Category Archives: Economics

Bank of England governor says jobs slowdown could prompt rate cut; European markets fall after Trump tariff threat – business live

Posted on by

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as Andrew Bailey insists: “I think the path [for interest rates] is down”.

A Bank of England interest rate cut next month is looking more likely, according to the latest city pricing.

The money markets are indicating there’s now an 85% chance that the Bank cuts interest rates at its next meeting on 7 August, up from 76% at the end of last week.

Friday’s disappointing GDP figures, combined with these weak jobs figures boost the case for the Bank of England to cut interest rates in August. The central bank’s governor Andrew Bailey told The Times ‘slack’ was opening up in the labour market, and he believes ‘the path is downward’ for interest rates.

All eyes are on Wednesday’s inflation report with CPI expected to remain at remain around 3.4% in June, roughly unchanged for the third consecutive month.”

Continue reading...

Enduring confusion is the only certainty amid Trump’s latest tariff threats

Posted on by

Experts suspect ‘frontloading’ of activity may have masked deeper impact of tariffs on the US economy

“There has been no change to this date, and there will be no change,” Donald Trump said on his Truth Social platform this week. “All money will be due and payable starting AUGUST 1, 2025 – no extensions will be granted.”

There had, in fact, been a change. The 90-day “pause” on the highest tariffs threatened by Trump on his so-called “liberation day” in April, elapsed on Wednesday. But with just three trade agreements in place, instead of the 300 once promised, the White House had switched one deadline for another.

Continue reading...

EU may as well be ‘province of China’ due to reliance on imports, says industrialist

Posted on by

Stefan Scherer, boss of AMG Lithium, says Europe must become more self-sufficient in critical raw materials and new technologies

The EU may as well “apply to be a province of China” such is its inability to wean itself off that country’s supply of critical raw materials used in everything from electric vehicles to smartphones and wind turbines, a leading German industrialist has said.

As chief executive of AMG Lithium, the EU’s first factory to make the lithium hydroxide used in many car batteries, Stefan Scherer sits at the centre of what has been dubbed a new gold rush.

Continue reading...

White House says Canadian PM ‘caved’ to Trump demand to scrap tech tax

Posted on by

Trump officials hail U-turn as Mark Carney says decision to rescind digital services tax means revival of trade talks

The United States has said that Canada’s prime minister Mark Carney “caved” to demands from the White House after his government abruptly scrapped their digital services tax on US technology companies, which was set to go into effect on Monday.

“It’s very simple. Prime minister Carney and Canada caved to president [Donald] Trump and the United States of America,” press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a daily briefing.

Continue reading...

UK economic growth confirmed at 0.7% in first quarter; Lincolnshire oil refinery calls in administrators – business live

Posted on by

UK-US trade deal kicks in today, lowering tariffs for British carmakers and aerospace sector

UK households hit by squeeze on living standards despite fastest growth in G7

Karim Haji, global and UK head of financial services at KPMG, said:

May’s uptick in mortgage approvals bucks the downward trend we’ve seen throughout the year so far. The gradual easing of interest rates could be helping to boost confidence and demand amongst mortgage borrowers.

The cost of living remains high, but a drop in consumer borrowing in May signals that rising incomes are starting to feed through to the cost of day-to-day expenses.

It is incredibly positive news to see an increased number of mortgage applications approved. It is one of the loudest signals of them all regarding consumer affordability, and it is also a massive vote of confidence from lenders in the longer-term prospects of the economy too.

As we head into the summer months, we have witnessed on average the number of viewings per property available see an uplift of around 30% compared to the month previous. On top of this, we have also seen the UK Government make a pledge to create a National Housing Bank which could bring significant investment to help build 500,000 new homes, enabling a potential greater degree of flexibility for those who aspire to buy.

Continue reading...

Lindsey oil refinery owner Prax falls into administration as ministers urged to intervene

Posted on by

Fears over fuel supplies and jobs as Lincolnshire facility handles nearly a tenth of total UK capacity

One of the UK’s largest oil refineries – and the only big one owned by a British company – has collapsed into administration, prompting calls for the government to intervene urgently to protect fuel supplies and jobs.

State Oil, which owns the Prax Lindsey refinery in north Lincolnshire, called in administrators on Monday, Sky News reported first, prompting concern from the trade union Unite.

Continue reading...

Rising poverty in conflict zones ‘causes a billion people to go hungry’

Posted on by

In first assessment since pandemic in 2020, World Bank urges other countries to step up support

Extreme poverty is accelerating in 39 countries affected by war and conflict, leaving more than a billion people to go hungry, according to the World Bank.

Civil wars and confrontations between nations, mostly in Africa, have set back economic growth and reduced the incomes of more than a billion people, “driving up extreme poverty faster than anywhere else”, the Washington-based body said.

Continue reading...

People dying early of cancer costs UK economy £10.3bn a year, study finds

Posted on by

Cancer Research UK says this is more than any other health condition and 350,000 years of productivity are lost

People dying early of cancer costs the UK economy £10.3bn a year, more than any other health condition, a study has revealed.

That is the total cost of the 350,000 years of lost productivity recorded across Britain every year because adults have died prematurely of the disease, according to Cancer Research UK (CRUK).

Continue reading...

Iran-Israel ceasefire boosts markets risk appetite; UK inflation may ‘plateau’, warns Bank of England’s Greene – business live

Posted on by

Oil has fallen to its lowest level since June’s conflict began, while stock markets have jumped across Asia and Europe

Travel and leisure stocks across Europe are rallying too.

This has pushed up the STOXX Europe travel and leisure index by 4.1% in early trading, which Reuters reports it the biggest one-day jump since 10 April.

Continue reading...

Goldman Sachs warns Brent crude could rise over $100 per barrel if Strait of Hormuz is disrupted – business live

Posted on by

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news

The eurozone economy has continued to flirt with stagnation this month, with little growth in its key sectors.

The latest survey of purchasing managers across the euro area, just released by S&P Global, shows that the eurozone services sector is stalling this month, while factory growth slowed.

“The eurozone economy is struggling to gain momentum. For six months now, growth has been minimal, with activity in the service sector stagnating and manufacturing output rising only moderately.

In Germany, there are signs of a cautious improvement in the situation, but France continues to drag its feet. The momentum evident in the official growth figure of 0.6 percent for the first quarter is unlikely to have carried over into the second quarter, especially since special factors such as Ireland’s unusual jump in growth inflated this figure.

Continue reading...

UK borrowing rises to £17.7bn, adding to pressure on Rachel Reeves

Posted on by

May figure second highest for month on record amid fears chancellor is struggling to keep within spending rules

Higher tax receipts were unable to prevent a rise in public sector borrowing in May to £17.7bn, up from £17bn a year earlier and the second highest for the month on record.

A poll of City economists had forecast public sector net borrowing – the difference between public spending and income – would be £17.1bn.

Continue reading...

UK inflation eases slightly to 3.4% as food price rises offset transport cost falls

Posted on by

Annual rate slows in May from 3.5% in April despite record increase in chocolate prices

Inflation in the UK eased slightly to 3.4% last month as a steep fall in air fares and petrol prices was offset by a jump in the cost of food.

May’s decline in the consumer prices index (CPI), down from the official figure of 3.5% for April, complicates the Bank of England’s interest rates decision on Thursday, although policymakers are still almost certain to hold interest rates at 4.25%.

Continue reading...

Markets stabilise as investors fear ‘adverse shock’ from higher oil prices – business live

Posted on by

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news

Over at the Paris Air Show, a row has broken out after four Israeli company stands at the trade fair were shut down.

According to Reuters, French authorities ordered that the four stands should be closed for “displaying offensive weapons”, after not complying with an order from a French security agency to remove offensive or kinetic weapons from the stands.

“This outrageous and unprecedented decision reeks of policy-driven and commercial considerations.

“The French are hiding behind supposedly political considerations to exclude Israeli offensive weapons from an international exhibition - weapons that compete with French industries.”

Continue reading...

Trump’s ‘revenge tax’ could threaten foreign investment into US, analysts say

Posted on by

Concerns raised that section 899 could backfire and also undermine dollar’s safe haven status

Foreign investment into the US could be threatened by Donald Trump’s new “revenge” taxes, analysts have warned.

A provision within the president’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act will allow the US to apply higher taxes on foreign individuals, businesses and investors connected to jurisdictions that impose “unfair foreign taxes” on US individuals and companies.

Continue reading...

Daylight saving shapes how we spend, socialise and travel, NSW data reveals

Posted on by

Exclusive: As the shortest day of the year draws near, government study shows how earlier sunsets curb economic activity and public transport trips

Daylight saving and its delayed sunsets encourages people to stay out later and spend more money, New South Wales government data shows. The data also found more evening light attracts people to public transport and out of their cars.

Conversely, that uptick in mobility almost entirely vanishes in the days after clocks are wound back an hour, as earlier sunsets cut post-work social and economic activity, the data showed.

Sign up for Guardian Australia’s breaking news email

Continue reading...

Government sells final shares in NatWest 17 years after £45bn bailout

Posted on by

Sale ends state ownership of the banking group, then known as Royal Bank of Scotland, after 2008 rescue

The UK has sold its final shares in NatWest Group, ending 17 years of state ownership since the £45bn taxpayer bailout that saved the bank from collapse at the height of the 2008 financial crisis.

The full privatisation of NatWest is a symbolic moment for the banking group – formerly known as Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) – and draws a line under the most tumultuous chapter in its near 300-year history.

Continue reading...

Sidi Ould Tah named African Development Bank president

Posted on by

Mauritanian economist who led Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa will succeed Akinwunmi Adesina

The African Development Bank has chosen the Mauritanian economist Sidi Ould Tah as its president-elect after three rounds of voting on Thursday afternoon.

The election took place in Abidjan, Ivory Coast, at the end of the annual meeting of the continent’s biggest multilateral lender.

Continue reading...

Trump indicates ‘positive’ progress in US-EU trade talks

Posted on by

Wall Street up in early trading after US president commends bloc for calling to ‘quickly establish meeting dates’

Donald Trump has indicated there has been progress in US trade talks with the EU, helping send share prices rising on Wall Street, after he commended the bloc for calling to “quickly establish meeting dates”.

“I have just been informed that the EU has called to quickly establish meeting dates. This is a positive event, and I hope that they will,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform on Tuesday, saying the EU would be “very happy and successful” if it agreed a deal.

Continue reading...

Poorest 750 nations face ‘tidal wave’ of debt repayments to China in 2025, study warns

Posted on by

Vulnerable countries to pay record $22bn this year, mostly relating to loans issued under Xi Jinping’s belt and road initiative

The most vulnerable nations on Earth are facing a “tidal wave” of debt repayments as a Chinese lending boom starts to be called in, a new report has warned.

The analysis, published on Tuesday by Australian foreign policy thinktank the Lowy Institute, said that in 2025 the poorest 75 countries were on the hook for record high debt repayments US$22bn to China. The 75 nations’ debt formed the bulk of the total $35bn calculated by Lowy for 2025.

Continue reading...

EU hopes for quick deal to resolve US trade war after Trump delays 50% tariffs

Posted on by

European leaders call for ‘lowest possible’ border taxes after levies postponed from 1 June to 9 July

EU leaders have expressed hopes for a quick deal to resolve the trade war with the US after Donald Trump announced he was delaying his threatened 50% tariffs for the bloc until 9 July.

The US president said on Sunday he would pause the border tax due to be imposed on 1 June, which he had announced two days earlier, after what he called a “very nice call” with Ursula von der Leyen.

Continue reading...