Burnham brings emotional connection and optimism in vibe shift from Starmer

Labour MPs value Burnham’s warmth as a communicator but they know that will not be enough on its own

When Keir Starmer welcomed Mark Rutte, the Nato secretary general, outside No 10 on Monday, the attire fitted the moment: dark formal suits, polished leather shoes. Almost 200 miles to the north, when Andy Burnham strode into the engine hall of the People’s History Museum in Manchester, the vibe could not have been more different.

Dressed in his trademark dark T-shirt and jacket, Burnham could just as easily have been walking down the street outside. He even began with a joke about his thigh-skimming running shorts, after he was pictured going for a jog the morning after announcing his return to parliament, telling the assembled audience he had bought a new pair as it was “either do that or change the decency laws”.

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Home secretary restricts minister’s access to documents as she calls for his sacking

Row between Shabana Mahmood and Mike Tapp broke out after he wrote unauthorised article about migration

The migration minister, Mike Tapp, is to be denied access to sensitive documents and meetings without approval from the home secretary, as she called for the prime minister to sack him.

Shabana Mahmood has demanded that Tapp be fired for writing an unauthorised article in the Times calling for overseas care workers to be exempt from changes to the immigration rules.

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Darren Jones says bond markets should be ‘content’ with Burnham’s economic plans – UK politics live

Chief secretary to PM rules out leadership bid as he says he has received reassurances from Burnham

London, Oldham, Bradford and Keighley are to be the first towns and cities investigated by the grooming gangs inquiry, the Press Association reports. PA says:

The £65m probe is investigating how grooming gangs operated and how police, councils, health services, social care services and schools responded.

The announcement confirmed which areas will first face so-called local investigations – where serious failures have been identified in response to child sexual exploitation by grooming gangs.

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Keir Starmer tells cabinet he wants to ‘resolve difficult issues’ before leaving No 10 – UK politics live

Prime minister gives fresh indication of his intention to finalise and publish defence investment plan before leaving office

Peter Walker is a senior Guardian political correspondent.

The Liberal Democrats are marking the tenth anniversary of Brexit by enjoying their favourite pursuit – being rude about Nigel Farage.

Nigel Farage pocketed a £5m “reward” for the damage he’s caused, while the rest of us are paying for it dearly. When he promised we would be better off, he clearly only meant himself. We are taking over billboards across the UK today to say enough is enough.

Key to a serious Jones run seems to what he makes of Burnham’s economic policies in the coming days - including public control of utilities. And whether Ed Miliband ends up as chancellor.

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European leaders pay tribute to Starmer as EU-UK summit is postponed

Ursula von der Leyen, Friedrich Merz and Volodymyr Zelenskyy say British PM helped increase security

European leaders have paid tribute to Keir Starmer after he announced his resignation as the British prime minister, triggering the postponement of an upcoming EU-UK summit.

The European Council president, António Costa, said: “For sure we need to postpone it, but we are reassessing the opportunity to hold this new summit …

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Keir Starmer expected to announce resignation timetable, paving way for Burnham premiership – UK politics live

It’s still unclear whether there will be a leadership contest or an uncontested handover of power

All the national newspapers are splashing on the fate of Keir Starmer. The BBC has a summary including pictures of all the front pages. Two papers, the Times and the Daily Telegraph, have headlines saying Burnham wants to be PM by September.

Alex Burghart, the shadow Cabinet Office minister, was on the Today programme this morning putting the Conservative party’s case on Keir Starmer being replaced. He said having a new PM would not make much difference because the government’s problems were down to the views of Labour MPs. He said:

Constitutionally there doesn’t have to be a general election, you can change prime ministers. What matters is whether the prime minister has the support of MPs in parliament.

But I have to say that there, it’s not just Keir Starmer’s legitimacy that is being called into question, it’s Labour’s.

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Monday briefing: What’s next for no-drama Starmer as his ‘political challenges’ pile up?

In today’s newsletter: Our senior political correspondent talks about how the coming days and weeks may unfold for the Labour government, and how Keir Starmer ended up the most unpopular prime minister in memory

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Good morning. Today’s the day, probably. Keir Starmer is expected to announce that he will step down as prime minister, after overwhelming pressure from Labour MPs to make way for Andy Burnham to become party leader.

This follows the Manchester mayor’s emphatic victory in last Thursday’s Makerfield byelection, where he leveraged his popularity and the prevailing anti-Starmer mood to secure more votes than Reform and Restore combined, cementing his credentials as the man who can take on the hard right in the next general election.

Middle East | High-stakes talks between the US and Iran are expected to continue for the rest of the week in Switzerland, after a tense start that saw Iranian negotiators walk out in protest at a stream of threats issued by Donald Trump on social media.

Edinburgh | Police Scotland said a man was charged after a series of attacks in Edinburgh on Friday night that are being treated as potential anti-Muslim hate crimes. Counter-terrorism officers were brought in to investigate the attacks in which five people were injured.

UK weather | The Met Office forecasts that extremely high temperatures could last from Monday until Thursday, leading to health concerns for elderly and vulnerable people.

UK news | Police have named the driver killed in the Bedford train crash on Friday, as his family said they “are devastated by his loss”.

Prisons | Pet ferrets kept as therapy animals at the UK’s largest children’s prison have been co-opted by managers to kill rats, resulting in a bloody incident and concerns over child and animal welfare.

Tuesday | This day marks the 10 years since the UK voted to leave the EU. A Guardian report analysing the complex legacy of Brexit through boats, bankers and borders is a good place to consider the legacy of leaving the EU.

Tuesday | Also this day, Peter Murrell, the ex-chief executive of the SNP, is likely to be sentenced to prison custody after pleading guilty to embezzling more than £400,000 from the party.

Wednesday | Donna Ockenden will publish her review of Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, Britain’s biggest maternity care scandal.

Friday | Kings Charles will become the first head of state to reveal their personal tax bill, and will release other financial reports for the royal household.

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Starmer expected to announce exit plan to clear way for Burnham to become PM

Ministers say Starmer will set out his intentions on Monday morning with an autumn departure the most likely option

Keir Starmer is expected to announce a timetable for his departure on Monday morning, clearing the way for Andy Burnham to become prime minister without a formal contest by the autumn.

Cabinet ministers say Starmer will set out his intentions outside No 10 Downing Street, starting a process of the UK installing its seventh prime minister in a decade.

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Transition timetable: what a Starmer autumn handover could look like

New leader could be chosen unchallenged or after a quick contest while outgoing PM has time to finalise his legacy

If the predictions are proved correct and Keir Starmer does announce a timetable for an autumn departure from Downing Street, the machinery of government will again kick into gear for a handover of power – but one that will be, by UK standards, relatively leisurely.

While many democracies build in lengthy transition periods – a defeated or retiring US president serves for nearly three months after their successor has been picked – the UK tends to do things at speed. A losing prime minister will typically get out of 10 Downing Street the morning after an election while the removal vans of their replacements lurk idling around the corner.

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Reform UK gloomy about prospects in Makerfield, as one party source says Labour ahead by 2,500 votes – UK politics live

Result expected around 3am as Labour’s Greater Manchester mayor hopes a win over Reform UK will help force the prime minister to step aside

David Blunkett, the former Labour cabinet minister, has suggested that Keir Starmer should stand down after the Makerfield byelection.

In an interview on the BBC’s Newsnight, Blunkett suggested that Starmer standing aside would be the best option for the party regardless of whether Andy Burnham wins tonight or loses.

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Burnham brings in top economists before possible leadership run

Labour mayor giving advisory roles to ex-Bank of England economist and others seen as attempt to reassure markets

Three economic heavyweights have been brought in to advise Andy Burnham as he attempts to reassure the markets before his possible return to parliament on Friday and challenge to Keir Starmer.

Burnham is understood to be getting advice from Andy Haldane, a former Bank of England chief economist, as well as Richard Hughes, a former chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility and Jim O’Neill, a crossbench peer and former Treasury minister who worked on George Osborne’s “Northern Powerhouse”.

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Labour MP pushes Burnham to launch leadership bid ‘really quickly’ after Makerfield byelection result – UK politics live

Rachael Maskell said she hoped Andy Burnham could become prime minister before the Labour party conference in September

Andy Burnham may have trouble getting through to Keir Starmer if he tries ringing him after the Makerfield byelection to urge him to set a timetable for his departure. Burnham reportedly wants to call Starmer this weekend. (See 9.47am.) But, in his interview with Sky News, Starmer said: “I’m sure I’ll talk to Andy after the weekend.”

If Starmer declines to take Burnham’s call, he may be following Ed Miliband’s example. In a Times story today, Patrick Maguire and Steven Swinford report:

Sir Keir Starmer’s relationship with Ed Miliband has broken down to such an extent that the energy secretary has been accused of “ghosting” the prime minister in recent weeks.

Senior government sources claimed that Miliband declined to take calls from the prime minister during a tense stand-off over defence spending.

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UK defence spending plan ‘well short of what’s required’ and harder choices needed, says John Healey – as it happened

Ex-defence secretary John Healey and ex-defence minister Al Carns have given resignation statements to MPs

Speaking to reporters at the G7, Keir Starmer also defended the defence investment plan (DIP) draft that led to John Healey’s resignation as defence secretary last week. Starmer confirmed that Dan Jarvis, the new defence secretary, is getting some input before the publication of the DIP in its final version.

Starmer said:

The position on investment in defence is firstly that we increased last year defence spending from 2.3% to 2.6%, that’s the biggest increase since the 1980s, and that means £270bn will be spent this parliament on defence.

On top of that [the] defence investment plan which obviously gives us capability for the future. We will put even more money in relation to that. I’ve been really clear that’s required difficult decisions, I have taken the decision to reallocate money from other departments.

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Tuesday briefing: How the UK’s military spending row exposes Starmer’s defence dilemma

In today’s newsletter: An argument about money has also spotlighted questions about Britain’s place in the world and the changing face of warfare

Good morning. What conflict has raged longer than the hundred years war? The fight between the Ministry of Defence and the Treasury over defence spending.

I’d love to claim this as my own, but avoid patter theft this early in the day. So I’ll credit my colleague Dan Sabbagh, the Guardian’s defence and security editor, who spoke to me ahead of this week’s G7 meeting, in France, where Keir Starmer arrived yesterday for what could be his final international summit. The prime minister can anticipate candid discussions about international partnerships in conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, both of which may soon demand increased involvement from the British military.

Middle East | Donald Trump has declared that the strait of Hormuz will be “completely open” from Friday, as western leaders gathering at the G7 summit in Évian-les-Bains battled to prevent the fragile US deal with Iran from almost immediately unravelling.

UK politics | Political hatred and division in the UK is probably worse now than during the Brexit referendum, when Jo Cox was murdered, says Kim Leadbeater, Cox’s sister who is now also a Labour MP.

Crime | A schoolteacher described as a “serial manipulator and a serial liar” has been found guilty of sexually abusing and murdering a baby he and his partner had adopted.

Environment | Half of the world’s children are exposed to at least three overlapping climate hazards threatening their health, education and survival, according to a Unicef report.

US news | Eight people are presumed dead after a B-52 bomber crashed shortly after takeoff on Monday morning at a US air force base in California’s Mojave Desert, officials said.

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‘Unbelievable’ waste and inefficiency at MoD, says ex-defence minister Al Carns

Exclusive: Carns, who quit last week, says he was angered by unwillingness to confront sunk costs of legacy programmes

There is “unbelievable” waste and inefficiency at the Ministry of Defence (MoD), the former armed forces minister Al Carns has said, adding that every time he would “turn a stone over” he would get another shock.

Carns said that during his time as a defence minister he had been angered by the unwillingness to confront the sunk costs of legacy programmes – and suggested mismanaged programmes such as tanks investment should be scrapped in favour of new technology.

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Technology secretary says she wants regulator to design plans for online age verification by October – as it happened

Liz Kendall also wants Ofcom to report to parliament every year on how effectively social media firms are keeping under-16s off their platforms

Starmer acknowledges some teenagers will get round these restrictons. But that does not make the rules pointless, he says.

Will it mean that no child ever looks at social media again? No.

But look, this might shock you, but it doesn’t shock parents of teenagers; they get around other laws too.

Some technology companies want us to think that social media is unchangeable, part of an almost natural order.

But we have to resist that kind of learned helplessness. We have agency, we can change it, and we will.

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UK poised to water down 2030 EV sales targets after industry and union pressure

Keir Starmer ready to overrule Ed Miliband after warnings that manufacturers would be penalised and jobs put at risk

The UK government is poised to water down its 2030 targets for electric vehicle sales after intense lobbying by the car industry and unions.

The government is preparing to consult on less ambitious targets for the transition to fully battery-powered electric cars over the rest of the decade after carmakers and unions warned that they would penalise manufacturers and put jobs at risk.

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Starmer defends investment on defence as he vows to fight any leadership challenge – UK politics live

The prime minister defended the ‘hard-edged decisions’ he has made to cut funding from other departments to spend more on defence

As armed forces minister, Al Carns was not involved in work on the defence investment plan (Dip). In his resignation letter, he said it was flawed not just because of the amount of funding involved; he also claimed it focused too much on the wrong capability. He said (and I’ve highlighted the key phrases in bold):

The character of conflict is changing faster than our procurement can keep up with. We are still purchasing capability suitable for the last war while our adversaries arm for the next one. Platforms that cost billions can be defeated by systems that cost thousands. Any serious defence investment plan has to start from that reality.

While I had no hand in the defence investment plan, that distance does allow me to say plainly that it is not built for the threat we face.

I want to see a higher percentage for uncrewed systems, AI, data – data is the new gunpowder – and we’ve got to move that forward if we are going to win the next war.

Too many working people in this country feel insecure even when they are doing everything right. They work hard, contribute, pay their taxes and still feel one setback away from trouble. Public confidence in our institutions is weakening and politics increasingly looks performative while everyday life gets harder.

The machinery of government itself has been left to decay. Decisions that should take days, take months. Departments fight each other instead of the problem. Officials and ministers who know the truth are not always rewarded for telling it. We are trying to govern a more dangerous world with processes designed for a calmer one, and the gap is now showing in the things that matter most.

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‘I’m not walking away,’ says Starmer despite defence secretary’s exit

PM promises to fight any leadership challenge, saying any successor would face same problems as him

Keir Starmer has said he knows he has to “turn things around” after a series of crises culminating in the resignation of John Healey, the defence secretary, but warned that any successor would face the same difficult decisions.

In an interview with the BBC after Healey’s departure in a row over defence spending, Starmer promised again to fight any leadership challenge from Andy Burnham or others, saying: “I’m not going to walk away.”

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Pro-Palestine activists believe ‘sea change’ coming in Labour’s approach to Middle East

Green surge in local elections and recent polling of Labour members may cause government to toughen stance on Israel

Pro-Palestine activists believe there could be a “sea change” in the Labour party’s approach to the crisis in the Middle East which could result in the government taking a tougher stance on Israel.

Campaigners have pointed to the threat posed to Labour by the Green surge in the local elections, the likely departure of Keir Starmer from No 10, and new polling which shows an appetite among Labour members for a ban on all arms shipments to Israel.

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