Labour’s poll lead could still collapse, shadow ministers warned

Chief strategist uses examples from around world to urge against complacency, warning ‘polls do not predict the future’

Labour’s poll lead could collapse in the weeks before the general election, the party’s chief campaign strategist has told shadow ministers, as he warned them not to be complacent going into the election year.

Morgan McSweeney, Labour’s director of campaigns, recently gave a presentation to the shadow cabinet in which he showed MPs what happened in the months before eight different elections from around the world. In each case, the clear favourite lost after their poll lead disappeared in the weeks leading up to the vote.

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UK weather: Storm Henk triggers more than 300 flood warnings in England

Train operators say services face delays and cancellations after rain and strong winds batter UK

More than 300 flood warnings are in place across England as travellers face transport delays, with train services struggling to get back on track after rain and strong winds from Storm Henk lashed large parts of the UK.

The Environment Agency said on Wednesday there were 368 active alerts in England for possible flooding, 322 flood warnings, meaning flooding is expected and, in Northampton, one danger-to-life severe flood warning.

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Decoding the junior doctors’ strike – from patient safety to public support

Health bosses raise alarm as junior doctors begin the longest strike in NHS history. But how will the action actually affect patients?

Almost a year after the first strike over pay and conditions, junior doctors in England are going out on strike again for six days. (A pay deal has already been reached in Scotland, while doctors in Wales are due to strike later this month and those in Northern Ireland are being balloted.)

While the new health secretary, Victoria Atkins, is on slightly better terms with the British Medical Association (BMA), which represents junior doctors, than her predecessor, Steve Barclay, the doctors and the government are still a long way apart. As the two sides make their case, here’s some help with interpreting what they have to say.

Six days of strike action following bank holidays at a time of enormous pressure, there are real issues around patient safety”

NHS Confederation chief executive, Matthew Taylor, 23 December

Junior doctors’ pay has been cut by more than a quarter since 2008”

BMA website

The public know the only way to have a healthcare system that looks after them is to have enough doctors. And they can completely appreciate [that junior doctors’ pay] is just not enough”

Dr Vivek Trivedi, co-leader of the British Medical Association, 20 December

They have taken the decision to walk away from the discussions we were having, which were live”

The health secretary, Victoria Atkins, 13 December

I mean even recently the secretary of state has said they have a final offer to give. Well then give it and let’s solve the dispute”

Dr Rob Laurenson, co-leader of the British Medical Association, 30 December

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UK shoppers spent £13.7bn on groceries in run-up to Christmas

Consumers buy more items – including plenty of parsnips and sprouts – to beat last year’s spend by 7%

UK shoppers spent £13.7bn on groceries in the run-up to Christmas – 7% more than a year before – as they sought out bargains and switched to discounters to try to offset price inflation.

The number of items bought rose by 2% in December as prices climbed by 6.7%, according to analysts at Kantar, although that was down from 9.6% in November – making it the biggest monthly drop in inflation the data firm has ever recorded.

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Wednesday briefing: Decoding the junior doctors’ strike – from patient safety to public support

In today’s newsletter: Health bosses raise alarm as junior doctors begin the longest strike in NHS history. But how will the action actually impact patients?

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Good morning. It is never a good time to be seriously ill, but this week is worse than most. The NHS is in the grip of its customary winter crisis, which typically peaks in early January. More than 125,000 posts are vacant, and about 6.5m people are on waiting lists for routine appointments, more than a million of them for more than one procedure.

Today, junior doctors in England go out on strike again, for six days. (A pay deal has already been reached in Scotland, while doctors in Wales are due to strike later this month and those in Northern Ireland are currently being balloted.) Almost a year after the first strike over pay and conditions, the dispute still appears a distance from being resolved.

Israel-Gaza war | One of Hamas’s most senior officials, Saleh al-Arouri, was killed in an Israeli drone strike in Beirut that threatened a significant and dangerous escalation of Israel’s war against Hamas and its related conflict with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. Read Jason Burke’s analysis.

Japan | A passenger jet that collided with a coast guard plane in a catastrophic accident at Tokyo’s Haneda Airport had been given permission to land, Japan Airlines executives have said. Five crew members on the coast guard plane were killed while all 379 passengers evacuated from the burning Japan Airlines jet.

UK news | Camila Batmanghelidjh, who created the Kids Company children’s charity and became one of the UK’s best known and most powerful campaigners for disadvantaged youngs people, has died aged 61.

Climate Crisis | The UK had its second hottest year on record in 2023, according to provisional data from the Met Office, as the climate crisis continued to deliver elevated temperatures. Such a warm year would have occurred only once in 500 years without human-caused global heating, the scientists said.

US news | The president of Harvard University has resigned amid pressure over her response to questions about antisemitism at US colleges and allegations that she has plagiarized some of her academic work. Claudine Gay’s six-month tenure is the shortest in the university’s history.

Six days of strike action following bank holidays at a time of enormous pressure, there are real issues around patient safety”

NHS Confederation chief executive, Matthew Taylor, 23 December

Junior doctors’ pay has been cut by more than a quarter since 2008”

BMA website

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Family of man found dead on Bibby Stockholm turn to crowdfunding to repatriate his body

Leonard Farruku’s family ‘facing a double tragedy with not being able to have his body back home’ in Albania

The family of a man believed to have killed himself on the controversial Bibby Stockholm barge in Portland, Dorset, say they have had to turn to crowdfunding to bring him back to Albania for burial.

Leonard Farruku, 27, was found unresponsive onboard the vessel commissioned by the Home Office to accommodate up to 500 asylum seekers at Portland Port, Dorset, on 12 December.

In the UK and Ireland, Samaritans can be contacted on freephone 116 123, or email jo@samaritans.org or jo@samaritans.ie. In the US, you can call or text the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline on 988, chat on 988lifeline.org, or text HOME to 741741 to connect with a crisis counsellor. In Australia, the crisis support service Lifeline is 13 11 14. Other international helplines can be found at befrienders.org

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No 10 refuses to follow Cleverly in setting end of 2024 as target date for ending all small boat crossings – as it happened

Downing Street refuses to endorse home secretary as he says his aim is to reduce number of people crossing Channel on small boats to ‘zero’. This live blog is closed

At the Downing Street lobby briefing this morning the PM’s spokesperson claimed the government had “gone further” than promised in tackling the asylum application backlog. In response to comments from Labour and others saying the legacy backlog has not been fully cleared, the spokesperson said:

We committed to clearing the backlog. That is what the government has done.

We are being very transparent about what that entails.

I said that this government would clear the backlog of asylum decisions by the end of 2023.

That’s exactly what we’ve done.

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‘Perilous and chaotic’: why officials are nervy before a likely UK election in 2024

Paper ballots may act as barrier to cyber attacks, but introduction of voter ID could lead to a host of complications

While the date of the next UK general election itself remains in the hands of the prime minister, Rishi Sunak, one thing is certain: when the campaign begins it has the potential to be one of the most perilous and chaotic in the country’s history, for a variety of reasons.

One point is worth noting immediately: although the UK is often lumped in with the long list of countries holding elections in 2024, Sunak could theoretically hold it as late as January 2025, maximising the Conservatives’ full five-year term.

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Climate crisis: 2023 was UK’s second-hottest year on record

Such a warm year would have occurred once in 500 years without global heating, Met Office scientists say

The UK had its second-hottest year on record in 2023, according to provisional data from the Met Office, as the climate crisis continued to deliver elevated temperatures.

Such a warm year would have occurred only once in 500 years without human-caused global heating, the scientists said. The heat peaked in June and September, both record hot months in a series dating back to 1884. The UK’s 10 warmest years have all occurred since 2003.

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UK weather: Storm Henk hits parts of south as Met Office issues warning

Damage to buildings and floods likely as first named storm of 2024 sweeps across southern Britain

Commuters faced misery on roads and rail networks and people were told to prepare for flooding as the first named storm of 2024 – Henk – swept across parts of southern Britain, bringing winds of up to 80mph (128km/h).

About 2,000 homes in Cornwall experienced power cuts and trees were brought down by the wind. People were asked to stay away from coastal areas hit by the storm and in some areas police advised people not to travel unless absolutely necessary.

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UK factory output lower than expected after fall in domestic and export orders

Higher borrowing costs and slump in demand contribute to 17th consecutive month of contraction

Britain’s factories started the year on a weaker footing after 17 consecutive months of contraction, as higher borrowing costs and a slump in demand took their toll.

Factory output fell by more than expected in December after a drop in orders from domestic and export clients, according to the latest snapshot from S&P Global and the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply.

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Man accused of murdering Sheffield ‘Good Samaritan’ to face trial in July

Hassan Jhangur remanded in custody by Sheffield crown court on charges of murdering Chris Marriott and five counts of attempted murder

A 23-year-old man accused of murdering a “Good Samaritan”, who was hit by a car in Sheffield last week while trying to help a stranger, will face trial later this year.

Chris Marriott, 46, had been trying to help a woman he saw unconscious in the street during a disturbance in the Burngreave area of Sheffield on 27 December, police have said.

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Oil prices rise after Iran rejects calls to end support for Houthi Red Sea attacks

Brent crude is up 2% to $78.77 a barrel as hopes of strong demand in China also push up prices

Oil prices have risen sharply after Iran rejected calls to end support for attacks by Houthi rebels on vessels in the Red Sea and sent a warship to the key trading route.

In the first trading session of the new year, Brent crude rose $1.73, or more than 2%, to $78.77 a barrel on Tuesday, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $73.36 a barrel, up $1.71, or 2.4%.

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NHS bosses fear for patient safety during six-day junior doctor strike

Hospital bosses worry BMA will not honour agreement to return junior doctors to work in event of major incident

NHS bosses fear patient safety could be compromised during this week’s junior doctors strikes if medics do not honour an agreement to abandon picket lines if hospitals become overwhelmed during the winter crisis.

Hospital bosses can ask the British Medical Association (BMA) to allow junior doctors to return to work to help if an emergency arises during their six-day strike starting on Wednesday.

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Teenager fatally stabbed in London named as Harry Pitman

A 16-year-old boy was arrested on suspicion of murder at scene of stabbing on Primrose Hill

A 16-year-old boy stabbed to death as he waited to watch the fireworks on London’s Primrose Hill just before midnight on New Year’s Eve has been named as Harry Pitman.

Onlookers described ambulances racing to the scene and paramedics performing CPR on the schoolboy but, despite their efforts, he could not be saved.

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NHS nurses suffering shocking violence from patients, senior nurse warns

Crisis in NHS contributing to nurses being spat at and punched, leading some to leave the profession, Prof Nicola Ranger says

Nurses are being put in increasing danger from shocking levels of violence and aggression by patients, a senior nursing leader has warned.

Prof Nicola Ranger, the Royal College of Nursing’s (RCN) director of nursing, said the crisis in the NHS had fuelled bad behaviour by patients frustrated by worsening delays for treatment since the Covid pandemic.

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‘Widely wet’ start to new year expected with flood warnings across UK

Met Office issues yellow warnings, as heavy rain expected in Wales and strong winds across England

A “widely wet” start to the new year is expected for many areas, with heavy rainfall predicted for parts of the UK and dozens of flood warnings in place.

The Met Office has issued yellow weather warnings for rain and wind for large parts of England and Wales on Tuesday. The heaviest rain is more likely across parts of Wales, the Midlands towards eastern England and Yorkshire while gusts could reach 60mph in coastal areas or 40 to 50mph elsewhere, the forecaster said.

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Divorces delayed by cost of living crisis, research finds

Financial pressures have led to postponement of 19% of divorces, involving 270,000 couples, Legal & General claims

The start of the new year is often boom time for divorce lawyers, but 2024 may be different as new research shows the cost of living crisis has delayed more than 270,000 couples from splitting.

Financial pressures delayed 19% of divorces, researchers at Legal & General found. The impact has been particularly pronounced since 2020, with income concerns, cost of living pressures and the price of divorce all cited as reasons to postpone the split.

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Why Labour needs to decide whether to break the consensus on Israel

Airstrikes against Houthi rebels and the prospect of a year-long Gaza conflict will test cross-party thinking at Westminster

Two developments in the past 48 hours could test the cross-party consensus in Westminster on the conflict between Israel and Hamas: the signal sent by the Ministry of Defence that it is prepared to join the US in launching airstrikes against Houthi sites in Yemen, and statements by the Israeli political and military leadership that the war may take months or even a whole year to complete.

Labour has so far largely concurred with UK government policy, which in turn has largely shadowed thinking inside the White House.

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Meet the Outlaw escaping from prisons in protest against indefinite detention

Joe Outlaw is one of 2,921 inmates still on IPP sentences, which were abolished in 2012

It should be impossible to escape from a high-security prison, doubly so for prisoners held on the segregation unit, who are allowed only to exercise in a caged yard.

But on 21 June, the summer solstice and the hottest day of the year at that point, Joe Outlaw managed to break through the cage and get on to the roof of HMP Frankland, a Durham prison dubbed “Monster mansion” due to many of its inmates being convicted murderers, terrorists and sex offenders.

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