Farage claims chance he could be PM within four years is up to 25% – UK politics live

Reform UK leader, who is in the US for Trump’s inauguration, says early election is ‘not impossible’

Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, thinks that his chances of becoming PM before Donald Trump leaves the White House in January could be as high as 25%. He made the comment in an interview with Dan Walker for 5 News being broadcast tonight. Farage told Walker he did genuinely believe he could be the next PM. And this is what he said when he was asked if that could happen during Trump’s presidency.

Look, Labour have got a whopping great big majority. The only thing that really brings an early election is if we get an economic meltdown.

Now, that is not impossible for two reasons. One, the level of indebtedness is worse than it was in 2008 when we had the big meltdowns. And I think we’ve lived through rocketing stock markets for years. That can’t go on.

For Reform to replace the Tories three things would need to happen. First they would need to sustain their current momentum well into 2025, then there would need to be a tipping point moment when donors, right-wing media and a number of Tory MPs decided to shift support en masse, and then they would have to win more seats in the 2028/2029 election.

The first of these seems fairly likely. The enthusiasm of Reform’s voter base, the weakness of the Tory party, and the media need for narrative all point the same way. The biggest barrier is probably Farage’s ability to manage the negative associations caused by Musk (who is not at all popular in the UK).

It may take a long time but if - and it is a big if - Reform remain a major player in British politics, under the voting system we have, it will ultimately lead to the end of the Tory party as we know it.

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Trump ally says Peter Mandelson’s US ambassador job will not be blocked

Newspapers had reported that new president might veto UK pick, as ministers brace for a turbulent four years

Donald Trump will not block the appointment of Peter Mandelson as British ambassador to the US, according to a London-based ally of the president-elect, as ministers brace for a turbulent four years of British-American relations.

Greg Swenson, the head of the UK branch of Republicans Overseas, told the BBC on Sunday he did not believe Trump would prevent the Labour peer from taking up his post in Washington, despite reports to the contrary.

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Labour pledges to make Sunday trains as reliable as weekday services

Government plans to renationalise railways will establish new public body to improve the network

Sunday train services will be as reliable as those on weekdays under plans to renationalise the railways, the new transport secretary will claim in a keynote speech on Monday.

Issuing a series of pledges on which the government will be judged by millions of passengers – as well as its political opponents – Heidi Alexander will cite the creation of a network “where Sunday services are as ­reliable as Monday’s” as one of her key priorities.

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Police fear ‘rightwing driven’ reaction to grooming gangs will harm victims

Senior officers say fraction of child abuse cases relate to gangs and funding could be diverted from current cases

Senior police officers fear that government pressure to reinvestigate closed historic cases of gang grooming could make it harder to catch those targeting children today.

The government on Thursday announced more reviews of past cases and also that victims, whose cases did not end in prosecutions, will be given a new right of appeal to have their investigations reopened.

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Minister denies Labour ‘governing by social media’ after new grooming gangs review ordered – UK politics live

Lisa Nandy defends Yvette Cooper’s decision to order urgent review following pressure driven by Elon Musk

A ban on UK employers using non-disclosure agreements to hush up cases of sexual misconduct and harassment is being considered as part of the government’s overhaul of employment rights.

After a slew of high-profile cases and years of campaigning by activists, it is understood that ministers are prepared to back a change in the law to prohibit the misuse of gagging clauses.

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Labour considering ban on use of NDAs to hush up sexual misconduct at work

Ministers prepared to back change in law to prohibit misuse of gagging clauses by employers, it is understood

A ban on UK employers using non-disclosure agreements to hush up cases of sexual misconduct and harassment is being considered as part of the government’s overhaul of employment rights.

After a slew of high-profile cases and years of campaigning by activists, it is understood that ministers are prepared to back a change in the law to prohibit the misuse of gagging clauses.

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Labour’s pivot on grooming gangs may not be enough to silence critics

Yvette Cooper’s unveiling of a rapid review of evidence, after week of arguments against new inquiry, has already been called inadequate

When is a U-turn not officially a U-turn? When it is less a change of direction than one of speed and extent. And on those terms, the announcement of a review into grooming gangs is Keir Starmer’s second such policy shuffle this week alone.

On Tuesday, the Treasury minister, Tulip Siddiq, departed over her links to much-disputed claims of family corruption centred on her aunt, the former president of Bangladesh. Downing Street had insisted for days that the facts must first be established.

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Starmer accuses Tories of being ‘economic vandals’ at PMQs as Badenoch challenges him to rule out tax rises – UK politics live

Prime minister says global economy experiencing volatility after Conservative leader attacks him over economy

The Mauritian government said talks will continue on the Chagos Islands deal, with attorney general Gavin Glover set to return to the UK for further negotiations, PA Media reports.

A statement issued following a meeting of prime minister Navin Ramgoolam’s cabinet said:

The commitment and resolve of Mauritius to reach an agreement and end this long battle for the sovereignty of Mauritius over the Chagos Archipelago remains unshaken.

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Who is Tulip Siddiq, niece of deposed Bangladeshi PM who quit Treasury role?

Former Labour minister’s family background is indelibly bound up with Bangladesh

When Keir Starmer became the Labour leader in 2020, Tulip Siddiq described him in her local paper as a “good friend through thick and thin”.

On Tuesday, she found out where the limits of that friendship lay after the prime minister accepted her resignation from the government after weeks of revelations about Siddiq’s closeness to her aunt, the former prime minister of Bangladesh.

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Giving Tulip Siddiq anti-corruption job seen by insiders as own goal

Some in No 10 wish they had thought a bit more about how it looked before giving job to niece of ousted Bangladesh PM

The warning signs were always there. When a photo of Tulip Siddiq standing alongside Vladimir Putin and her aunt, the now ousted leader of Bangladesh, emerged in 2015, alarm bells rang within the Labour party.

At the time, Siddiq was the Labour candidate for the marginal seat of Hampstead and Kilburn. Yet she brushed aside concerns over her presence at the signing of a billion-dollar arms deal and nuclear power project at the Kremlin two years earlier.

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Bangladesh files criminal case against UK minister Tulip Siddiq

MP accused of misusing her position to gain influence and illegally acquire land with her aunt Sheikh Hasina

Authorities in Bangladesh have filed a criminal case against the UK Treasury minister Tulip Siddiq, accusing her of misusing her position as an MP to gain influence and illegally acquire land with her aunt the ousted prime minister Sheikh Hasina.

Siddiq has faced mounting calls to resign over her links to Hasina, who was toppled in August after mass protests across Bangladesh and is facing charges of corruption and crimes against humanity.

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Starmer claims AI could led to ‘golden age of public service reform’, even making services ‘feel more human’ – UK politics live

Government publishes AI opportunities action plan amid backdrop of economic uncertainty in UK

In an interview with Times Radio, Pat McFadden, the Cabinet Office minister, rejected suggestions that the government should try to halt the rollout of AI because of the potential impact on jobs. That would be like pressing the “pause button” on history, he said.

At what point in history would you have us press the pause button? This is the story of historical and economic change. And we’re on the threshold of another huge one. And the country’s got to seize the opportunities from this.

If we, again, follow the logic of your questioning, just try to press the pause button in previous history, then we’d never have become an industrialised country in the first place.

As the prime minister has made clear, AI is no longer an if, or even a when; it is here, and it is urgent. The opportunities for Britain’s economy and our public services are too great for us to ignore. This has to be the government’s priority.

Public sector workers are overwhelmed and overworked, with many choosing to leave rather than try to make a broken system work. The result is a doom loop of growing backlogs, worsening outcomes and rising failure demand. The real impact of this is felt not just by those workers, but by the British public who can’t get doctors’ appointments, the benefits they are entitled to, and the high-quality education they and their children deserve.

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UK government to crack down on MPs earning extra cash from media firms

Jacob Rees-Mogg and Nigel Farage are among those who have earned large sums from broadcasters, but a tightening of rules on MPs’ outside interests is being considered

MPs would no longer be able to rake in huge sums that can see them more than double their ­parliamentary ­salaries by signing contracts with media outlets, under plans being ­considered by ministers.

The Observer has been told that ­talks on further ­tightening rules on MPs’ ­outside interests, ­including media contracts, will be started by leader of the House of Commons, Lucy Powell, at a hearing of the all-party standards committee on Tuesday.

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Tech giants told UK online safety laws ‘not up for negotiation’

Senior cabinet minister promises not to dilute new measures despite Zuckerberg’s attacks on countries ‘censoring’ content

Britain’s new laws to boost safety and tackle hate speech online are “not up for negotiation”, a senior government minister has warned, after Meta founder Mark Zuckerberg vowed to join Donald Trump to pressure countries they regard as “censoring” content.

In an interview with the Observer, Peter Kyle, the technology secretary, said that the recent laws designed to make online platforms safer for children and vulnerable people would never be diluted to help the government woo big tech companies to the UK in its defining pursuit for economic growth.

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Starmer’s top aide made low-key Brussels trip as No 10’s EU reset efforts continue

Morgan McSweeney met EU counterparts before Christmas as Downing Street poised to hire new foreign adviser

Keir Starmer’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, made a below-the-radar trip to Brussels last month, as No 10 prepares to appoint its own foreign affairs adviser to help bolster the Downing Street policy operation.

As the UK’s attempts at a “reset” with the EU continue behind closed doors, No 10’s most senior aide made the trip to meet counterparts in Brussels before Christmas.

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David Lammy says Trump’s rhetoric can be ‘destabilising’ but threat to invade Greenland won’t happen – UK politics live

Foreign secretary says Trump’s comments should be understood as reflection of his concerns about Arctic security

Good morning. For the first time in six months, David Lammy, the foreign secretary, was put up by No 10 to do the morning broadcast interview round – ahead of a speech he is giving later. At PMQs yesterday, perhaps surprisingly, Keir Starmer was not asked about Donald Trump’s suggestion that he might invade Greenland, an autonomous territory that belongs to Denmark. The French and German governments have both condemned Trump’s comments. But, in an interview with the Today programme, Lammy was rather more diplomatic.

Lammy said that, although Trump’s language could be “destabilising”, he did not always do what he threatened. Asked about Trump’s comments, Lammy said:

I think that we know from Donald Trump’s first term that the intensity of his rhetoric, and the unpredictability sometimes of what he says, can be destabilising. He did it with Nato. But in fact, in practice, he sent more troops to Europe under his administration. He sent the first Javelins [anti-tank weapons] and weapons to Ukraine under his administration.

Lammy said that Trump would not use military force to seize Greenland – despite suggesting he might. Asked if the UK should be following France and Germany in saying this would be unacceptable, Lammy replied:

Let’s be serious … It’s not going to happen because no Nato allies have gone to war since the birth of Nato which Ernest Bevin, my great predecessor, was part of.

Lammy said Trump’s comments should be understood as reflection of his concerns about Arctic security. He explained:

Here, I suspect on Greenland, what he’s targeting is his concerns about Russia and China in the Arctic, his concerns about national economic security. He recognises, I’m sure, that in the end, Greenland today is a Kingdom of Denmark. There is a debate in Greenland about their own self determination. But behind it, I think, are his concerns about the Arctic. Of course, the US has troops and a base on Greenland. So it has got a stake in that Arctic region.

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MPs call for greater criticism of Israel’s policies over Gaza – UK politics live

Palestinians trapped in a ‘doom loop of hell’, MPs told

At the end of last week Robert Jenrick, the shadow justice secretary and runner-up in last year’s Tory leadership contest, said the child abuse grooming scandal started with “mass migration” and “importing hundreds of thousands of people from alien cultures, who possess medieval attitudes towards women”. In response Samuel Kasumu, a former Tory adviser on race issues, said that comments like that could lead to people being killed, while Kemi Badenoch defended her colleague.

In an inteview on the Today programme this morning, asked if Kasumu’s comments made him reconsider his views, Jenrick replied:

That’s complete nonsense. MPs have been killed in this country in recent times by a jihadist and by a neo-Nazi. They were killed because of the views of those individuals, not what anything an MP has said. We have to fight extremism in this country, wherever we find it, and you fight that by standing up to the extremists, you don’t fight it by shying away, by turning a blind eye, by looking the other way.

I’m not going to tiptoe around this issue. Millions of people in our country are listening to your programme this morning, and they are appalled by what is happening to young girls, and they are shocked that there might be girls in that situation today. We have to stop this.

I think some people who come from that country do. I’m not saying everybody.

NR: Did Sajid Javid’s family [the former Tory chancellor] come with a medieval culture to this county?

RJ: I’m saying some people do.

Robert Jenrick’s attempt to exploit this appalling scandal for his own political gain is completely shameless. He didn’t lift a finger to help the victims when a minister, now he’s jumping on the bandwagon and acting like a pound shop Farage.

Kemi Badenoch should sack him as shadow justice secretary and condemn his divisive comments, instead of letting him run a leadership campaign under her nose.

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Labour to make taking intimate images without consent a criminal offence

Ministers say predators could face two years in jail, and plan to include creating sexually explicit deepfakes in bill

Predators who take intimate images of unwitting victims or install cameras to do so could face up to two years’ in jail under plans drawn up by Labour.

Ministers have also confirmed that they plan to create a new offence for those who create sexually explicit deepfake images.

Taking or recording an intimate photograph or film without consent.

Taking or recording an intimate photograph or film without consent and with intent to cause alarm, distress, or humiliation.

Taking or recording an intimate photograph or film without consent or reasonable belief in it, and for the purpose of the sexual gratification of oneself or another.

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UK cut health aid to vulnerable nations while hiring their nurses, research finds

Royal College of Nursing says Labour has a duty to fix health ‘double whammy’ by raising aid and funding for UK nursing

The UK cut health aid to some of the world’s vulnerable countries at the same time as recruiting thousands of their nurses, in a “double whammy” for fragile health systems, new analysis has found.

The Royal College of Nursing (RCN), which carried out the research, said Labour had a “duty to fix” aid cuts imposed by the previous government, and to work on increasing the UK’s domestic supply of nurses.

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Starmer’s team hope policy blitz will prove that Labour can deliver change

Those close to PM worry voters are running out of patience and want reforms to directly help public

Keir Starmer has at last managed a family holiday, but by next week the Madeira sun may already feel a distant memory as he embarks on a policy blitz that could be crucial in deciding his government’s fortunes over this parliament.

A speech on Monday detailing what No 10 is billing as a “radical” approach to cut NHS waiting lists is expected to be followed by an announcement on crime, as the prime minister faces pressure to make changes that directly and rapidly benefit voters, rather than just promising they are on the way.

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