Who was behind poll predicting Tory wipeout – and what do they want?

Nobody seems to know mystery organisation that funded YouGov survey but its agenda is clear

At the centre of this week’s mega-poll that projected an election wipeout for the Conservatives there lurked both a mystery and a statement of the obvious. Who was behind it? No one seemed to know. But what do they want? Seemingly, a change from Rishi Sunak.

It is a sign of Sunak’s plight that the poll – fronted by a Tory peer and explicitly framed as showing the prime minister’s policies are leading the party into doom – was not even the greatest act of disloyalty in a week when 60 backbenchers voted to amend his flagship migration policy.

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Grant Shapps dismisses significance of Tory-backed poll suggesting Labour on course for landslide election win – UK politics live

Defence secretary dismisses poll, saying things will change by time general election takes place

And here is some more comment on the YouGov poll on X from experts and commentators.

From Will Jennings, an academic and psephologist

At last, details of the @YouGov MRP. Bad for the Conservatives (unsurprisingly), but this is curious to say the least: “In constituencies across England and Wales, the Labour vote is up by an average of just four per cent compared to 2019”.

These results are actually *way better* for the government than the most recent standard YouGov poll, which would produce a 334 seat Labour majority according to Electoral Calculus. So something quite peculiar is going on...

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Brexit has completely failed for UK, say clear majority of Britons – poll

Only one in 10 feel leaving the EU has helped their finances, while just 9% say it has benefited the NHS, despite £350m a week pledge according to new poll

A clear majority of the British public now believes Brexit has been bad for the UK economy, has driven up prices in shops, and has hampered government attempts to control immigration, according to a poll by Opinium to mark the third anniversary of the UK leaving the EU single market and customs union.

The survey of more than 2,000 UK voters also finds strikingly low numbers of people who believe that Brexit has benefited them or the country.

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Labour lead slips to 13 points in poll that shows NHS is voters’ main priority

Sunak’s approval increases slightly after surviving potential rebellion over Rwanda bill

Labour’s lead over the Conservatives is now at 13 points, the lowest since before the party conferences, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer.

Both Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak’s approval ratings have stayed steady since they both saw a big hit to their ratings last week. Starmer’s net approval is now -9, while Sunak’s net approval is now -29, a 3-point increase from a week ago.

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Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer clash over homelessness and the UK economy at PMQs – as it happened

The prime minister faced PMQs for the final time before the Christmas recess

Rishi Sunak is about to take PMQs. It will be the last of 2023.

Here is the list of MPs down to ask a question.

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Why the Tories’ hardline immigration policies won’t win over UK voters

Visa changes may cut numbers of students and skilled workers who enjoy public support while Rwanda plan won’t address concerns over small boats

‘If you don’t fix immigration, immigration will fix you.” This was new foreign secretary David Cameron’s stern warning to US senators, but it could equally have been addressed to parliamentary colleagues back home.

Last week saw the latest in a series of immigration reform packages, yet nearly a year on from Rishi Sunak’s pledge to “stop the boats” his government seems no closer to a fix which satisfies his party or its supporters.

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Younger Britons are more pro-EU but ‘fixing’ Brexit not their priority

Ursula von der Leyen hopes young people can drive a rapprochement but polls show they have other things on their minds

“We goofed it up, you have to fix it,” the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, said on Tuesday in a message to the younger generation about Brexit.

Fixing it would be “the direction of travel” with regard to the UK rejoining the EU, she told an audience in Brussels. But as the fourth anniversary of Brexit approaches, is it likely that Britain’s millennials and generation Z will demand a rapprochement?

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No bounce for the Tories after tax-cutting budget, poll shows

Opinium poll for the Observer reveals the public is unimpressed with Jeremy Hunt’s attempt to woo them by trimming national insurance

Rishi Sunak has received no poll bounce after cutting taxes in last week’s autumn statement, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer.

Following a week in which the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, described a reduction in national insurance as “the biggest tax cut on work since the 1980s” Labour’s lead has increased to 16 percentage points over the Tories.

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Most British people hold positive view of immigration, survey reveals

Although Tories claim curbing net inflow of migrants is critical issue for voters, poll shows attitudes have evolved significantly

A majority of the British public now hold positive views about the impact of immigration on the UK, despite intense political rhetoric surrounding the issue, according to an academic survey.

The European Social Survey, which has sampled attitudes every two years since 2001, said British views on immigration and its economic and cultural impact had undergone “a complete about-turn” over the past two decades, becoming significantly more favourable after 2016.

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Labour’s Wes Streeting interviewed at Labour party conference – UK politics live

Shadow health secretary questioned by Guardian editor-in-chief, Katharine Viner

Q: You oppose the Rwanda policy because you don’t think it will work. If the supreme court rules it is legal, and deportations start and it is seen to be working, would you still reverse it.

Yes, says Starmer. He says it is the wrong policy. It is very expensive, and it only affect only a small number of people. And the policy does not deal with the problem at source.

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Rishi Sunak delays some green targets and scraps others as he reveals net zero policy shift – as it happened

PM says people to be given more time to switch gas boilers to heat pumps, and ban on sale of new petrol and diesel cars delayed

Climate scientists have expressed dismay at reports that Rishi Sunak is to row back on net zero commitments, arguing that this would be harmful not just environmentally, but economically too.

Prof Myles Allen, professor of geosystem sciences at Oxford University, said:

We haven’t heard the actual speech yet, but we all have to hope the PM is true to his word that he is looking for better ways to deliver net zero, not just slower ways. As we have found time and again in Britain, dithering costs money. The USA is seeing other countries’ faltering as an opportunity to get ahead. It will be sad indeed if we just see it as an opportunity to join the laggards.

It’s not pragmatic, it’s pathetic. This rolling back on emissions cuts for short-term political gain will undermine the transition to net zero and with it the future opportunities, prosperity and safety of the entire country.

Burning fossil fuels produces carbon dioxide which causes global warming which amplifies the consequences of extreme weather events, as we have so clearly seen this summer. Climate change will continue until we reach net zero globally, and we will then have to suffer the consequences of that warmer world for decades or more. It also matters how we reach net zero, not just when – delaying action means more emissions which means more severe consequences.

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Almost 90% of voters – including 65% of Tories – say Britain needs fresh team of leaders, poll suggests – UK politics live

Rishi Sunak’s government seen as less competent that Boris Johnson’s administration

The UK economy is set to witness the highest inflation rate of the world’s G7 advanced economies this year, according to new forecasts, PA Media reports. PA says:

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) also increased its predicted average UK inflation rate for 2023 compared with its previous estimate.

Economists at the globally recognised organisation also reduced their UK growth forecast slightly for next year amid pressure from higher interest rates.

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Rishi Sunak is less trusted on the UK economy than recent Tory PMs, poll finds

Prime minister can find comfort in ranking above Liz Truss, however

Rishi Sunak is seen as less competent on economic affairs than most recent Conservative prime ministers, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer.

The prime minister has made reducing inflation one of his key priorities, as well as reducing debt and avoiding a recession. Much of his pitch has been on his economic management skills as a former chancellor.

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Rishi Sunak’s approval rating slips as big summer push fails to spark revival

Prime minister drops further in opinion polls after populist policies on migrants backfire

Rishi Sunak’s approval ratings have failed to improve over the summer political break – despite several weeks of Tory policy blitzes intended to win back voters.

The latest Opinium survey for the Observer shows the Conservative have failed to shift the dial in Sunak’s favour, with the prime minister dropping two points in the past two weeks to a net score of -25% (24% approve, 49% disapprove).

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Labour boasts commanding 17-point opinion poll lead over Tories

Keir Starmer’s approval ratings suffer but his party remains far ahead of Conservatives as Westminster summer recess begins

Labour goes into the Westminster summer break with a commanding 17-point lead over the Conservatives, despite a fall in approval ratings for party leader Keir Starmer.

The latest Opinium poll for the Observer puts Labour on 42%, down one point since a fortnight ago, while the Tories are down three points to 25%, their poorest showing since the disastrous premiership of Liz Truss.

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Rishi Sunak says he is ‘totally, 100% on it’ in battle against inflation – UK politics live

Prime minister says he knows people will be anxious about rate rise but ‘it is going to be OK’

Rishi Sunak has posted a thread on Twitter setting out what the government is doing to help people with the cost of living. It starts here.

He ends by saying “if we can hold our nerve” he is confident the plan will deliver.

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Keir Starmer confirms Labour considering extending vote in general elections to EU nationals and 16/17-year-olds – UK politics live

Labour leader also refuses to rule out deal with Lib Dems, saying he wants outright majority but will ‘see what situation is next year’

Q: Would Labour repeal the Public Order Act?

Starmer says Labour was opposed to it as it was going through.

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Labour has 18-point lead on Tories as local election day looms

Opinium poll shows slump in personal ratings of Rishi Sunak, with 26% approving of his performance and 44% disapproving

Labour’s lead over the Conservatives stands at a commanding 18 points, according to the last Opinium poll for the Observer before a huge set of local elections.

With more than 8,000 council seats across 230 authorities in England up for election on Thursday, the Tories had been hoping that polls would tighten as they attempt to avoid heavy losses in both the red wall of old Labour seats and the blue all – south-eastern seats where, traditionally, they have been strong.

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Yvette Cooper was ‘not told’ about Labour’s Sunak attack ad in advance

Shadow home secretary was not consulted about the widely criticised advert that claims Rishi Sunak did not believe in jailing child abusers

The shadow home secretary, Yvette Cooper, was not informed or consulted about the release of a widely criticised Labour advertisement that claims Rishi Sunak does not believe adults convicted of sexually assaulting children should go to prison, the Observer has been told.

As several senior party figures distanced themselves from the poster that has caused a huge row within the party, Labour sources said that Cooper “had nothing to do with it” – despite being in overall charge of crime policy for Labour.

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ITV news is more trusted than BBC after Lineker row and Sharp controversy

Poll finds ITV news is more trusted source of information and trust in BBC has slipped

The BBC has slipped behind ITV as Britain’s most trusted news source in the wake of the row over Gary Lineker’s suspension, according to a new poll for the Observer.

The corporation remains one of the most trusted providers, according to the latest Opinium poll. Two in five trust BBC News and 26% distrust it, giving it a “net trust” of +14%. ITV recorded a net trust score of +23%.

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