Sunak warned unfunded axing of national insurance would harm services

Economists say making the policy an election pledge could cost £40bn, which is badly needed for health, education and elsewhere

Rishi Sunak has been warned against fighting an election on an unfunded plan to abolish employee national insurance amid projections the move could blow a £40bn hole in the public finances.

As the pre-election battle on the economy between the Conservatives and Labour intensified, the prime minister was on Thursday under mounting pressure to explain how the measure could be afforded while public services were crumbling.

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Treasury disbanded non-dom tax policy unit weeks before budget, sources say

Exclusive: Officials fear government is ill-prepared for lobbying from wealth advisory industry after taxation overhaul

The Treasury disbanded a unit tasked with offshore and non-dom tax policy weeks before announcing significant changes in the budget to the way foreign residents are taxed, sources have said.

The unit, which comprised technical experts on offshore tax issues, included specialists on non-dom policy. These officials would, according. to the sources, have been expected to help manage the implementation of a replacement for non-dom status as outlined by the chancellor this week.

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Budget 2024 live: Jeremy Hunt cuts national insurance, abolishes non-dom status and raises child benefit threshold

NI cut of 2p announced, along with new tax on vapes, end of tax relief for holiday lettings and more cash for NHS IT system

Jeremy Hunt is expected to extend the windfall tax on energy companies in the budget to help fund his national insurance cut. Extending the windfall tax is a Labour proposal that the Tories used to dismiss, and, according to a Daily Telegraph story, Douglas Ross, the Scottish Conservative leader, is so angry about the move that colleagues thought he might resign. Ross is MP for Moray, in the north-east of Scotland, and he is worried that the potential impact on the oil and gas industry in Scotland will cost the party votes.

In their story, Nick Gutteridge, Dominic Penna and Simon Johnson say Ross had a row with Rishi Sunak about this at a reception on Sunday night. They report:

The leader of the Scottish Conservatives had doggedly sought out Mr Sunak across the crowded, stifling room, determined to give him a piece of his mind about the Treasury’s plans to extend the windfall tax on North Sea oil and gas giants for an extra year.

What followed was a “heated” discussion between the pair, with Mr Ross warning the move would hammer the Tory vote north of the border and the prime minister countering that it was necessary to deliver a National Insurance cut for millions of workers.

Glen O’Hara, professor of modern history at Oxford Brookes University, points to the gaping trade deficit left for Labour in 1964, when outgoing Tory Chancellor Reginald Maudling infamously left a note for his successor reading: “Good luck, old cock … sorry to leave it in such a mess.”

Conservative Chancellor Norman Lamont’s pre-election budget in 1992 introduced a lower rate of income tax which Labour opposed, allowing the Tories to portray them as a “high-tax party.” The Tories unexpectedly went on to win the subsequent poll.

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Budget 2024: Jeremy Hunt announces 2p cut in national insurance

Chancellor also scraps ‘non-dom’ tax breaks and slashes capital gains on property in pre-election gambit

Jeremy Hunt has announced a 2p national insurance cut in his budget as a pre-election gambit to revive flatlining opinion poll ratings and reboot Britain’s economy from recession.

In what could be the last major economic intervention before voters go to the polls, the chancellor said the government was making progress on its economic priorities and could now help hard-pressed families by permanently lowering certain taxes.

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Clare Lombardelli named deputy governor of Bank of England

Ex-Treasury official and adviser to David Cameron will replace Ben Broadbent, making MPC majority female for first time

The Bank of England’s interest-rate-setting committee is set to become majority female for the first time, after the appointment of a former key adviser to David Cameron and George Osborne as one of its deputy governors.

Clare Lombardelli, the chief economist at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), will sit on the nine-member monetary policy committee (MPC) when she joins as the Bank’s next deputy governor for monetary policy.

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Put aside differences to focus on growth across UK, Ed Balls tells politicians

Former shadow chancellor is one of the authors of a new academic paper on how to bridge the regional divide

Britain needs a 20-year cross-party consensus to level up the economy and unleash the untapped potential of regions outside London and the south-east, the former Labour shadow chancellor Ed Balls has said.

Balls, one of five co-authors of an academic paper on bridging the UK’s regional divide, said it was vital that Labour and Conservative politicians put aside their differences in order to embed necessary funding and governance reforms.

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Jeremy Hunt ‘considering spending cuts’ to fund pre-election tax giveaway

Treasury looking at reducing projected rise in public spending from 2025, FT reports citing insiders

Jeremy Hunt is considering making billions of pounds of spending cuts to fund pre-election tax cuts in the next budget, according to a report.

The chancellor is looking at “further spending restraint” after 2025 if official economic forecasts suggest he does not have enough headroom to pay for “smart tax cuts”, the Financial Times reported, citing Treasury insiders.

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Even a technical recession is a headache for Rishi Sunak

Governments try to generate a feelgood factor before an election. The UK has the opposite: a feel-bad factor

In the end it wasn’t really that close. The UK economy is now technically in recession after contracting by 0.3% in the final three months of 2023.

The official data brings to an end a miserable year for the UK. Growth in 2023 as a whole was just 0.1% – the weakest performance outside the Covid pandemic year of 2020 since 2009.

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UK pay growth slows less than expected as workers bid up wages

December figures prompt predictions Bank of England may cut interest rates later than previously expected

Pay growth slowed less than expected in December, prompting predictions the Bank of England could start cutting interest rates later than previously expected.

Earnings growth, excluding bonuses, fell only modestly to 6.2% in October to December 2023 from a revised 6.7% in the previous three months, as workers continued to bid up their wages amid skills shortages and a record number of people with long-term sickness.

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CBI tells Jeremy Hunt to focus on green investment instead of tax cuts in budget

Lobby group joins calls for chancellor to resist pre-election giveaways next month and spend on projects to boost economy

A leading business lobby group has urged Jeremy Hunt to resist calls for large-scale tax cuts in his budget next month, saying the government needs to avoid “short-termism” and devote spending to projects that boost the economy.

Adding its voice to a growing clamour for green investment, the Confederation of British Industry said pre-election giveaways at the budget should be kept to a minimum to allow for a surge in spending to achieve net zero.

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Labour’s mixed messages on £28bn green pledge put it in worst of all worlds

Tories watch on delighted as Starmer repeats figure while the shadow Treasury team distance themselves

For weeks, Labour officials have been locked in meetings as they try to figure out how to present Westminster’s worst kept-secret: Keir Starmer’s slow U-turn away from his pledge to spend £28bn a year on the green economy.

Publicly, senior party figures insist that nothing has changed since last summer, when the shadow chancellor, Rachel Reeves, said the party would spend £28bn only if the party’s strict fiscal rules allowed.

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Jeremy Hunt suggests tax cuts in budget won’t match last year’s £20bn giveaway – UK politics live

The chancellor said he wanted to manage people’s expectations ahead of the spring budget

The UK needs a government guided by clear purpose, Reeves says.

Labour has set out five missions. But they are all tied to the economic mission – to raise growth.

These are the symptoms of economic decline.

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Jeremy Hunt claims Nigel Lawson’s mantle as he teases tax cuts

Hunt draws comparisons with Thatcher’s tax-slashing chancellor as he claims UK is ready for economic boom

Jeremy Hunt has compared himself to former tax-cutting chancellor Nigel Lawson, as he joined Rishi Sunak in teasing further potential cuts in the spring budget.

Writing in the Mail on Sunday, the chancellor drew comparisons with the late Lawson, who was known for slashing personal taxation while serving in the Thatcher government.

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US inflation ticked up to 3.4% in December as policymakers mull rate cuts

Consumer price index exceeds economists’ expectations as Fed weighs when to start cutting borrowing costs

Inflation ticked higher in the United States last month as the Federal Reserve weighs the latest stage of its battle against price growth.

The headline consumer price index increased at an annual pace of 3.4% in December, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, up from 3.1% in the previous month, and exceeding economists’ expectations of about 3.2%.

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Adopting rightwing policies ‘does not help centre-left win votes’

Study of European electoral data suggests social democratic parties alienate supporters by moving towards the political centre

Adopting rightwing policies on issues such as immigration and the economy does not help centre-left parties win votes, according to new analysis of European electoral and polling data.

Faced with a 20-year decline in their vote share, accompanied by rising support for the right, far right and sometimes the far left, social democratic parties across Europe have increasingly sought salvation by moving towards the political centre.

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Sunak says he wants to reduce workers’ taxes this year and may cut benefits

PM sets up possibility of income tax coming down in March and says control of welfare is a priority

Rishi Sunak has said he wants to cut taxes for working people further this year, possibly cutting welfare payments to fund it.

The prime minister said on Sunday his priority before the budget in March would be further tax cuts, which he said would entail stricter controls on public spending and benefits.

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Rishi Sunak says his ‘working assumption’ is that general election will take place in second half of 2024 – UK politics live

PM appears to rule out spring election after recent speculation it could be held in May

Starmer says being in opposition is frustrating, and he accuses the Tories of treating it as performance art.

He is now on the passage about his career in public service that was posted earlier. See 9.12am.

If you’ve been breaking your back to keep trading, steering your business through the pandemic, the cost-of-living crisis, the challenge of Brexit and the chaos of Westminster.

If you’ve been serving our country, whether in scrubs or the uniform of your regiment and what you want now is a politics that serves you, then make no mistake - this is your year.

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Labour should make UK leader in wellbeing-informed policy, says peer

Call by economics of happiness expert Richard Layard comes as research agency set up under David Cameron is to be axed in Whitehall cuts

A Labour government should make the UK the world’s first country to make policy based on its impact on wellbeing as well as the economy, one of the world’s leading experts on the economics of happiness has said.

With Keir Starmer in No 10, Downing Street should require Whitehall departments to appraise the potential impact on citizens’ wellbeing when they make funding bids, Richard Layard said. The next chancellor should announce measures of happiness and misery alongside GDP in their annual budget statements, he added.

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‘How can such a tiny woman drive a big truck?’ Japan’s labour shortage forces it to rethink gender stereotypes

Freight and logistics sector is turning to women to fill gap as demand for drivers grows alongside cap on overtime

When Mayumi Watanabe tells people what she does for a living, most struggle to hide their surprise, and not just because of her diminutive stature. As a truck driver with 23 years behind the wheel, she is one of a small but growing number of women coming to the rescue of an industry that is the beating heart of Japan’s economy.

“I can see they’re thinking, ‘How can such a tiny woman drive a big truck?’ ” Watanabe, who is 152cm (5ft) tall, told the Observer as she prepared for the busy run-up to the end of the year. “But I’ve always loved cars, so it felt natural to want to be a truck driver.”

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Jeremy Hunt fuels election speculation as 6 March spring budget announced

Chancellor has asked the OBR to prepare forecasts for the economy and public finances to be presented to parliament

Jeremy Hunt has announced that a spring budget expected to feature a host of tax cuts will be held on 6 March, fuelling speculation over an early general election.

While government sources insisted nothing should be read into the date, it is the earliest the set-piece fiscal event has been held in 13 years of Conservative government – apart from 2021 when the Treasury was trying to kickstart the economy after Covid.

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