The big question on Ukraine: is Trump ready to push Putin into peace? | Shaun Walker

Russian leader’s antagonism to Zelenskyy and lack of interest in a ceasefire leaves colossal task for US

On paper, everyone is in agreement: Donald Trump says he wants a ­ceasefire; Kyiv’s ­negotiating team has already agreed to a 30-day ceasefire ­proposal at marathon talks with the Americans in Jeddah; and Vladimir Putin says he accepts the idea, albeit with a few “nuances”.

But Putin’s so-called nuances are bigger than mere wrinkles, and at the end of an intense week of diplomacy around Russia’s war in Ukraine, a ceasefire – never mind a sustainable peace – still looks to be something of a distant prospect.

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‘I like Nigel Farage’: Runcorn and Helsby byelection could be big test for Starmer

Labour won the seat last year with more than 50% of votes – now polls suggest it will just hang on or lose to Reform UK

On a weekday morning, an advertising van is weaving its way through the narrow streets of Runcorn town centre. On the side is a black and white picture of Nigel Farage with a quote from the Reform UK leader: “We are going to have to move to an insurance-based system of healthcare.”

The starting gun has been fired in the byelection that has been on the horizon since the sitting MP Mike Amesbury announced his intention to resign, and which could prove a huge test for Keir Starmer’s government.

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Blockers, checkers, bats and chainsaws: don’t talk like Musk, Starmer is warned

PM has been urged to ‘get a grip’ on messaging after railing against the ‘flabby’ state and the civil service’s ‘tepid bath’

Keir Starmer has been warned against adopting the language of Elon Musk after railing against “blockers and checkers” and the “flabby” civil service this week.

Gus O’Donnell, the former cabinet secretary, was one of those urging the prime minister to “get a grip” on his messaging, telling the Institute for Government podcast: “My God, he has mishandled the communications on this terribly.”

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Reeves defends welfare cuts plan after report that over half of cabinet are unhappy – UK politics live

Chancellor says current welfare system ‘is not working for anyone’ after reports of unease within the Labour cabinet

Prisons in England and Wales are forecast to run out of space again in early 2026 as years of government efforts have failed to create the extra capacity needed, MPs have warned.

A report from the Commons public accounts committee out today says plans from 2021 to create 20,000 more prison places by the mid 2020s were “completely unrealistic” and thousands of outstanding spaces are expected to be delivered five years late for £4.2bn – 80% – more than planned.

As a result of poor planning and delays, the adult male prison estate was operating at 98.0% to 99.7% occupancy between October 2022 and August 2024 and remains alarmingly full.

Overcrowding is endemic, staff are overburdened, and access to services and purposeful activity is poor. The current prison system has had to focus on ensuring there are sufficient places to house prisoners. While the efforts of HMPPS [HM Prison and Probation Service] staff to avert disaster are admirable, this state of crisis undermines their efforts to rehabilitate prisoners and reduce reoffending.

Lives are being put at increasing risk by the government’s historic failures to increase capacity.

Despite the recent emergency release of thousands of prisoners, the system still faces total gridlock in a matter of months.

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Ed Davey calls on Keir Starmer to back Canada against Trump attacks

Lib Dem leader says PM should make public show of support for ally against ‘shocking attacks’ on its sovereignty

The leader of the UK’s Liberal Democrats has called on the prime minister to publicly support Canada and oppose the “shocking attacks” on Canadian sovereignty, as the Trump administration further escalates its global trade war against longstanding allies.

Ed Davey, who leads the third largest political party in the UK, has called on Keir Starmer to travel to Canada in a show of support to the nation’s new prime minister, Mark Carney, as the commonwealth nation faces a generational crisis under Trump’s tariff war and suggestions that the country might become the 51st US state.

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UK politics: Unison attacks ‘shambolic’ announcement of NHS England’s abolition – as it happened

Union says staff will have been left reeling after surprise news that body will be scrapped

Starmer is now talking about regulatation, and giving examples of where he thinks it has gone too far.

l give you an example. There’s a office conversion in Bingley, which, as you know, is in Yorkshire. That is an office conversion that will create 139 homes.

But now the future of that is uncertain because the regulator was not properly consulted on the power of cricket balls. That’s 139 homes. Now just think of the people, the families, the individuals who want those homes to buy, those homes to make their life and now they’re held up. Why? You’ll decide whether this is a good reason because I’m going to quote this is the reason ‘because the ball strike assessment doesn’t appear to be undertaken by a specialist, qualified consultant’. So that’s what’s holding up these 139 homes.

When we had those terrible riots … what we saw then, in response, was dynamic. It was strong, it was urgent. It was what I call active government, on the pitch, doing what was needed, acting.

But for many of us, I think the feeling is we don’t really have that everywhere all of the time at the moment.

The state employs more people than we’ve employed for decades, and yet look around the country; do you see good value everywhere? Because I don’t.

I actually think it’s weaker than it’s ever been, overstretched, unfocused, trying to do too much, doing it badly, unable to deliver the security that people need.

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Decision not to classify Southport killer as a terrorist was right, says UK watchdog

Review concluded extending definition to cover extreme violence by ‘loners’ such as Axel Rudakubana is unhelpful

The decision not to classify Axel Rudakubana as a terrorist following the Southport murders was right because it would be unhelpful to stretch the definition of terrorism to cover all extreme violence, the UK’s terror watchdog has concluded.

Jonathan Hall KC wrote that the “legal definition of terrorism is already wide and should not be changed any further” in his post-Southport review of how extreme violence is legally classified. Expanding the definition would “increase the possibility of inaccurate use and, in theory, abuse”, he said.

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Watchdog suggests alleged ‘two-tier’ sentencing guidelines may breach Equality Act – UK politics live

Lady Falkner, chair of the EHRC, says moves run the risk of positive discrimination

Here is the list of MPs down to ask a question.

PMQs is about to start.

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Art of a deal: how UK and France led dogged effort to repair US-Ukraine ties – for now

Over 11 days of breakneck diplomacy, Kyiv was convinced of need to pacify Trump, but reconciliation may be all too brief

The 11 days of whiplash-inducing talks British and French officials endured to repair shattered relations between Washington and Kyiv, and for the first time put Donald Trump’s trust in Vladimir Putin to the test, could go down as one of the great feats of diplomatic escapology.

The dogged fence-mending may yet unravel as hurdles remain, principally the outstanding question of Ukraine’s security guarantees, but for the first time, in the words of Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, the ball is in Russia’s court. Putin, by instinct cautious, has preferred watching from the sidelines, suppressing his delight as Trump denounced Volodymyr Zelenskyy to his face in the White House and wreaked subsequent vengeance by stopping all military aid and then pulling some US intelligence.

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Keir Starmer’s poll ratings leap after Trump withdraws support for Ukraine

Around 30% of voters say they prefer Labour for dealing with ‘allies against threats to the UK’ in boost to party leader

Keir Starmer’s approval ratings have shot up since Donald Trump returned to the White House and shocked Europe by withdrawing political and military support for Ukraine, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer.

Starmer’s Labour government as a whole has also gained public support for its response to the global turbulence caused by Trump’s return – on security and economic issues. His personal ratings have risen by 10% – albeit from an alarmingly low point – compared with a month ago.

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Trump suspending US intelligence sharing is ‘suffocating’ Ukraine’s hope, says Ben Wallace

Former UK defence secretary suggests Ukraine can still win the war if it continues holding off Russian forces

Ben Wallace, the former UK defence secretary, has said Donald Trump’s decision to suspend US intelligence sharing with Kyiv is “suffocating” Ukrainian hope of holding out against Russian aggression.

Last Friday, the US president, along with the vice-president, JD Vance, berated Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office in full view of the media, telling the Ukrainian president that he was “gambling with world war three” and to come back to the White House “when he is ready for peace”.

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Britain’s biggest unions call for much closer UK-EU ties amid ‘volatile’ global economy

Exclusive: union umbrella body calls for new cooperation agreement ahead of Keir Starmer’s reset talks with Brussels

The UK should forge much closer ties with Europe amid an increasingly “volatile and unpredictable” global economy, Britain’s biggest trade unions will argue as they push for new workers’ rights across the continent.

In its first major intervention on Europe in five years, the Trades Union Congress (TUC) will call for a “much-needed” closer relationship with the EU, in a joint statement with European counterparts.

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‘Don’t punish the vulnerable’: Labour MPs uneasy over planned welfare cuts

Ministers say ‘unsustainable’ rise in spending must be tackled but many backbenchers fear changes will not work

Dozens of backbench Labour MPs are unhappy with plans to cut billions from the rising welfare bill, with ministers holding meetings to convince them that the changes to disability benefits are necessary.

Labour MPs told the Guardian there were deep concerns within the parliamentary party that the changes would take money from the poorest, which was not what they had entered government to do.

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Starmer highlights UK’s war record in implicit rebuke to Vance as Lib Dems mock Badenoch for defending him – as it happened

Interventions follow US vice president’s comments about ‘20,000 troops from some random country that has not fought a war in 40 years’. This live blog is closed

In response to a question about intelligence cooperation with the US, Sir David Manning, a former ambassador to Washington, said he thought this would become “more difficult” because there was a problem of trust. He explained:

If you have some of Trump’s appointees in these key jobs who have very strange track records, and have said very strange things about Nato allies, the Nato alliance and so on, and you have people in the administration who seem to be, let’s say, looking for ways of appeasing Russia, then you have a problem on the intelligence front, because these are not the values that we have.

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Starmer welcomes Zelenskyy’s offer to work with Trump on Ukraine peace deal – as it happened

PM says any deal must be ‘lasting and secure’ following fiery Trump-Zelenskyy meeting last week and UK weekend summit. This live blog is closed

Lisa O’Carroll is the Guardian’s acting Ireland correspondent.

Michelle O’Neill, Northern Ireland’s first minister, has described a decision to build thousands of lightweight missiles for Ukraine in a Belfast factory as “incredulous”.

I find it really incredulous that at a time when public services are being cut left, right and centre.

At a time when we have endured 14 years of austerity ... I think at a time like that, rather than buying weapons of war, I would rather see the money invested in public services.

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Britain is back: did Ukraine crisis talks create a post-Brexit turning point?

Keir Starmer won praise for taking the UK ‘back to the heart of Europe’ at the weekend, but will it be a long-term move?

Britain is back. That was the concise verdict of Eléonore Caroit, the vice-chair of the French national assembly’s foreign affairs committee. And the optics of Sunday’s crisis talks on Ukraine bore this out, with Keir Starmer at the very centre of the leaders’ joint photo.

“You are back on the scene, of the leadership in Europe,” Caroit told the BBC on Monday morning. James MacClearly, the Liberal Democrat MP who speaks for the party on Europe, was equally adamant, praising the prime minister for taking this chance “to bring us back to the heart of Europe where we belong”.

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Trump commitment to peace in Ukraine sincere, Starmer says, but minerals deal not enough to provide US security guarantee – live

Prime minister says UK must strengthen relationship with US for security

As Jakub Krupa and Martin Belam report on our Europe live blog, Emmanuel Macron, the French president, is floating proposals for a month-long ceasefire in Ukraine covering air, sea and attacks on critical infrastructure.

In interviews this morning, Luke Pollard, the defence minister, played down reports that this is a plan that Britain is formally backing. Asked about French government claims to this effect, he replied:

No agreement has been made on what a truce looks like, and so I don’t recognise the precise part you mentioned there. But we are working together with France and our European allies to look at what is the path to how … we create a lasting and durable peace in Ukraine.

You wouldn’t expect me to get into the details of what that plan looks like, because at the moment, the only person that would benefit from those details being put in the public domain before any plan is agreed would be President Putin.

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Europe has a lot to do before it can exert real influence on a Ukraine peace deal

The continent’s role in any ceasefire will be limited unless countries commit more to Kiev and the Zelenskyy-Trump relationship is repaired

Europe and the UK are hoping they are on the brink of assembling a credible military coalition that Donald Trump can only refuse to support at risk of appearing openly to ally with Vladimir Putin – an alliance many grassroots Republicans reject.

The plan is a long shot since it requires enough countries inside Nato to offer practical support to such a coalition of the willing, and also needs Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian president, to patch up his relations with Donald Trump following Friday’s Oval Office meeting.

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UK and France will work on own Ukraine peace plan, says Keir Starmer

PM says he and Macron have agreed to begin talks as Europe scrambles to respond to White House disaster

Britain and France will work on their own peace plan for Ukraine, Keir Starmer has said, as European leaders scrambled to respond to Friday’s disastrous White House meeting between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

The prime minister told the BBC on Sunday that he and the French president, Emmanuel Macron, had agreed to begin negotiations separate to those between the US and Russia, after a series of hurried phone calls on Saturday evening.

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Starmer hosts Zelenskyy for ‘meaningful and warm’ talks

Ukraine leader embraced in No 10 and given £2.26bn defence loan one day after his White House dressing down

Keir Starmer has described his meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy as “meaningful and warm”, according to Downing Street.

The British prime minister met the Ukrainian president on Saturday evening, just 24 hours after Zelenskyy’s meeting with the US president, Donald Trump, and vice-president, JD Vance, in Washington.

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