Category Archives: Economic growth (GDP)

UK economy returns to growth as GDP rises 0.5% in October

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Growth figure shrank 0.3% in a quarter, reflecting concerns over lengthy recession

Britain’s economy returned to growth in October as activity bounced back from the impact of the additional bank holiday for the Queen’s funeral, however a long recession is still expected.

The Office for National Statistics said gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.5% on the month, after a decline of 0.6% in September when many businesses closed their doors during the national mourning period.

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Is the UK really facing a second winter of discontent?

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Comparisons with 1979 are misleading – strikes over pay now are smaller in scale and focus, and stoked by inflation

Britain is facing a winter of strikes, as industrial action on the railways spreads to the health service and other key sectors of the economy. Such is the wave of discontent that more than 1m working days could be lost to disputes in December, the most since 1989, during Margaret Thatcher’s final years in power.

With inflation at the highest rate in 41 years amid the cost of living crisis, it’s not difficult to see why workers are pushing for better pay. Coming after the worst decade for average wage growth since the Napoleonic wars, including deep real-terms pay cuts for many in the public sector, it’s even less surprising still.

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How the autumn statement brought back the ‘squeezed middle’

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IFS and Resolution Foundation say Jeremy Hunt’s policies will shock middle England, with higher taxes here to stay


Traditionally elections in Britain are decided by swing voters in a relatively small number of seats. Parties go to considerable lengths to tailor their policies to the perceived demands of those getting by on average incomes. Pollsters have even coined names for the archetypal electors that need to be wooed: Basildon man and Worcester woman.

So it will be of some concern to government strategists that the post-autumn statement analysis by thinktanks focused heavily on how the measures announced by Jeremy Hunt had an effect on those not particularly poor but not especially rich either. Both the Resolution Foundation and the Institute for Fiscal Studies highlighted the return of the “squeezed middle”.

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Decline of UK manufacturing accelerates as government ‘abandons’ sector

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Amid higher costs and worker shortages, British Chambers of Commerce says Brexit is another factor

When the minor ups and downs caused by the extra bank holiday for the Queen’s funeral are stripped out of the latest GDP figures, it is clear the long decline of Britain’s industrial base has accelerated.

Protected by the government through the coronavirus pandemic, this year, factory owners say ministers have abandoned them to cope with a long recession without so much as a glance in their direction.

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UK economy being held back by worsening health of British public, Andy Haldane warns

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RSA chief executive says more than a century of progress was now going into reverse

The worsening health of the British people is holding back economic growth for the first time since the Industrial Revolution after years of underinvestment in services, Andy Haldane has warned.

The chief executive of the Royal Society of Arts (RSA) said more than a century of progress on health and wellbeing was going into reverse, with a direct impact on the economy and the cost of living emergency.

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Non-dom tax breaks being reviewed by the Treasury in effort to raise revenue

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Officials are also looking at incorporating cut in tax-free allowance for dividends into autumn statement

Treasury officials are examining whether the autumn statement could include changes to non-dom status and moves to raise taxes on dividends by cutting tax-free allowances.

No final decisions have been taken but Whitehall sources said options were being examined by the Treasury’s high net worth individuals policy team.

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Lloyds bank profits plunge by 26% as lender prepares for bad loans

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Larger-than-forecast drop to £1.5bn in third quarter came despite rising interest rates

Profits at Lloyds Banking Group dropped by 26% in the three months to September, as the UK’s “deteriorating” economic outlook forced it to put aside nearly £670m to protect against potential defaults on loans and mortgages.

Lloyds, which owns Halifax and is the country’s largest mortgage lender, said pre-tax profits had tumbled to £1.5bn in the third quarter, down from £2bn during the same period last year. That was larger than the 9.5% fall to £1.8bn that analysts had predicted.

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Senior Tories say Boris Johnson’s return as PM would risk party’s death

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Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak hold talks as deadline for nominations approaches on Monday

Senior Tories are engaged in a frantic campaign to stop Boris Johnson staging a dramatic return to Downing Street, with claims he would cause further economic damage and risk “the end of the Conservative party”.

Johnson’s team was claiming on Saturday night that he had privately secured the support of the 100 MPs necessary for entering the race, despite only 55 backing him in public. The assertion was immediately disputed by MPs and rival leadership campaign sources. Johnson released a photo of himself lobbying an MP on the phone, but his allies on Saturday night could not confirm he would officially enter the contest to win back the leadership he was deposed from just months ago.

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UK economic outlook downgraded to ‘negative’ by rating agency

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Moody’s say downgrade from ‘stable’ was driven by political instability and high inflation

The UK’s economic outlook has been downgraded from “stable” to “negative” by the rating agency Moody’s because of political instability and high inflation.

Moody’s said the change in outlook was driven by “heightened unpredictability in policymaking amid weaker growth prospects and high inflation” and “risks to the UK’s debt affordability from likely higher borrowing and risk of a sustained weakening in policy credibility”.

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Liz Truss fights for survival as even allies say she could have only days left

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Prime minister to meet mutinous Tory MPs this week in effort to shore up her position after U-turns on tax

Liz Truss is fighting for her political survival, with Conservative MPs threatening to oust her and even allies warning she has just days to turn around her premiership despite ripping up her economic strategy and appointing Jeremy Hunt as chancellor.

The beleaguered prime minister will attempt to shore up her crumbling support by gathering her cabinet ministers at No 10 on Monday and then embarking on a series of meetings with mutinous Tory MPs before the next budget in a fortnight’s time.

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Unfunded tax cuts mean UK ‘will need £60bn spending cuts’

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IFS says Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget will leave ministers making serious reductions in public services

Kwasi Kwarteng will need to find £60bn of savings by 2026 to fill the gap left by unfunded tax cuts and the costs of extra borrowing triggered by a panicked reaction on international money markets to the chancellor’s “mini-budget”, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

The UK will also struggle to hit the chancellor’s 2.5% growth target, with economic forecasts by the investment bank Citigroup that the IFS uses to underpin its analysis showing the UK will struggle to grow at more than 0.8% on average over the next five years.

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Truss’s mini-budget looks likely to cost the Tories the next election | Pippa Crerar

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Tory MPs fear voters see them as the nasty party again after the prime minister refused to rethink tax cuts for the rich

Liz Truss has long channelled Margaret Thatcher – echoing her rhetoric, her free market instincts and even her clothes – but as the Tory conference kicked off in Birmingham on Sunday many in her party were hoping that she would relinquish ambitions to be the next Iron Lady and drop her mini-budget plans.

There were early glimmers of hope. In an article for the Sun, she admitted her proposals would cause “short term disruption” but that she had an “iron grip” on the country’s finances. Then she told the BBC she understood public concerns. “I do accept we should have laid the ground better,” she said.

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Liz Truss admits she should have ‘laid ground better’ before mini-budget and says cabinet not consulted about 45% top rate tax cut – live

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Latest updates: PM vows to press ahead with mini-budget plans and dismisses objections to top rate of tax being axed

Q: Are you absolutely committed to getting rid of the 45% rate of tax?

Yes, says Truss.

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‘Fiscal sustainability’ plus rising borrowing costs could add up to cuts

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To make the sums work, some suggest Kwasi Kwarteng may include deep spending reductions in his medium-term fiscal plan

When Kwasi Kwarteng met City figures on Tuesday, the Treasury said he had “reiterated the government’s commitment to fiscal sustainability”: though the grim faces of attendees in the official photos suggested they may not have been terribly reassured.

Some analysts are now warning that with borrowing costs rising sharply, and the chancellor determined not to water down his radical tax plans, “fiscal sustainability” points to one thing: spending cuts.

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Liz Truss ‘plans to loosen immigration rules to boost UK economy’

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PM expected to expand shortage occupation list to help businesses fill jobs amid recession warnings

Liz Truss is expected to loosen immigration rules in an attempt to stimulate economic growth amid warnings of a recession.

The prime minister is set to expand the government’s shortage occupation list in order to help businesses fill vacancies by recruiting overseas workers with less bureaucracy.

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UK economy shrank by 0.1% in three months to June

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ONS says two bank holidays to mark Queen’s jubilee contributed to fall in output in June

Britain’s economy contracted by 0.1% in the three months to June, according to official figures that revealed the weakening outlook for the UK, which is expected to enter a recession later this year.

The dip in output in the second quarter followed 0.8% growth in the first quarter and was driven by the health sector – as Covid testing and the vaccine programme was wound down – and by retail, as household spending fell. Economists had forecast a bigger fall in output of 0.2% in the second quarter.

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Bank of England hikes interest rates and says inflation will hit 13%

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Base rate raised by 0.5 percentage points to 1.75%, as Bank says inflation will hit 13% in October

Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has left Britain on course for a recession lasting more than a year and inflation above 13%, the Bank of England has warned as it raised interest rates for a sixth successive time.

Threadneedle Street said it had no choice but to increase borrowing costs by 0.5 percentage points to 1.75%, blaming Russia for cost of living pressures not seen in more than four decades and a 5% drop in living standards straddling this year and next – the biggest since records began in the 1960s.

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York and North Yorkshire to get mayor under £540m devolution deal

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Elected leader would take office in 2024 alongside return of powers from Westminster as part of levelling-up agenda

York and North Yorkshire are to elect a mayor and receive £540m of government investment over 30 years in a landmark devolution deal to be signed on Monday.

The agreement will create a new combined authority across the region led by a directly elected mayor, who will have the power to spend the money on local priorities such as transport, education and housing.

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Tory leadership race: Rishi Sunak calls himself ‘common sense’ Thatcherite – as it happened

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Former chancellor says UK ‘needs to control borders’ and again references Margaret Thatcher

In an interview with GB News, Liz Truss was asked if she would keep the expensive wallpaper in the Downing Street flat, installed as part of Boris Johnson’s controversial refurbishment, if she became PM. In what is being seen by some as a dig at Johnson, she replied:

I’m not going to have the time to be thinking about the wallpaper in No 10, because we’ve only got two years until the general election – we need to hit the ground running.

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Boris Johnson has left the UK economy in a parlous state

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Analysis: If Johnsonomics stands for anything, it is a lack of plan or vision to address Britain’s economic woes

Boris Johnson entered Downing Street in July 2019 with a promise. The doubters, doomsters and gloomsters were going to get it wrong again: his leadership would make Brexit a success, re-igniting an economy stalled by the divisions over Europe.

Three years later, almost to the day, he prepares to leave with the country reeling from a political implosion of his own making, and an economy teetering on the brink of recession.

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