Markets brace for sharpest rise in US interest rates in almost 30 years

Federal Reserve expected to increase cost of borrowing by 0.75 percentage points to curb rising inflation

The world’s financial markets are bracing themselves for the sharpest rise in US interest rates in almost 30 years, as America’s central bank takes action to halt rising inflation.

After days of frenzied investor speculation and signs of growing central bank anxiety, the Federal Reserve is expected to increase the official cost of borrowing by 0.75 percentage points for the first time since 1994.

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Pound falls to lowest level since pandemic crash

Unemployment rise and prospect of new Scottish independence referendum fuel recession fears

The pound has fallen to its lowest level against the dollar since the onset of the Covid pandemic amid growing concern over the strength of the British economy.

Sterling dropped by more than a cent against the dollar to trade below $1.20 on foreign exchange markets for the first time since March 2020, as City traders reacted to mixed figures from the jobs market and the prospect of a fresh referendum on Scottish independence.

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UK pay falls at fastest rate for more than a decade

Inflation and soaring energy bills cause squeeze on living standards, as unemployment rises slightly

Average wages in the UK are falling at the fastest rate for more than a decade as annual pay growth fails to keep pace with the rising cost of living.

The Office for National Statistics said annual growth in regular pay, excluding bonuses, fell by 2.2% in the three months to April after adjusting for its preferred measure of inflation – the biggest fall since November 2011.

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Global markets plunge as Fed mulls biggest rate rise in decades

US investors fret about possible recession as S&P 500 plummets into bear territory and global markets feel aftershocks

Fears about a possible recession have pounded stock markets around the world amid reports that US Federal Reserve could raise interest rates by as much as 0.75% this week – its biggest single hike in borrowing costs for nearly 30 years.

As Wall Street’s benchmark S&P 500 index fell almost 4% on Monday into bear territory, prompting selloffs from Sydney to Shanghai, US central bank policy makers will begin a two-day meeting on Tuesday with expectations mounting that they will lift rates by at least 0.50%.

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CBI warns UK government over Northern Ireland protocol

Impasse over Brexit deal forcing companies to reconsider investing in Britain, says business lobby group

The UK’s foremost business lobby group has warned the government that its threat to override the Northern Ireland protocol is forcing companies to think again about investing in Britain and dragging down the economy.

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) said immediate talks with the EU, rather than political grandstanding, were needed to resolve the impasse over the protocol, which governs post-Brexit trade between the EU, Northern Ireland and Great Britain.

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Sanctions are hitting hard enough to hurt Russia, if not stop it

Analysis: the assault in Ukraine continues, but it seems clear that real damage is being done to Putin’s economy

• Russia-Ukraine war: latest updates

Sanctions have affected many aspects of life in Russia, but one particular shortage has sent the wealthy elite into a spin: beauty clinics are running out of Botox.

The business daily newspaper Kommersant reported this month that Botox imports saw a threefold drop to 74,500 units in the period between January and March compared with the same time last year, after one western manufacturer stopped exporting to Russia.

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Climate crisis is ‘battering our economy’ and driving inflation, new book says

Climatenomics lays out how ‘supply chain disruptions’ has become a euphemism for the effects of climate change

Forget Ukraine, coronavirus, corporate greed and “supply chain issues”, when it comes to inflation the climate crisis is the real, lasting, worry, according to a new book, and one that’s only likely to get worse.

Climatenomics, by former White House reporter and director of Environmental Entrepreneurs (E2) Bob Keefe, is a narrative account of how the climate crisis is fundamentally altering not just the US but global economies.

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UK employers take on workers at slower rate after fall in applicants

Shortage of candidates since January means thousands of vacancies unfilled

UK employers increased the number of new staff in May at the slowest pace since early 2021 after a steep fall in the number of workers responding to job adverts.

After an increase in job switching by workers last year, often to secure higher pay, employers said the shortage of candidates since January meant they were unable to fill thousands of vacancies.

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Global supply chain crisis fuels push to local manufacturing as China’s appeal dims

Analysis: US to examine with fresh urgency easing reliance on China as pandemic disruptions expose global economic vulnerabilities

Everyone has a story to tell about the supply chain problems that have affected the global economy, from the beginning of the pandemic through to the disruption caused by the war in Ukraine. From shortages of Ikea furniture and Christmas turkeys, to the dearth of computer chips that sent the cost of secondhand cars soaring, the dislocation of a once smooth-running system has caused havoc in the global economy.

But while predictions about the easing of bottlenecks have come and gone without any improvement, it has become clear the disruptions of the past two years or more are spurring fundamental changes to the world economy that could have yet more profound impacts on our lives.

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Zero-growth warning for UK economy as petrol prices surge

OECD singles out cost of living crisis as a cause of Britain’s slide down growth league table

Boris Johnson’s attempt to reset his troubled premiership has received a double blow after petrol prices had their biggest daily rise in 17 years and a leading international thinktank said the UK economy would slow to a standstill next year.

Fears that Britain is heading for a prolonged period of 1970s-style stagflation intensified amid fresh evidence of the damaging impact of the war in Ukraine on the cost of living and growth.

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City donations worth £15m raise concerns over influence on UK politics

Total donated to parties by financial firms and individuals tied to the sector over two years, report says

Concerns have been raised over the City’s influence on Westminster, after a report found financial firms and individuals tied to the sector donated £15m to political parties and gave £2m to MPs during the pandemic.

The campaign group Positive Money tallied the gifts, expenses and donations handed to MPs, peers and their parties, as well as the value of income from politicians’ second jobs, saying it contributed to finance’s “oversized influence” on policymaking.

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Thousands of UK workers begin world’s biggest trial of four-day week

With work changed for ever by the pandemic, businesses are testing whether pilot represents a recognition that ‘the new frontier for competition is quality of life’

More than 3,300 workers at 70 UK companies, ranging from a local chippy to large financial firms, start working a four-day week from Monday with no loss of pay in the world’s biggest trial of the new working pattern.

The pilot is running for six months and is being organised by 4 Day Week Global in partnership with the thinktank Autonomy, the 4 Day Week Campaign, and researchers at Cambridge University, Oxford University and Boston College.

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‘Same nightmare week after week’: UK firms fed up with post-Brexit EU trade

Exporters fear Northern Ireland protocol row will spur trade war with Brussels, making an already difficult job even harder

Mark Brearley is still frustrated by Brexit. More than a year from Britain’s formal withdrawal from the EU, on terms agreed by Boris Johnson’s government, exporting the goods his company produces hasn’t got any easier for the London-based manufacturer.

Describing it as “the same nightmare week after week”, he says: “A lot more time is spent with things going wrong. The EU really feels like the hardest place in the world to ship things to sometimes.”

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Most small firms fear long-term fallout from UK’s cost of living crisis

Half worry rocketing prices will cut spending, while three in four fear long-term damage to businesses

Three-quarters of small and medium-sized companies are worried about the long-term impact the cost of living crisis, soaring energy bills and rising inflation will have on their business, a survey has found.

Just over half (51%) of SMEs said they were concerned that rocketing prices would dent consumer spending, in response to Barclays’ SME Barometer, a quarterly survey of business sentiment conducted for the bank.

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China funnels its overseas aid money into political leaders’ home provinces

Schools, stadiums or airports help the presidents of countries that receive cash from Beijing tighten their grip on power

China’s financing of overseas projects has disproportionately benefited the core political supporters of incumbent presidents or prime ministers of those countries that receive the funds, according to a new book.

During the 20th century, China was mostly known as a recipient of international development finance. Its overseas development programme was modest – roughly on a par with that of Denmark. But over the course of one generation, as Beijing emerged as the world’s second-largest economy, its footprint began to extend far beyond its borders – often in the form of infrastructure initiatives such as Belt and Road.

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Ukraine war weighs heavy as apocalyptic mood shrouds Davos

From a warning of third world war to global stagflation or depression, gathering is unsurprisingly sombre

The impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine dominated a delayed and slimmed-down World Economic Forum this year but it took George Soros to articulate what many of those making the trip to the Swiss Alps had been thinking.

Davos would not be Davos without a broadside from the 91-year-old philanthropist and former speculator, but the conflict in eastern Europe prompted his most apocalyptic warning yet.

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Royal Mail ‘at crossroads’ as pandemic parcel boom fades

Postal service says it needs to adapt to post-Covid business world amid near-9% drop in profits and union pay battle

Royal Mail has warned that the company is at a “crossroads” and needs to urgently adapt to the post-pandemic environment as parcel deliveries, originally boosted by Covid lockdowns, continue to wane.

It piles further pressure on the postal company, as it struggles to reach a pay deal with unionised staff who are pushing for an inflation-based pay rise as the cost of living soars.

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Helping cash-strapped Britons won’t add to inflation, says CBI

Chief of business association calls for stimulus that aids ‘hardest hit’ with rising food and fuel bills

Tackling rising food and fuel bills will not add to inflation and people who are “the hardest hit” need help now, the head of the UK’s biggest business association has warned.

Official figures published on Wednesday revealed UK inflation soared to 9% in April – its highest level for more than 40 years – as the rising cost of gas and electricity pushed household energy bills to record levels.

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Ukraine war has stoked global food crisis that could last years, says UN

Shortages of grain and fertiliser could cause ‘mass hunger and famine, says chief, as World Bank pledges another $12bn to ease shortfall

The United Nations has warned that the war in Ukraine has helped to stoke a global food crisis that could last years if it goes unchecked, as the World Bank announced an additional $12bn in funding to mitigate its “devastating effects”.

UN secretary general António Guterres said shortages of grain and fertiliser caused by the war, warming temperatures and pandemic-driven supply problems threaten to “tip tens of millions of people over the edge into food insecurity”, as financial markets saw share prices fall heavily again on fears of inflation and a worldwide recession.

Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, used his nightly address to claim that Russia’s use of laser weapons to down drones to save stocks of conventional missiles “indicates the complete failure of the invasion” and that mistakes had been made at the highest level. He compared their use to propaganda efforts by Nazi Germany promoting a “wunderwaffe” or “wonder weapon”. Russia has claimed it is using a new generation of laser weapons to burn up drones.

Zelenskiy said he had signed a decree to extend martial law by 90 days in order to allow further time to expel invasion forces. The decree needs to be approved by parliament.

Sweden and Finland have formally submitted their applications to join Nato but Turkey blocked an early move to fast-track the Nordic countries’ requests, demanding they extradite “terrorists” and that the alliance respect its concerns. US president Joe Biden said Washington would in the meantime work with Finland and Sweden in the event of the “threat of aggression”.

The US embassy in Kyiv has resumed operations, the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, said after nearly three months of closure. A small number of diplomats will return initially to staff the embassy, according to a spokesperson.

G7 finance minister will meet in Brussels on Thursday hoping to find a solution for Kyiv’s budget troubles as the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to roil the global economy. The US has already pledged a $40bn aid package to fill Kyiv’s coffers and military stores.

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Why does the UK have the highest inflation in the G7?

Analysis: UK among hardest-hit countries thanks to perfect storm of war in Ukraine, Covid and Brexit

Britain’s inflation rate has soared to the highest level since the early 1980s. After a record increase in gas and electricity bills in April, inflation is the highest in the G7. Having reached 9% last month, it is above the 8.3% rate in the US and Germany’s reading of 7.4%. Japan, an economy characterised by low inflation for decades thanks to an ageing population, has the lowest rate at 1.2%.

Here are some of the reasons why prices are rising faster in the UK than in other major economies.

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