Franco-German plan for European recovery will face compromises

Macron-Merkel plan to borrow on behalf of EU to help worst-hit countries is already being challenged by ‘frugal four’

When France and Germany announced a plan to raise €500bn (£448bn) on financial markets to fund a European coronavirus recovery plan, leaders sought to underscore the magnitude of the moment.

The French president, Emmanuel Macron, hailed “a real change of philosophy”, with the plan for the European commission to borrow money on behalf of the entire EU and issue grants to the most stricken industries and regions. Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, declared: “The nation state has no future standing alone,” and the German finance minister, Olaf Scholz, evoked the legacy of the US founding father Alexander Hamilton, who helped to transform the US into a true political unit with his scheme for the national government to take on debts accrued by individual states.

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Dawn of Asian century puts pressure on EU to choose sides, says top diplomat

EU foreign affairs chief says end of US-led global system may have arrived and Europe needs robust strategy for China

The Asian century may have arrived marking the end of a US-led global system, the EU’s foreign affairs chief has said amid a growing discussion in Europe on how to weave a path between China and the US.

“Analysts have long talked about the end of an American-led system and the arrival of an Asian century. This is now happening in front of our eyes,” Josep Borrell told a group of German diplomats on Monday, adding that the coronavirus pandemic could be seen as a turning point and that the “pressure to choose sides is growing”.

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‘Pink-collar recession’: how the Covid-19 crisis could set back a generation of women

The unique nature of the pandemic means the economic downturn could impact women for decades

Rebecca Wilkie is used to running a budget. The single mother of two daughters knows what it is to keep one eye on the bank balance. After being stood down as a full-time Qantas flight attendant at the end of March, however, the budget is tighter still. “Life was a struggle for us before the pandemic, to be honest,” she says.

She is managing. But catching up on the mortgage payments after the initial relief ends, and paying for the greater utility bills when they come through, worry her. She’s hoping, and expecting, that after 18 years at the airline, a job will be waiting for her once jobkeeper stops and the recovery begins.

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Fed warns more cash is needed as US figures reveal widening inequality

  • Jerome Powell: pace of downturn ‘without modern precedent’
  • Lowest-paid Americans hit hardest by coronavirus pandemic

More evidence of how the coronavirus pandemic is widening income inequality has emerged after the Federal Reserve announced 40% of households earning less than $40,000 included someone who has lost a job since February.

Related: Coronavirus US live: gap grows between White House and experts over safety of reopening

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20m Americans lost their jobs in April in worst month since Great Depression

Unemployment rate rose to 14.7% from just 4.4% in March as the coronavirus pandemic shuttered the global economy

More than 20 million people in the US lost their jobs in April and the unemployment rate more than trebled as the coronavirus pandemic shuttered the world’s largest economy, triggering a financial crisis unseen since the Great Depression.

The Department of Labor announced Friday that the US unemployment rate rose to 14.7% from just 4.4% in March and a near 50-year low of 3.5% in February before the US was hit by the virus.

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UK government begins transatlantic trade talks with Washington

Increasing links with US will aid recovery after coronavirus crisis, says Liz Truss

Liz Truss has claimed bolstering transatlantic trade could help the economy bounce back from the Covid-19 crisis, as negotiations with Washington over a free trade deal begin by video link.

Despite the government’s negotiating objectives for the deal pointing to a modest economic gain of 0.16% of GDP over 15 years, the international trade secretary said she was keen to “make it even easier to do business with our friends across the pond”.

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Global markets recoil as Trump threatens US-China trade war

US president escalates attack on Beijing’s handling of coronavirus pandemic

Donald Trump’s threats to reignite the US-China trade war over coronavirus has triggered another sell-off in global financial markets, as the economic costs of the pandemic continue to mount.

Against a backdrop of rising tension between the world’s two economic superpowers, share prices resumed a downward slide on Friday with the FTSE 100 falling by 144 points, or 2.5%, in London.

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Eurozone downturn and US jobless surge hit markets – business live

The euro area is suffering its worst contraction ever, as the French economy suffers its biggest plunge since the second world war

Britain’s FTSE 100 has just posted its worst day in a month, at the end of its best month in two years.

The blue-chip index has closed down 214 points at 5901, a drop of 3.5%. That wipes out yesterday’s rally, and half of Wednesday’s gains too!

Related: Shell cuts dividend for first time since 1945 amid oil price collapse

Shares in Zoom have dropped over 6% today, after the video-conferencing services admitted it wasn’t quite as popular as thought...

Zoom had initially said it had 300 million daily users, following the surge in remote working. But, it actually has 300 million daily meeting participants.

Zoom shares dropped more than 7% after the company walked back on claims it has 300 million daily active users. $ZM actually reached 300m daily participants, the difference being that meeting participants can be counted more than once.https://t.co/UIVYBP9sqt

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World’s stock markets soar on coronavirus treatment hopes

Investors shrug off US growth gloom after promising data from remdesivir drug trial

Shares have soared on the world’s stock markets after investors shrugged off a deep slump in the US economy and pinned their hopes on a possible breakthrough in treatment for Covid-19.

Despite news that the longest expansion in US history came to an abrupt end in the first three months of 2020, financial markets were buoyed by an update from the American biopharma company Gilead Sciences on its experimental drug remdesivir.

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African Americans bear the brunt of Covid-19’s economic impact

Pandemic spotlights racial disparities, with black workers expected to feature disproportionately in the 26m recent unemployment claims

Just two months ago in the Cabinet Room of the White House, sitting at a table surrounded by a handful of his black supporters, Donald Trump once again praised his job creation record. “Black people right now are having the best, statistically, the best numbers that you’ve ever had, and it’s really an honor,” he said. “Nobody has done more for black people than I have. Nobody has done more.”

That was 27 February and Trump was also still claiming he had done an “incredible job” with the looming coronavirus pandemic. Now the virus has led 26 million Americans to file for unemployment. While the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release unemployment figures broken down by race until the beginning of next month, economists are certain that black Americans are suffering the brunt of Covid-19’s economic impact and will probably suffer the most dramatic consequences of the looming recession.

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Coronavirus has revealed the EU’s fatal flaw: the lack of solidarity | Shahin Vallée

There has been little political will to pool taxes, borrowing and spending to support states worst hit. But it is the only way out

The European summit last week was hailed as a moment of truth. In a recent interview, France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, laid out how European leaders had a rendezvous with history and needed to come together, and show that Europe under duress was able to respond with a common voice and with common means to the Covid-19 crisis. By all measures, this rendezvous with history was missed. European leaders in effect agreed to keep calm and carry on.

They endorsed a roadmap to exit lockdown after each country had in fact already decided and announced their own uncoordinated exit plans. In some countries, such as Germany, deconfinement measures are not a prerogative of the federal government and coordinating between states is challenging enough, let alone coordinating with other countries.

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US faces worst quarter ‘since Great Depression’, but markets rally – business live

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news

Wall Street has opened higher, despite the prospect of a sickening slump in growth this quarter.

The Dow Jones industrial average has gained 109 points, or 0.46%, to 23,884 as a new week’s trading begins.

Alexandra Scaggs of Barrons has spotted that General Motors’ banks pushed it to suspend its dividend (as flagged earlier).

so GM suspended its dividend & share buybacks

one interesting point that's not in the headlines: Banks wanted that as a condition for extending more credit to the company https://t.co/RWCWF4tvea

to me the press release reads like "hey we decided to stop doing these things"

and the filing reads like "our lenders asked us to stop doing these things before they would extend the repayment date on one of our loans" pic.twitter.com/wH5R4aCqDF

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What will coronavirus mean for the British economy?

As the UK faces what may be its worst ever recession, we begin a monthly series exploring the financial shock to business and living standards

One month after a national lockdown was declared in an attempt to limit the spread of Covid-19, it is clear that Britain is heading for the deepest recession in living memory.

Boris Johnson’s government launched unprecedented restrictions on 23 March, telling the British public that they must stay at home and bringing life as the nation knew it to an abrupt halt.

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Top economist: US coronavirus response is like ‘third world’ country

Joseph Stiglitz attacks Donald Trump, saying US on course for second Great Depression

Donald Trump’s botched handling of the Covid-19 crisis has left the US looking like a “third world” country and on course for a second Great Depression, one of the world’s leading economists has warned.

In a withering attack on the president, Joseph Stiglitz said millions of people were turning to food banks, turning up for work due to a lack of sick pay and dying because of health inequalities.

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Just when Italy really needed some unity, the EU failed it – and continues to do so

Even faced with another great depression, wealthier EU countries are resisting action on debt that could ultimately keep the union together

Europe’s leaders are worried – and rightly so. The deadly impact of Covid-19 has resulted in a full-scale health crisis. Evidence of the economic consequences of trying to keep populations safe from coronavirus is starting to emerge. The political ramifications are only starting to be assessed – but they could be profound.

The European Union has found itself in some tight spots over the years, but always found a way of muddling through. It survived the financial crisis and will cope with Brexit. But this time things are a lot more serious.

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Oil sinks again as investors fret about economic cost of Covid-19 – business live

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news

European markets are falling deeper into the red this morning, as coronavirus recession fears swirl.

The FTSE 100 is now down 90 points, or 1.5%, at around 5,700 points - with similar losses in other markets.

The OBR says the UK economy could fall by 35% in the second quarter. Brutal for sure, but it also expects a very sharp bounce back. This puts it in the V-shaped recovery camp, which is an ever-decreasing circle. Charles Evans, the Chicago Fed president, said yesterday the US is in for a very sharp but hopefully short downturn.

Money managers are more pessimistic. According to Bank of America’s latest Global Fund Manager Survey, just 15% see a V-shaped recovery. Over half (52%) see a U-shaped recovery, where the long line along the bottom stretches on for some time, perhaps years. A fifth (22%) see a W-shaped recovery – possibly sparked by a sharp bounce back and second or third wave of infections – and 7% see the dreaded L – a long depression like the 1930s and no real recovery. The biggest tail risk is a second wave of infections, which makes the speed at which you reopen economies key. My bet, for what it’s worth, is WWW.

Newsflash: Global oil demand is expected to fall by a record amount this year -- according to industry experts.

The International Energy Agency has predicted that demand will slump by 29 million barrels per day in April -- to levels last seen in 1995 -- as the Covid-19 lockdown hits demand extremely hard.

“By lowering the peak of the supply overhang and flattening the curve of the build-up in stocks, they help a complex system absorb the worst of this crisis.

“There is no feasible agreement that could cut supply by enough to offset such near-term demand losses. However, the past week’s achievements are a solid start.”

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‘Designed for us to fail’: Floridians upset as unemployment system melts down

Officially 472,000 people in the state filed for unemployment – but the true number is much higher due to the failing system

Lynne Reback developed a rote routine while trying to file for unemployment in her home state of Florida: log into the system, watch the loading bar slowly inch across the screen, get kicked out. Then she would start over.

It took three days for Reback to get her application through Connect, Florida’s online portal for unemployment insurance applications. Though it has been almost a month since her application was submitted, it is still “pending” whenever she checks its status.

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Coronavirus UK live: Lockdown could shrink GDP by 35% and see unemployment rise by 2m, says OBR

Coronavirus lockdown in the UK could last at least another month, as Dominic Raab says country has not passed the peak

From BBC Newsnight’s Lewis Goodall

NEW: OBR publishes an economic scenario (not forecast) for what might happen to the UK economy as a result of #Covid19. It assumes a 3 month lockdown.

Unemployment: ⬆️by 2 million.

GDP (2020) ⬇️ 13% in 2020.

If so, would be the worst economic contraction for a century.

Here is an excerpt from the report published by the Office for Budget Responsibility today looking at what impact the coronavirus lockdown could have on the economy. It says GDP could fall by 35% in the second quarter of the year.

Here is an extract.

In addition to its impact on public health, the coronavirus outbreak will substantially raise public sector net borrowing and debt, primarily reflecting economic disruption. The government’s policy response will also have substantial direct budgetary costs, but the measures should help limit the long-term damage to the economy and public finances – the costs of inaction would certainly have been higher ...

We do not attempt to predict how long the economic lockdown will last – that is a matter for the government, informed by medical advice. But, to illustrate some of the potential fiscal effects, we assume a three-month lockdown due to public health restrictions followed by another three-month period when they are partially lifted. For now, we assume no lasting economic hit.

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Coronavirus live news: US overtakes Italy as country with world’s highest death toll

US death toll tops 19,600. Italy and India extend lockdown, while IHME revises down forecast for number of deaths in the UK

I’m keen to share some powerful photojournalism from around the world with you.

Here’s a photograph of women in Pakistan queuing up to get government aid to support themselves and their families during coronavirus.

The latest figures for France have just been released by the health ministry. They are as follows:

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Coronavirus crisis demands that the G20 give debt relief to sub-Saharan Africa

With the IMF and World Bank spring conference approaching, research underlines need to bail out world’s poorest countries

For more than two years the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have warned that sub-Saharan Africa stands on the verge of a debt crisis. Ever since commodity prices began to fall in 2015, the public finances of nations stretching from Nigeria to Kenya and Chad to South Africa have deteriorated.

If China is the manufacturing centre of the world, Africa is its chief supplier of essential materials, from oil and copper to the rare-earth minerals used in mobile phones. As China’s manufacturing waned in the middle of the last decade, so did the crucial foreign earnings that keep African nations afloat.

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