Category Archives: Economics

US credit rating downgrade could add to pressure on government debt

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Loss of Moody’s triple-A rating comes amid concerns about fiscal trajectory and widening budget deficit

US government debt may come under more pressure this week after the credit rating agency Moody’s stripped the US of its top-notch triple-A credit rating.

Moody’s dealt a blow to Washington last Friday, when it downgraded the US and warned about rising levels of government debt and a widening budget deficit. Moody’s cut its credit rating on the US by one notch to Aa1 from Aaa, becoming the last of the big three agencies to downgrade the US.

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London dominates England’s social mobility league with top 20 places

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Sutton Trust ‘opportunity index’ measured factors such as children on free school meals passing key GCSEs

The top 20 constituencies with the best social mobility in England are all in London, according to research from a leading education charity that underscores the stark regional divide in children’s life chances.

In a report published on Thursday, the Sutton Trust has put together an “opportunity index” by analysing six measures of mobility. These include the share of children on free school meals who achieve passes in GCSE maths and English; who complete a degree by age 22; and who make it into the top 20% of earners by age 28.

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Rising goods prices could delay UK interest rate cuts, says Bank policymaker

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Bank of England’s Catherine Mann wary of firms looking to rebuild profit margins after a squeeze

Businesses will need to show they are keeping a lid on prices before there can be further interest rate cuts, according to the Bank of England interest rate-setter Catherine Mann.

In a warning to retailers and consumer goods companies to resist pushing up prices by more than the increase in their costs, Mann said she was wary of firms looking to rebuild their profit margins after a squeeze in recent years.

“I need to see the loss of pricing power, I need to see that firms are starting to be much more moderate in setting their prices,” she said.

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China issues warning to UK over terms of US trade deal

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UK accused of aligning with US in move that could compel firms to exclude Chinese products from supply chains

China has warned the UK over its new trade deal with the US, accusing Britain of aligning with the US in a move that could compel British companies to exclude Chinese products from their supply chains.

The UK-US trade deal, signed last week, offers Britain limited relief from US tariffs on car and steel exports, but only if it complies with strict American security requirements. These conditions include scrutinising supply chains and ownership structures – a move widely interpreted as targeting Chinese involvement.

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Trump claims ‘total reset’ in US-China trade relations after tariff talks in Geneva

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US president praises ‘very good’ discussions as top US and Chinese officials meet over trade war triggered by Trump’s tariff blitz

Donald Trump has hailed a “total reset” in US-China trade relations after the first day of talks between top American and Chinese officials in Geneva aimed at defusing a trade war sparked by his tariff rollout.

The US president praised the “very good” discussions and deemed them “a total reset negotiated in a friendly, but constructive, manner”.

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Chinese and US officials meet in Geneva for ‘de-escalation’ trade talks

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World Trade Organization hails ‘constructive step’ as senior figures come together to discuss tariffs

Senior US and Chinese officials held talks early on Saturday in Geneva in a tentative first step towards defusing a trade war that is disrupting the global economy, according to China’s state-owned news agency and people close to the talks.

China’s vice-premier, He Lifeng, and the US treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, met after weeks of growing tensions as duties on imports between the world’s two largest economies have risen above 100%.

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Giving weight loss jabs could bolster UK economy by £4.5bn a year, study says

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Providing semaglutide for all those eligible may bring productivity gains as people are able to work more

Giving weight loss jabs to everyone eligible for them could boost the UK economy by £4.5bn, according to research.

Worldwide, about 3.8 billion people over 25 and just under 750 million children and young people are forecast to be overweight or obese by 2050. In England, 26.5% of adults are obese, while across the UK 4.6 million are diagnosed with type 2 diabetes.

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Trump floats cutting Chinese tariffs from 145% to 80% before weekend talks

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Meeting aimed at de-escalating trade war after Chinese exports beat expectations despite slump in trade

Donald Trump has floated cutting tariffs on China from 145% to 80% before a weekend meeting as he looks to de-escalate the trade war.

Top US officials are expected to meet a high-level Chinese delegation this weekend in Switzerland in the first significant talks between the two nations since Trump provoked a trade war with stiff tariffs on imports.

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UK interest rate cut: what does it mean for mortgages and savings?

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The Bank of England has voted to cut the cost of borrowing, reducing the base rate to 4.25%. Here’s what it means for you

The Bank of England has cut interest rates from 4.5% to 4.25%.

It follows two interest rate cuts in the second half of last year, and another one in February this year.

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UK interest rates fall to 4.25% as Bank of England announces a quarter-point cut

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Move follows run of downbeat economic data and looks to cushion UK from Trump’s trade war fallout

Bank of England policymakers have cut interest rates by a quarter point to 4.25% to cushion the UK economy against the impact of Donald Trump’s trade war.

The widely expected move from the Bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC), its fourth cut since last August, should lead to cheaper mortgages for homeowners.

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Has UK-India trade deal ‘sold out British workers’ as Farage and Badenoch claim?

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Row over exemption of national insurance contributions for Indian short-term workers overshadows deal

A multibillion-pound free trade agreement with India has long been touted as a big Brexit boon.

Cheaper clothes and shoes for British shoppers, a huge market for scotch whisky producers and luxury carmakers, and billions of pounds worth of extra trade are among the benefits of the agreement, which was finalised this week.

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China to cut interest rates in response to trade war with US

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Half-point cut to be made to banks’ reserve requirement ratio and 1tn yuan released into banking system

China will cut interest rates and inject some much-needed liquidity into the domestic economy, as the country steels itself for a bruising trade war with the US.

The People’s Bank of China said on Wednesday it would make a half-point cut to the banks’ reserve requirement ratio, its benchmark interest rate, and release 1tn yuan (£103.6bn) into the banking system.

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Starmer beats Trump to the line in race for trade deal with India

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India has made concessions in trade negotiations, leaving UK heralding deal as ‘most significant’ since Brexit

It is not exactly the deepest and most comprehensive trade deal the UK has ever entered, but the timing of the announcement that Keir Starmer has clinched a free trade deal with India could not be more fortunate.

Over the weekend, the US president, Donald Trump, hinted he was on the verge of announcing his first trade deal, prompting speculation it could be with Japan, South Korea or India.

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Why is Trump ending the ‘de minimis’ tariff loophole on low-value imports?

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Goods worth less than $800 will be subject to 120% levy meaning prices on Chinese exports will probably increase

At one minute past midnight on Friday, eastern time, a US tariff exemption that has fuelled the rise of companies such as Shein and Temu, and stocked the wardrobes of millions of Americans with cheap fast fashion and other household goods, closed. As part of Donald Trump’s flurry of tariffs on China, the US is closing a loophole that allowed low-value goods to be shipped into the US without paying any import fees. The “de minimis” loophole, known by the Latin phrase for “of little importance”, was “a big scam going on against our country”, the US president said on Wednesday. “We put an end to it.”

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Trump tariffs cause fastest slump in British factory export orders in five years

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Decline in output and new orders in April allied with rising uncertainty is prompting layoffs, survey finds

Britain’s factories suffered a slump in export orders last month as Donald Trump’s globally unsettling tariff regime sent overseas demand for UK goods tumbling at the fastest pace in five years.

Manufacturers reported rising economic and trade uncertainties in April as some tariffs took effect and other threatened border taxes loomed, forcing them to lay off workers for a sixth consecutive month.

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Chinese e-commerce exports to US plummet by 65% in face of tariffs

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Temu and Shein among fast-fashion sites affected by drop in first three months of this year but sales in rise to EU

Exports to the US from Chinese online shops such as Temu and Shein have plunged in the face of Donald Trump’s trade war, as shipping from China to the EU has increased.

Official Chinese data showed its total e-commerce shipping to the US dropped 65% by volume in the first three months of the year, but rose by 28% in Europe.

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Labour not protecting people, economy and homes from climate crisis, watchdog says

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Plans to protect UK from extreme weather are inadequate, Climate Change Committee says in scathing assessment

Labour is putting people, the economy and the environment in increasing peril by failing to act on the effects of the climate crisis, the UK’s climate watchdog has said.

Flooding, droughts and heatwaves are all increasing in severity due to climate breakdown, but current plans to protect people, land and infrastructure against extreme weather have been judged inadequate in a scathing assessment of the UK’s preparedness.

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Trump reveals plans to ease tariff impact on US carmakers

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US president will curb some duties on foreign parts in domestically manufactured cars, administration says

Donald Trump unveiled plans to water down his sweeping tariffs for US carmakers on Tuesday by curbing some duties on foreign cars and parts, granting a reprieve to an industry that warned his strategy would increase costs for American manufacturers by tens of billions of dollars.

Carmakers subject to a 25% tariff on imports will not be subject to other levies Trump has imposed, for example, on steel and aluminum. US automakers will also be allowed to apply for tariff relief on a proportion of the costs imposed for imported parts, although that relief will be phased out over the next two years.

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African diplomats urge UK government to back bill to speed up debt restructurings

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Exclusive: Countries are struggling to manage expensive loans, with much of debt transacted through London

Diplomats from eight southern and east African countries have signed a letter calling on the UK government to support a private member’s bill that aims to speed up debt restructurings, after economic crises meant countries were unable to pay back loans.

Poor countries’ economies have been hit by a series of global events in recent years, including the coronavirus pandemic, which reduced growth; the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which sent inflation soaring; and raised US interest rates, which have pushed up the cost of international loans to often unaffordable levels.

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US consumer sentiment sees largest drop since 1990 after Trump tariff chaos

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Experts warn of slowing economy after score based on Americans’ financial outlooks fell by 32% since January

US consumer sentiment plummeted in April after Donald Trump’s trade war threw the global economy into chaos, according to a new report.

The index of consumer sentiment, a score based on a monthly survey asking Americans about their financial outlooks, fell by 32% since January – the largest drop since the 1990 recession, according to the University of Michigan’s Institute for Social Research.

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