year on: so how’s it going?

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Those promised rewards for Britain of leaving the EU should surely be with us by now. What have been the costs and gains of ‘taking our country back’?

• UK and the EU set to remain best of enemies as 2022 dawns

On New Year’s Day the UK will have been fully out of the European Union for a year: out of its political and legal structures, out of its single market, out of its customs union.

This was what Boris Johnson and Michael Gove – who led the Leave campaign – had wanted. No awkward halfway house like Theresa May had negotiated. No Brexit light. Out completely. Gone. Brexit well and truly done.

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Budget 2021: what’s really going on in the UK economy?

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Rishi Sunak will be looking at key indicators such as GDP growth, public debt levels and inflation as he draws up his autumn budget

Britain’s economic recovery from Covid is at growing risk from severe shortages of workers and materials, as well as mounting living costs for households, as Rishi Sunak prepares his budget and spending review.

Here are five key charts that will underpin the chancellor’s statement on Wednesday afternoon.

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