UK real pay grows at fastest rate in two years as unemployment rises

Figures provide mixed message for Bank of England when it considers interest rate cut next month

The level of real pay for UK workers is rising at its fastest rate in more than two years despite a cooling of the labour market that has led to rising unemployment and falling job vacancies, the latest official figures show.

Fresh data from the Office for National Statistics showed the mild recession in the second half of 2023 has had an impact on demand for workers but has been slower to affect wages.

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UK pay growth hits record 7.3%, despite calls for wage restraint from Bailey and Hunt – business live

Basic pay rises at joint-fastest rate on record, protecting workers from soaring inflation but adding to pressure on Bank of England

Bloomberg agrees that the Bank of England will not be pleased by today’s jobs report, saying:

UK wage growth held at a level that Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said is fueling inflation, maintaining pressure for higher interest rates.

Average weekly earnings excluding bonuses held at 7.3% in the three months through May after figures for the period through April were revised up, the Office for National Statistics said Tuesday.

“These figures are another dismal reflection of the Tories’ mismanagement of the economy over the last thirteen years.

“Britain is the only G7 country with a lower employment rate than before the pandemic and real wages have fallen yet again – just as more and more families feel the devastating impact of the Tory mortgage bombshell.

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Record UK pay growth adds to pressure for interest rate rise

Jeremy Hunt and Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey call for wage restraint to help curb inflation

Wages increased at a faster rate than expected in May, putting pressure on the Bank of England to push up the cost of borrowing at its next meeting in August.

Earnings growth hit 7.3%, driven by the strongest rise in private sector pay growth outside the pandemic period of 7.7%, the Office for National Statistics said.

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UK wage growth jumps, making interest rate rise more likely

Unemployment rate unexpectedly falls to 3.8% in three months to April, in sign of strength for jobs market

UK wages grew at a faster than expected pace in April, reinforcing expectations the Bank of England will raise interest rates next week.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics show growth in average regular pay, excluding bonuses, strengthened to 7.2% in the three months to April – the highest level on record, excluding the Covid pandemic.

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Sickness drags down UK economy as job vacancies go unfilled

Rishi Sunak wants growth, but ONS figures show rising levels of inactivity because of ill-health

Unwelcome though it is for a government facing strikes by doctors and nurses in the months ahead, the message from the latest labour market figures is clear: Britain is already the sick man of Europe.

More than 2.5 million people who are economically inactive cite long-term sickness as the reason why they are not looking for a job – and the number is rising sharply.

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Real value of UK pay continues to slide as inflation bites

Wage increases in February outstripped by rises in cost of living, as unemployment rate rises

The real value of UK workers’ pay has continued to fall at the fastest rate for more than a decade, as wage increases in February were outstripped by high inflation.

The Office for National Statistics said annual growth in average pay, excluding bonuses, held steady at 6.6% in the three months to February despite a small rise in unemployment and decline in the number of job vacancies.

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Number of days lost to strikes is highest since the Thatcher era

Squeeze on households as pay growth falls at among fastest rates for 20 years

The number of working days lost to strike action last year reached the highest level since 1989, according to official figures showing that wage growth failed to keep pace with inflation amid the biggest real-terms fall on record.

The figures from the Office for National Statistics further highlight the squeeze on households in the cost of living crisis.

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Long-term sickness leaving 1.6m UK adults over 50 unable to work

Campaign charity Rest Less says figures illustrate not only a national health issue but an economic one

More than 1.6 million adults aged 50 and over are unable to work because of long-term sickness amid ballooning NHS waiting lists and an exodus from the British workforce since the pandemic, according to the most detailed analysis yet of official data for this age group.

The number has increased 20%, or 270,000 in three years, according to an analysis of Office for National Statistics figures by Rest Less, a digital community and advocate for over fifties.

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Exodus of more than half a million from workforce ‘puts UK economy at risk’

Loss of employees since Covid raises fears of weaker growth and higher inflation, says Lords report

An exodus of more than half a million people from the British workforce since the Covid pandemic is putting the economy at risk of weaker growth and persistently higher inflation, a Lords report has warned.

The House of Lords economic affairs committee said the sharp rise in economic inactivity – when working-age adults are neither in employment nor looking for a job – since the onset of the health emergency was posing “serious challenges” to the economy.

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UK train strikes: Rishi Sunak says government will not shift on rail negotiations – as it happened

Large parts of national rail network grind to halt as RMT union members strike for increased pay

There is similar pessimism about the prospects for a deal to prevent later rail strikes from the other side of the table.

Asked if there is a glimmer of hope in the negotiations, Network Rail chief executive Andrew Haines earlier this morning told BBC Breakfast (via PA Media):

It’s hard to see that today. I’ve learned, you know, through a long career, that sometimes the light is just around the corner.

But where I stand today, I’d have to say that with the level of disruption the RMT are imposing, the way forward isn’t obvious.

Well, we hope not. We want to get a deal but at the moment, there is no deal in sight.

So we’ve got the schedule down at the moment, which is running for the next four weeks. We will review that at the end of that if there’s no settlement on the table and we’ll decide what our next steps are, but at the moment there is no settlement to be had.

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UK pay falls at fastest rate for more than a decade

Inflation and soaring energy bills cause squeeze on living standards, as unemployment rises slightly

Average wages in the UK are falling at the fastest rate for more than a decade as annual pay growth fails to keep pace with the rising cost of living.

The Office for National Statistics said annual growth in regular pay, excluding bonuses, fell by 2.2% in the three months to April after adjusting for its preferred measure of inflation – the biggest fall since November 2011.

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UK employers take on workers at slower rate after fall in applicants

Shortage of candidates since January means thousands of vacancies unfilled

UK employers increased the number of new staff in May at the slowest pace since early 2021 after a steep fall in the number of workers responding to job adverts.

After an increase in job switching by workers last year, often to secure higher pay, employers said the shortage of candidates since January meant they were unable to fill thousands of vacancies.

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UK wages fall at fastest rate since 2014 as cost-of-living squeeze bites

Unemployment rate falls below pre-Covid level but rising prices and energy bills hitswages

Unemployment in the UK has fallen below pre-Covid levels, but high inflation amid Britain’s cost of living crisis means average wages fell at the fastest rate since 2014.

The Office for National Statistics said the unemployment rate fell to 3.9% in the three months to January, dropping below the 4% rate in February 2020 before the coronavirus pandemic took hold in the UK.

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UK living standards face squeeze despite strong jobs market

Analysis: Higher prices, taxes and energy costs will bring gloom despite low level of unemployment

Demand for workers is strong as the economy emerges from two years of pandemic-induced disruption. The supply of workers has been reduced by an increase in long-term sickness affecting mainly the over 50 age group.

As a result, there is enough upward pressure on pay to persuade the Bank of England to continue raising interest rates, but the big squeeze on living standards has begun.

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Downing St was repeatedly warned over Boris Johnson’s misleading jobs claims

Statistics watchdog wrote to the PM about ‘selective use of data’ after statement about number of people in work

Government officials were warned repeatedly about making misleading claims about job figures before the official statistics watchdog reprimanded Boris Johnson over the matter.

Ed Humpherson, the director general of the UK Statistics Authority (UKSA), said there had been “a series of informal discussions” before the regulator took the “unusual” step of issuing public rebukes to No 10 over the same issue twice last month.

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Generation X are heavy, risky drinkers. Will anything ever persuade us to stop?

Alcohol’s allure was powerful when we were growing up and those born after us consume far less. Now booze is falling out of fashion, is it time to assess old habits?

My first job in journalism was editing a free magazine called Rasp. In 1995, we ran a competition for a year’s supply of Two Dogs lemon brew, the Australian alcopop. Two Dogs tried to send us 365 bottles, and I negotiated them up to 1,000, indignant that a bottle a day could constitute a “supply”. It is the only time I’ve ever played hardball. Nobody entered the competition because we didn’t have any readers, and nor did we have any staff. The two of us, me and the designer, drank the whole lot in the space of two months. A constant drip feed of 4.5% ABV, all day. If anybody asked – there was a much larger team upstairs running TNT, a freesheet for expat Australians – we’d say it was a British tradition, going back to medieval times, when workers would sip ale because of the contaminated water supply. “But medieval ale would have been more like 0.5%,” they might have protested, except they were also constantly drunk, and at lunchtime we’d all go to the pub, 60 people in crocodile formation marching down the street, like a misbegotten nursery outing.

So the cliche of the drunken journalist happens to be true, but in the early 90s it was also true of teachers. Dave Lawrence, 56, co-author of Scarred for Life, of which more shortly, remembers his teacher training: “There was a pub across the road and at lunchtime, all the teachers would head over there, and all afternoon they would reek of booze.” It wasn’t really sectoral – this was just generation X. Colin Angus, a senior research fellow in the Sheffield Alcohol Research Group, is 39. He’s not generation X, which is usually defined as those born between 1965 and 1980. But in his pre-academic career in electrical wholesaling, “Everyone was always talking about the good old days of long, boozy lunches.”

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UK food worker shortages push prices up and risk Christmas turkey supplies

Dearth of delivery drivers, abattoir staff and fruit pickers caused by Covid and Brexit are fuelling wage rises with 5% hike in prices forecast

Food prices could rise by about 5% by the autumn – and turkeys and pigs in blankets could be in short supply this Christmas – as shortages of delivery drivers, abattoir staff and other workers drive up pay and other costs.

Industry insiders say that pay for lorry drivers and other supply chain workers, including abbatoir workers, plus vegetable and fruit pickers and packers have all risen because of difficulties in finding sufficient staff.

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Covid deepens south and north of England inequalities, study finds

IPPR North report reveals few signs of government’s levelling up agenda becoming reality

Covid-19 has deepened inequalities between the north and south of England, with little sign of the government’s “levelling up” agenda becoming a reality, a thinktank has warned, in an urgent “wake-up call” to Boris Johnson.

The north is experiencing levels of unemployment not seen since 1994, with areas put under the strictest tier 3 restrictions among the worst affected, IPPR North said in its annual health-check of the economy of the north of England.

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Tale of two Cities: FTSE 100 rises despite economic collapse

Surge in shares contrasts with Covid-related downturn and growing unemployment

The economic collapse in Britain during the second quarter of 2020 was the most brutal on record. Unemployment is forecast by the Bank of England to soar to 2.5m by Christmas. The Brexit cliff edge approaches. Yet in the City, the FTSE 100 has been on the up.

Never has the disconnect between financial trading and economic fundamentals appeared so extreme. What explains surging asset prices (the FTSE jumped 2% on the same day it was revealed the economy had slumped by 20%) when the outlook for many workers is so grim?

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What will coronavirus mean for the British economy?

As the UK faces what may be its worst ever recession, we begin a monthly series exploring the financial shock to business and living standards

One month after a national lockdown was declared in an attempt to limit the spread of Covid-19, it is clear that Britain is heading for the deepest recession in living memory.

Boris Johnson’s government launched unprecedented restrictions on 23 March, telling the British public that they must stay at home and bringing life as the nation knew it to an abrupt halt.

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