We attacked Iran with no clear plan for regime change, Israeli security sources say

If regime holds, control of enriched uranium may be ultimate measure of US-Israeli success, insiders say

Israel did not have a realistic plan for regime change when it attacked Iran, multiple Israeli security sources have said, with expectations that airstrikes could lead to a popular uprising having been driven by “wishful thinking” rather than hard intelligence.

Iran has survived nearly two weeks of bombing raids and the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Trump is publicly contemplating ending the increasingly costly war.

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‘America’s mortal enemy’: Pete Hegseth expressed extreme antipathy toward Iran for years

Comments in books, speeches and videos shed new light on defense secretary’s personal commitment to war on Iran

The US defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, has expressed a violent antipathy towards Iran for years in books, Fox News broadcasts, educational videos and a 2018 speech to an Israeli media conference in Jerusalem, a Guardian review has revealed.

In a 2020 book, for example, Hegseth wrote that Iran’s leaders were “actively seeking the military means – especially nuclear weapons – to bring the West to its knees”. And in a 2017 video for PragerU, the hard-right media platform, Hegseth described Iran as “America’s mortal enemy”.

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‘America’s mortal enemy’: Pete Hegseth expressed extreme antipathy toward Iran for years

Comments in books, speeches and videos shed new light on defense secretary’s personal commitment to war on Iran

The US defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, has expressed a violent antipathy towards Iran for years in books, Fox News broadcasts, educational videos and a 2018 speech to an Israeli media conference in Jerusalem, a Guardian review has revealed.

In a 2020 book, for example, Hegseth wrote that Iran’s leaders were “actively seeking the military means – especially nuclear weapons – to bring the West to its knees”. And in a 2017 video for PragerU, the hard-right media platform, Hegseth described Iran as “America’s mortal enemy”.

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Thursday briefing: What an Iran negotiator thinks could happen next – and why Trump still has an off-ramp

In today’s newsletter: Robert Malley, who led talks for the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, helps make sense of the war

Good morning, and apologies for the interruption to your usual programming. Stepping out from behind the editing desk to write today’s newsletter feels somewhat like a player-manager throwing himself on to the pitch, but I’ll try not to destabilise your morning routine too much. Lord knows, the world doesn’t need any more chaos.

Since the US and Israel first attacked Iran two weeks ago, it’s been a scramble to keep up with events. The death of a supreme leader, speculation about his successor, global implications ranging from oil price spikes to drones raining down on once-safe cities like Doha and Dubai – the world has rarely felt so unstable.

Iran | Iran dramatically escalated its strategy of striking civilian infrastructure and transport networks across the Gulf on Wednesday, attacking commercial ships and targeting Dubai’s international airport as US and Israeli warplanes launched new waves of strikes on the Islamic Republic.

UK news | Keir Starmer overruled officials who warned of a “reputational risk” in making Peter Mandelson US ambassador, despite being handed a dossier of evidence about the peer’s relationship with the sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, documents reveal.

Artificial intelligence | Popular AI chatbots helped researchers plot violent attacks, including bombing synagogues and assassinating politicians, with one telling a user posing as a would-be school shooter: “Happy (and safe) shooting!”

Oil | The International Energy Agency is poised to call for the largest release of government oil reserves in its history to help calm the oil price shock triggered by the US-Israeli attacks on Iran.

UK politics | Keir Starmer warned his cabinet against an “overly deferential” approach to the Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish governments, telling ministers they should be prepared to make spending decisions “even when devolved governments may oppose this”, according to a leaked memo.

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European drivers face €220 a year jump in fuel costs due to Iran conflict, say experts

Exclusive: Oil at $100 a barrel means higher prices in the EU and UK, making savings for those with electric vehicles even greater, analysts say

European drivers face paying an extra €220 (£190) a year at the pumps because of the surge in oil prices caused by the war in Iran, analysts have warned. In the UK, a separate estimate puts the cost at an extra £140.

A sustained oil price of $100 a barrel, the level seen on Monday, would mean motorists in the EU paying €55bn more over a year, researchers at the Transport & Environment (T&E) thinktank estimated. That is the equivalent of an average of €220 for each driver, with higher-mileage drivers facing even bigger hikes. The assessment was made by comparing data from 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed the oil price to the $100 mark, with data from 2017-2019.

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European drivers face €220 a year jump in fuel costs due to Iran conflict, say experts

Exclusive: Oil at $100 a barrel means higher prices in the EU and UK, making savings for those with electric vehicles even greater, analysts say

European drivers face paying an extra €220 (£190) a year at the pumps because of the surge in oil prices caused by the war in Iran, analysts have warned. In the UK, a separate estimate puts the cost at an extra £140.

A sustained oil price of $100 a barrel, the level seen on Monday, would mean motorists in the EU paying €55bn more over a year, researchers at the Transport & Environment (T&E) thinktank estimated. That is the equivalent of an average of €220 for each driver, with higher-mileage drivers facing even bigger hikes. The assessment was made by comparing data from 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed the oil price to the $100 mark, with data from 2017-2019.

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Oil price tops $100 again as Iran strikes economic targets across Middle East

Vast release of emergency crude reserves fails to quell mounting fears around energy supply crunch, rattling global markets

Oil prices again topped $100 a barrel on Thursday as widespread Iranian attacks on Middle Eastern energy facilities overshadowed a vast release of government reserves.

As Donald Trump vowed to “finish the job” and press ahead with the US-Israel war on Iran, the country’s regime stepped up retaliatory strikes on economic targets across the region.

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Oil price tops $100 again as Iran strikes economic targets across Middle East

Vast release of emergency crude reserves fails to quell mounting fears around energy supply crunch, rattling global markets

Oil prices again topped $100 a barrel on Thursday as widespread Iranian attacks on Middle Eastern energy facilities overshadowed a vast release of government reserves.

As Donald Trump vowed to “finish the job” and press ahead with the US-Israel war on Iran, the country’s regime stepped up retaliatory strikes on economic targets across the region.

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Asia scrambles to confront energy crisis unleashed by Iran war – with no end in sight

From fuel caps to four-day work weeks, the Middle East conflict has left the world’s top crude oil importing region desperate to shore up supplies

Donald Trump has scrambled in recent days to reassure the world that the economic impact of his war on Iran can be contained.

Sure, one of the most important waterways in global trade has, in effect, been shut for almost two weeks – but it might reopen before long. In the meantime, US oil-related sanctions on “some countries” will be lifted. And besides, the entire conflict could be over soon.

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Asia scrambles to confront energy crisis unleashed by Iran war – with no end in sight

From fuel caps to four-day work weeks, the Middle East conflict has left the world’s top crude oil importing region desperate to shore up supplies

Donald Trump has scrambled in recent days to reassure the world that the economic impact of his war on Iran can be contained.

Sure, one of the most important waterways in global trade has, in effect, been shut for almost two weeks – but it might reopen before long. In the meantime, US oil-related sanctions on “some countries” will be lifted. And besides, the entire conflict could be over soon.

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Countries must seek energy independence through renewables and nuclear, says John Kerry

Former US secretary of state says oil shock driven by war in Iran highlights dangers of reliance on fossil fuels

Countries must seek energy independence through renewable resources and nuclear energy for their national security, and to avoid the “choke points” of fossil fuel supply, the former US secretary of state John Kerry has warned.

The war in Iran has sent oil prices soaring, as refineries and fields have closed down in several Middle Eastern countries and many tankers are stranded in the strait of Hormuz, with economic impacts beginning to be felt around the world.

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Can the IEA put a lid on the price per barrel by releasing oil stockpiles?

Despite rare act of multilateralism, there is no guarantee the IEA’s release of 400m barrels from reserves will depress prices

When the global economy was still in the grip of the devastating 1970s oil crises, exposing the chokehold exerted by a few important oil states, the International Energy Agency (IEA) was created, in the hope of limiting future shocks.

Almost half a century on, the IEA’s 32 members have drawn up plans to hit the emergency button, for only the fifth time in its history.

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Mojtaba Khamenei was hurt in strike that killed his father, Iran’s Cyprus ambassador confirms

Alireza Salarian says Iran’s new supreme leader was lucky to survive strike that killed six of his family members

Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, was injured in the 28 February attack that killed six of his family members, including his father, Tehran’s ambassador to Cyprus has confirmed.

In an interview conducted at his embassy compound in Nicosia, Alireza Salarian elaborated on the circumstances in which Khamenei, 56, was injured, saying he was lucky to survive the strike, which levelled the late ayatollah’s residence.

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Thousands of pets being abandoned in Dubai as owners flee over Iran war

RSPCA say animals could become ‘hidden victims’ of conflict as charities in Gulf city report being overwhelmed

Thousands of pets are being abandoned in Dubai as their owners flee the Middle East because of the Iran war, animal charities have said.

The RSPCA said pets of fleeing UK nationals could become “hidden victims” of the conflict as people who had relocated to the Gulf city scramble for an exit and struggle to bring their animals.

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US weighs sending forces into Iran to secure nuclear stockpile, reports say

Tehran has enough material to make at least 10 nuclear warheads but extracting it would be very risky, say experts

The Trump administration is reportedly considering the deployment of special forces into Iran to secure its stockpile of highly enriched uranium (HEU), which experts say could be used to make at least 10 nuclear warheads.

Preventing Iran from acquiring a bomb is one of Trump’s stated war aims, and the 440kg HEU stockpile represents the greatest nuclear threat as it could be turned into weapons-grade uranium relatively easily. The US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, has told Congress that “people are going to have to go and get it”.

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Royal Navy’s HMS Dragon sails for eastern Mediterranean

Destroyer leaves Portsmouth a week after deployment was announced following drone attack on RAF base in Cyprus

The Royal Navy destroyer HMS Dragon departed Portsmouth on Tuesday afternoon for the eastern Mediterranean after six days of hasty preparation and a week after its deployment was announced by the prime minister.

The warship is expected to take between five and seven days to arrive off the coast of Cyprus, where it will be able to defend against drone and missile attacks from Iran or its proxies in Lebanon or Iraq.

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Aramco warns of oil market ‘catastrophe’ unless strait of Hormuz reopens soon

Saudi Arabian state oil firm calls crisis by far the biggest the region has seen but firm can reroute 70% of exports and tap crude held in storage

Saudi Arabia’s state oil company has warned of “catastrophic consequences” for the world’s oil markets if the US-Israeli war with Iran continues to block shipping in the strait of Hormuz.

The world’s biggest oil exporter expects to be able to supply the market with about 70% of its usual crude output despite the stranglehold on the vital trade artery, but its chief executive warned that there would still be “drastic” consequences for the world economy if the disruption continues.

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Iranians living in UK tell Starmer that war will only strengthen Tehran regime

Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe among more than 100 signatories to letter urging PM not to get drawn further into the conflict

Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe is among three of Iran’s former political prisoners and more than 100 Iranians living in the UK who have urged the British prime minister not to get drawn further into the Iran conflict.

They are all signatories in a letter to Keir Starmer saying the way the war is being conducted is strengthening the regime in Tehran.

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Cathay Pacific offers £20,000 Sydney-London flight amid disruption in Gulf

Hong Kong-based airline has business-class return listed at A$39,577, as travellers seek routes avoiding Middle East

The Hong Kong-based airline Cathay Pacific is selling seats from Sydney to London for more than £20,000 in April, as passengers search for scarce long-haul flights without changing in the Middle East.

The tickets, listed at A$39,577 in business class for returns departing in mid-April, far outstrip the usual fares charged even in the first-class cabin.

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Qantas hikes international air fares citing volatile oil prices from war in Middle East

Airline reports spike in ticket sales to Europe in March, as passengers with carriers affected by flight chaos rebook

Qantas has announced it is increasing the price of its international air fares amid oil price volatility caused by the war in the Middle East, while the airline also reported higher-than-normal ticket sales for flights to Europe.

While the company hedges against change in jet fuel prices, it was not fully covered for the spike seen in the wake of surging oil prices, a spokesperson said on Tuesday.

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