Initiative may be slipping away from US and Israel as Middle East crisis deepens

There is little sign of imminent regime change in Iran as its blockade of strait of Hormuz shocks global economy

Few doubt that in the first days of the new war in the Middle East, the initiative belonged to the US and its ally Israel. Now it seems less sure, however.

Mohsen Rezaee, a senior officer in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, on Sunday said “the end of the war is in our hands” and called for the withdrawal of Washington’s forces from the Gulf and compensation for all damage caused by the assault.

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Cory Booker calls both parties ‘feckless’ for ceding war powers to Trump

Democrat says Congress ‘doing nothing’ may embolden president to attack countries such as Cuba and North Korea

Democratic US senator Cory Booker has criticized both his own political party as well as its Republican counterpart for being “feckless” in ceding congressional war powers to Donald Trump, saying that their decision could embolden the president to unilaterally attack Cuba, North Korea and other countries.

“I’m going to be one of those Democrats [who] say I think both parties have been feckless in allowing the growth of the power of the presidency,” Booker said on Sunday on CNN’s State of the Union.

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US not ready to seek deal to end war with Iran, Donald Trump says

Tehran wants ceasefire but terms ‘not good enough yet’, US president claims, as both sides launch new waves of strikes

Donald Trump has warned he is not ready to seek a deal to end the US-Israeli offensive against Iran, saying that though he thought Tehran was keen to negotiate a ceasefire, the US would fight on for better terms.

Trump’s comments came as Iran launched fresh missile and drone attacks on countries in the Gulf and on Israel, and Israeli and US warplanes launched new waves of strikes on Iran.

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Middle East crisis live: Trump ‘surprised’ Iran has targeted Gulf countries and claims US ‘decimated’ Kharg Island

US president said he did not want to make a deal with Iran yet, while claiming that he might hit Kharg Island again ‘just for fun’

The Trump administration’s communications licensing tsar fired a warning shot over the US broadcasting industry Saturday, threatening to cancel the spectrum permits of broadcasters pushing what he termed “hoaxes and news distortions”.

Federal Communications Commission (FCC) chair Brendan Carr posted on social media that broadcasters running “fake news – have a chance now to correct course before their license renewals come up. The law is clear. Broadcasters must operate in the public interest, and they will lose their licenses if they do not.”

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‘Could be the making of him’: Starmer’s allies praise stance on Trump and Iran

Refusal to kowtow to US president has won public backing – and left Badenoch and Farage playing catch-up

It is not often that Keir Starmer’s allies believe he has Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch on the run – but on Iran, they think he is on the right side of history and public opinion.

“It could be the making of him,” said Emily Thornberry, the Labour chair of the foreign affairs committee, who was first out of the blocks to say she thought Donald Trump’s strikes on Iran were illegal. “You’ve not had a British prime minister say no to an American president since Vietnam. This is a big deal.”

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The escalation trap: how the Iran war could become more costly and complex

Iran is trying to create wedges between Gulf states and the US, but Trump is very comfortable on the ‘escalatory ladder’

Middle East crisis – live updates

In its current phase, the Israeli-US war against Iran and its proxies has become a proving ground for two competing concepts of military escalation, each of which threatens to become a trap.

On one side, Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu have failed thus far in their ill-defined and shifting strategic aims. Despite killing Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and other key leaders in the opening salvo of the campaign, the clerical regime remains and Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium is unsecured. Airstrikes are intensifying and hitting a greater number of targets.

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Iran threatens to escalate war after Trump says ‘many countries’ will send warships to strait of Hormuz

US president calls on China, France, Japan and the UK to send vessels after US strikes Kharg Island oil facilities

Iran threatened on Saturday to further escalate the war raging in the Middle East by targeting any facility in the region with US ties, after Donald Trump predicted “many countries” would send warships to support a US bid to reopen by force the strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway closed to virtually all maritime traffic by Tehran since the beginning of the war.

Iran has responded to the joint US-Israeli offensive, which is entering its third week, with daily attacks on oil and other infrastructure around the Gulf region, as well as against Israel.

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‘No clear goal’: lack of Iran war plan has unleashed chaos and could stymie US military for decades, say critics

White House contends with reality of shoddy preparations for war and unclear conditions for victory

As US and Israeli jets descended to deliver the opening salvos of the war in Iran, Donald Trump’s back-of-the-envelope plan for regime change in Tehran was about to run into the reality of the largest US intervention in the Middle East since the start of the Iraq war in 2003.

That reality came quickly.

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Former Iranian diplomat was granted asylum in Australia after defecting

Mohammad Pournajaf, Tehran’s former charge d’affaires in Canberra, sought protection in 2023, government source confirms

One of Iran’s former top diplomats in Australia has defected from the theocratic regime, with the revelations only coming to light this week after six members of the Iranian women’s football squad were granted protection.

London-based news outlet Iran International, which is not tied to the Islamic Republic’s regime, reported on Friday that Mohammad Pournajaf, Tehran’s charge d’affaires in Canberra until at least 2023, had applied for asylum. Another Iranian diplomat had applied for asylum in Denmark, the outlet reported.

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Four crew confirmed dead after US military plane crash in Iraq

Rescue efforts continue for remaining two crew members from refuelling plane that crashed in western desert

Four of the six crew members onboard a US military aircraft that crashed in western Iraq were killed, the US military has said as rescue efforts continued for the remaining two.

The KC-135 military refuelling plane crashed in western Iraq on Thursday, in an incident the military said involved another aircraft but was not the result of hostile or friendly fire.

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Putin’s ‘hidden hand’ lies behind Iran’s drone tactics, UK defence secretary says

Pilots reportedly adopting Russian tactics as statement in name of new Iranian supreme leader vows continued attacks on US bases

Vladimir Putin’s “hidden hand” lies behind Iran’s military methods, the UK defence secretary has said, after a night in which drones struck a base used by western forces in Erbil, northern Iraq.

John Healey was speaking after British officers at the UK’s military headquarters in north-west London told him that drone pilots from Iran and Iranian proxies were increasingly adopting tactics “from the Russians”.

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Middle East crisis live: Iran steps up campaign to disrupt energy markets as oil price spikes above $100 a barrel

Iran has set ablaze two tankers in Iraqi waters as it increased attacks on oil and transport facilities across the Middle East

An Iranian source is denying the country will allow India-flagged tankers to pass through the vital strait of Hormuz, Reuters is reporting.

The news agency a little earlier quoted an Indian source as saying Iran would in fact allow such tankers to pass through the strait, a key artery for global oil trade.

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Middle East crisis live: Iran steps up campaign to disrupt energy markets as oil price spikes above $100 a barrel

Iran has set ablaze two tankers in Iraqi waters as it increased attacks on oil and transport facilities across the Middle East

An Iranian source is denying the country will allow India-flagged tankers to pass through the vital strait of Hormuz, Reuters is reporting.

The news agency a little earlier quoted an Indian source as saying Iran would in fact allow such tankers to pass through the strait, a key artery for global oil trade.

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We attacked Iran with no clear plan for regime change, Israeli security sources say

If regime holds, control of enriched uranium may be ultimate measure of US-Israeli success, insiders say

Israel did not have a realistic plan for regime change when it attacked Iran, multiple Israeli security sources have said, with expectations that airstrikes could lead to a popular uprising having been driven by “wishful thinking” rather than hard intelligence.

Iran has survived nearly two weeks of bombing raids and the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Trump is publicly contemplating ending the increasingly costly war.

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We attacked Iran with no clear plan for regime change, Israeli security sources say

If regime holds, control of enriched uranium may be ultimate measure of US-Israeli success, insiders say

Israel did not have a realistic plan for regime change when it attacked Iran, multiple Israeli security sources have said, with expectations that airstrikes could lead to a popular uprising having been driven by “wishful thinking” rather than hard intelligence.

Iran has survived nearly two weeks of bombing raids and the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Trump is publicly contemplating ending the increasingly costly war.

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Thursday briefing: What an Iran negotiator thinks could happen next – and why Trump still has an off-ramp

In today’s newsletter: Robert Malley, who led talks for the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, helps make sense of the war

Good morning, and apologies for the interruption to your usual programming. Stepping out from behind the editing desk to write today’s newsletter feels somewhat like a player-manager throwing himself on to the pitch, but I’ll try not to destabilise your morning routine too much. Lord knows, the world doesn’t need any more chaos.

Since the US and Israel first attacked Iran two weeks ago, it’s been a scramble to keep up with events. The death of a supreme leader, speculation about his successor, global implications ranging from oil price spikes to drones raining down on once-safe cities like Doha and Dubai – the world has rarely felt so unstable.

Iran | Iran dramatically escalated its strategy of striking civilian infrastructure and transport networks across the Gulf on Wednesday, attacking commercial ships and targeting Dubai’s international airport as US and Israeli warplanes launched new waves of strikes on the Islamic Republic.

UK news | Keir Starmer overruled officials who warned of a “reputational risk” in making Peter Mandelson US ambassador, despite being handed a dossier of evidence about the peer’s relationship with the sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, documents reveal.

Artificial intelligence | Popular AI chatbots helped researchers plot violent attacks, including bombing synagogues and assassinating politicians, with one telling a user posing as a would-be school shooter: “Happy (and safe) shooting!”

Oil | The International Energy Agency is poised to call for the largest release of government oil reserves in its history to help calm the oil price shock triggered by the US-Israeli attacks on Iran.

UK politics | Keir Starmer warned his cabinet against an “overly deferential” approach to the Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish governments, telling ministers they should be prepared to make spending decisions “even when devolved governments may oppose this”, according to a leaked memo.

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Countries must seek energy independence through renewables and nuclear, says John Kerry

Former US secretary of state says oil shock driven by war in Iran highlights dangers of reliance on fossil fuels

Countries must seek energy independence through renewable resources and nuclear energy for their national security, and to avoid the “choke points” of fossil fuel supply, the former US secretary of state John Kerry has warned.

The war in Iran has sent oil prices soaring, as refineries and fields have closed down in several Middle Eastern countries and many tankers are stranded in the strait of Hormuz, with economic impacts beginning to be felt around the world.

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Can the IEA put a lid on the price per barrel by releasing oil stockpiles?

Despite rare act of multilateralism, there is no guarantee the IEA’s release of 400m barrels from reserves will depress prices

When the global economy was still in the grip of the devastating 1970s oil crises, exposing the chokehold exerted by a few important oil states, the International Energy Agency (IEA) was created, in the hope of limiting future shocks.

Almost half a century on, the IEA’s 32 members have drawn up plans to hit the emergency button, for only the fifth time in its history.

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Mojtaba Khamenei was hurt in strike that killed his father, Iran’s Cyprus ambassador confirms

Alireza Salarian says Iran’s new supreme leader was lucky to survive strike that killed six of his family members

Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, was injured in the 28 February attack that killed six of his family members, including his father, Tehran’s ambassador to Cyprus has confirmed.

In an interview conducted at his embassy compound in Nicosia, Alireza Salarian elaborated on the circumstances in which Khamenei, 56, was injured, saying he was lucky to survive the strike, which levelled the late ayatollah’s residence.

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US weighs sending forces into Iran to secure nuclear stockpile, reports say

Tehran has enough material to make at least 10 nuclear warheads but extracting it would be very risky, say experts

The Trump administration is reportedly considering the deployment of special forces into Iran to secure its stockpile of highly enriched uranium (HEU), which experts say could be used to make at least 10 nuclear warheads.

Preventing Iran from acquiring a bomb is one of Trump’s stated war aims, and the 440kg HEU stockpile represents the greatest nuclear threat as it could be turned into weapons-grade uranium relatively easily. The US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, has told Congress that “people are going to have to go and get it”.

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