Reform UK’s victories are just the latest chapter of political fragmentation

Farage’s party has benefited this time as voters flee the main parties, but there are faultlines within its own coalition too

Fragmentation in British politics is not new. Disillusionment with the choices on offer is not new. The two-party share of the vote has been below 70% in four of the last six elections. Six months before the 2019 general election the Brexit party topped the EU election results with the Liberal Democrats in second. The 2024 general election had the lowest two-party share in the modern-party system.

What is driving this change? Political scientists talk about the demand and supply sides of electoral politics. The voters are the demand side, what types of parties and positions they want to vote for. They do not always get their wish. Who appears on the ballot paper is the supply side of the electoral equation. Increasingly, it is everyone.

Professor Paula Surridge is deputy director at UK in a Changing Europe and professor of political sociology at the University of Bristol

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Farage has declared a new dawn before, but this time things could really be different

Slicker presentation, a shift away from two-party politics and now hundreds of new councillors mean Reform is likely here to stay

In May 2014, Nigel Farage stood in front of the television cameras and declared his party’s victory in the European elections was “about the most extraordinary result that has been seen in British politics for 100 years”.

A year later, the Conservatives won an unexpected majority at the general election, restricting Ukip to just a single seat, with Farage failing in his attempt to win South Thanet.

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Is Nigel Farage’s quest to rid Reform of ‘amateurism’ paying off?

Runcorn win was much bigger than polls implied, suggesting overall effectiveness of ground campaign

For the last few months, Nigel Farage has been promising to professionalise his Reform UK party, saying its general election result of five seats had been hampered by the party’s “amateurism”.

Friday’s narrow victory in the Runcorn and Helsby byelection suggests his strategy is starting to bear fruit. Not only did the party win a seat in which it came a distant third less than a year ago, but it did so with a much bigger swing than implied by the national polls – demonstrating the effectiveness of the party’s ground campaign.

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Reform UK challenged to give details on donations after £2m mailshot campaign

Exclusive: Liberal Democrats say voters need to know sources of funding for Nigel Farage’s party before local elections

The Liberal Democrats have publicly challenged Nigel Farage to give details of his party’s donations after calculating that Reform UK spent more than £2m on personalised letters to postal voters before the local elections.

In a letter to Farage, Daisy Cooper, the Lib Dem deputy leader, said people needed to know the source of the money before Thursday’s elections, given that Reform received only £281,000 in donations in the last set of publicly available figures, for the final quarter of 2024.

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‘Tories are not listening’: Ed Davey sure Lib Dems can woo more disgruntled voters

Leader hopes local elections in many traditionally Conservative areas will help party build on recent success

Days before the local elections, with Kemi Badenoch demanding apologies over gender identity and Nigel Farage complaining about mental illness diagnoses, Ed Davey was quietly getting on with what he perhaps does best: having fun.

In a converted shed near Stratford-upon-Avon, the Liberal Democrat leader was joking with photographers as he made chocolate truffles alongside Manuela Perteghella, his party’s MP for the formerly true-blue constituency.

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For political parties judging this year’s local election results it’s all about the baseline

The polls will be first electoral test for Labour government, while Reform is standing candidates in almost every contest

It’s all about the bass – well at least the baseline. With all political parties likely to win in some places it can be hard to judge what a good night looks like for any party when it comes to local elections.

One way to judge this is to compare with how parties did the last time these contests took place: the baseline. For the seats up for election next week that was 2021 – though many of the places that voted then will not be doing so in 2025. Those elections included places where elections were held over from 2020 because of Covid restrictions; these seats returned to their normal schedule last year.

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For political parties judging this year’s local election results it’s all about the baseline

The polls will be first electoral test for Labour government, while Reform is standing candidates in almost every contest

It’s all about the bass – well at least the baseline. With all political parties likely to win in some places it can be hard to judge what a good night looks like for any party when it comes to local elections.

One way to judge this is to compare with how parties did the last time these contests took place: the baseline. For the seats up for election next week that was 2021 – though many of the places that voted then will not be doing so in 2025. Those elections included places where elections were held over from 2020 because of Covid restrictions; these seats returned to their normal schedule last year.

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Badenoch declines to criticise Jenrick over Reform coalition comments – as it happened

Spokesperson for Tory leader says she agrees with colleague that ‘we need to bring centre-right voters together’. This blog is closed

Rosie Duffield, the independent MP who left Labour after the election in part because she felt her gender critical views made her unwelcome in the party (although her resignation letter focused on welfare issues), has claimed that Keir Starmer no longer arguing a trans woman is a woman shows he is a “manager rather than a leader”.

Speaking on LBC, Duffield said:

It’s just another sign of the prime minister’s lack of leadership skills. I’m bound to say that, he’s a manager rather than a leader. He responds and reacts rather than leads from the front, and this is what we’re seeing again from him.

Nigel Farage is peddling a dangerous fantasy by claiming the UK can be self-sufficient in gas.

After sixty years of drilling, the truth is the UK has already burned most of its gas. That’s down to geology, not politics, and no amount of hot air from Farage will change that.

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UK MP refused entry to Hong Kong accuses China of ‘hidden blacklist’

Wera Hobhouse says her apparent presence on secret list of critics of country’s human rights record made her a target

A Liberal Democrat MP refused entry to Hong Kong to see her young grandson has said her experience should be “a wake-up call for any parliamentarian”, given that it seems to show China holds a secret list of banned politicians.

Wera Hobhouse, who was turned back by officials on Thursday, said she was given no explanation as to why this happened, and could only assume that it was because she had spoken out about rights abuses by China.

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GDP growth an ‘encouraging sign but we are not complacent’, says Reeves – UK politics live

Chancellor says government ‘will remain pragmatic and cool-headed’ while seeking US trade deal

The care minister has defended the government’s cautious response to developments in global trade after the sweeping imposition of tariffs by the US administration in Washington.

Stephen Kinnock said “If we were to just jump in one direction or the other every time there’s a new development, we would be jumping around all over the place. I don’t think that that’s going to be in the interest of our economy or of our national security or of our business community.”

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Starmer rejects claim there are ‘strong arguments’ for suspending fiscal rules amid US tariffs – UK politics live

The PM doubled down on his insistence the government won’t change its fiscal rules, describing them as ‘ironclad’ and ‘non-negotiable’

One person probably more enthusiastic than most about the prospect of Universal opening a theme park in the UK is the Lib Dem leader Ed Davey. He is a great fan of outdoor activity-related photocalls, and he’s been at it again today, and the Gloucester Ski and Snowboarding Centre in Matson, Gloucestershire.

Almost 40 MPs and peers have signed a letter organised by Jeremy Corbyn calling for an independent inquiry into the government’s role in the war in Gaza.

Many people believe the government has taken decisions that have implicated officials in the gravest breaches of international law.

These charges will not go away until there is a comprehensive, public, independent inquiry with the legal power to establish the truth.

Last month, I wrote to the Prime Minister calling for an independent inquiry into the UK’s involvement in Israel’s assault on Gaza.

Today, more than 30 MPs have supported that call.

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Keir Starmer urged to get tough with Trump as US tariff threat looms

PM told to be as robust as Canada with the US president as the UK stages last-ditch talks to strike trade deal

Keir Starmer should fight back strongly against Donald Trump if he imposes punitive tariffs on British exports, senior UK and EU diplomats said on Saturday night, amid heightened fears that the US president could trigger a global trade war with devastating effects on the UK economy.

British government officials in London and Washington are working frantically this weekend to try to persuade Trump not to slap duties on more key UK industries on what he is calling “liberation day” on Wednesday. The US president has already announced plans for 25% levies on imports of cars, steel and aluminium to the US.

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Starmer is warned against ‘appeasing’ Trump with tax cut for US tech firms

Labour MP and Lib Dem leader express concern social media companies could be let off hook just as benefits are cut

Keir Starmer has been warned against “appeasing” Donald Trump as he considers reducing a major tax for US tech companies while cutting disability benefits and public sector jobs.

His chancellor, Rachel Reeves, confirmed on Sunday that there were “ongoing” discussions about the UK’s £1bn-a-year digital services tax that affects companies including Meta and Amazon.

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Watchdog suggests alleged ‘two-tier’ sentencing guidelines may breach Equality Act – UK politics live

Lady Falkner, chair of the EHRC, says moves run the risk of positive discrimination

Here is the list of MPs down to ask a question.

PMQs is about to start.

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Starmer facing Reform UK byelection challenge as Mike Amesbury quits as MP after assault conviction – UK politics live

Contest in Runcorn and Helsby will be a challenge for Labour

Around 80 Labour MPs could refuse to back government plans to cut billions from the welfare budget, Amy Gibbons and Tony Diver claim in a story for the Daily Telegraph. They report:

The Telegraph understands that around 80 Labour MPs – roughly a fifth of the parliamentary party – “won’t tolerate” billions of pounds of welfare cuts set to be announced by the Chancellor later this month.

The anger is said to have spread beyond the “usual suspects”, with MPs who would not typically criticise Sir Keir threatening to “give the government a slap” over the proposals.

Our Labour values are built on a simple but powerful idea: that every individual, regardless of background or circumstance, should have the support they need to make the most of their lives. Everyone who is capable of working deserves the security, dignity and agency that employment offers. Of course, there are some people who are not able to work and they must be treated with compassion and respect. But for those that can, we must restore the pathways to opportunity which are currently so sparse for millions of people. It is exactly what a Labour government exists to do …

As MPs, we understand that delivering this new social contract requires hard choices to be made. We welcome the work that has begun to rebuild our welfare system, and we are fully supportive of it. We believe reforming our broken system is not only necessary, but also a truly progressive endeavour. And so we have established the Get Britain Working Group to make that argument, insistently.

The radical package of reforms will see:

-£5bn in savings by making it harder to qualify for Personal Independence Payments - a benefit not linked to work that is meant to help people with the additional costs of their disability

This government is determined that instead of facing a life on benefits … we stretch every sinew and pull every lever to ensure that we can get those people into work, because that is the best way for them to have a successful and happy life into the future.

So I think it’s quite right to look at a benefit system which is clearly broken.

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Starmer highlights UK’s war record in implicit rebuke to Vance as Lib Dems mock Badenoch for defending him – as it happened

Interventions follow US vice president’s comments about ‘20,000 troops from some random country that has not fought a war in 40 years’. This live blog is closed

In response to a question about intelligence cooperation with the US, Sir David Manning, a former ambassador to Washington, said he thought this would become “more difficult” because there was a problem of trust. He explained:

If you have some of Trump’s appointees in these key jobs who have very strange track records, and have said very strange things about Nato allies, the Nato alliance and so on, and you have people in the administration who seem to be, let’s say, looking for ways of appeasing Russia, then you have a problem on the intelligence front, because these are not the values that we have.

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Starmer welcomes Zelenskyy’s offer to work with Trump on Ukraine peace deal – as it happened

PM says any deal must be ‘lasting and secure’ following fiery Trump-Zelenskyy meeting last week and UK weekend summit. This live blog is closed

Lisa O’Carroll is the Guardian’s acting Ireland correspondent.

Michelle O’Neill, Northern Ireland’s first minister, has described a decision to build thousands of lightweight missiles for Ukraine in a Belfast factory as “incredulous”.

I find it really incredulous that at a time when public services are being cut left, right and centre.

At a time when we have endured 14 years of austerity ... I think at a time like that, rather than buying weapons of war, I would rather see the money invested in public services.

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Trump commitment to peace in Ukraine sincere, Starmer says, but minerals deal not enough to provide US security guarantee – live

Prime minister says UK must strengthen relationship with US for security

As Jakub Krupa and Martin Belam report on our Europe live blog, Emmanuel Macron, the French president, is floating proposals for a month-long ceasefire in Ukraine covering air, sea and attacks on critical infrastructure.

In interviews this morning, Luke Pollard, the defence minister, played down reports that this is a plan that Britain is formally backing. Asked about French government claims to this effect, he replied:

No agreement has been made on what a truce looks like, and so I don’t recognise the precise part you mentioned there. But we are working together with France and our European allies to look at what is the path to how … we create a lasting and durable peace in Ukraine.

You wouldn’t expect me to get into the details of what that plan looks like, because at the moment, the only person that would benefit from those details being put in the public domain before any plan is agreed would be President Putin.

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Tories compare Nigel Farage to Jeremy Corbyn over Ukraine war

Reform leader accused of ‘equivocating over Russia’s illegal war’ after criticising Volodymyr Zelenskyy

The Conservatives have compared Nigel Farage to Jeremy Corbyn after the Reform UK leader said Volodymyr Zelenskyy had been “rude” to Donald Trump, as well as criticising the Ukrainian president for not wearing a suit to the Oval Office.

The Liberal Democrats accused Farage of parroting White House talking points after Farage denied that Elon Musk and Steve Bannon had given Nazi salutes, saying their gestures were “out to the side and not in front”.

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‘Starmer’s big moment’: can PM persuade Trump not to give in to Putin?

The UK leader has been advised to choose his words carefully at this week’s crucial White House meeting

Keir Starmer lays down Ukraine peace demand ahead of Trump talks

When Keir Starmer is advised on how to handle his crucial meeting with Donald Trump at the White House on Thursday, he will be told by advisers from Downing Street and the Foreign Office to be very clear on his main points and, above all, to be brief.

“Trump gets bored very easily,” said one well-placed Whitehall source with knowledge of the president’s attention span. “When he loses interest and thinks someone is being boring, he just tunes out. He doesn’t like [the French president, Emmanuel] Macron partly because Macron talks too much and tries to lecture him.”

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