Category Archives: Inflation

Middle East conflict risks sharp rise in oil prices, says IMF

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In the UK, anxiety over the crisis after Iran’s missile strike on Israel drives down UK shares

An escalating Middle East conflict risks leading to higher oil prices, a reversal of the recent fall in inflation and a puncturing of the optimistic mood in financial markets, the International Monetary Fund has warned.

The Washington-based IMF said it was closely monitoring events in the region after Iran’s missile strike on Israel at the weekend and stressed the possibility that a war between the two countries could lead to higher interest rates.

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Interest rates need to stay higher for longer, says Bank of England policymaker

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Megan Greene dampens hopes of August cut while underlying causes of inflation remain ‘persistent’

Cuts in UK interest rates should be “a way off”, according to a Bank of England policymaker, who has said that inflationary pressures will keep the cost of borrowing higher than financial markets expect.

Megan Greene, a member of the Bank’s nine-member monetary policy committee (MPC), which sets interest rates, said financial markets were betting “in the wrong direction” when they judged how quickly the central bank would make its first rate cut.

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Food inflation in world’s rich nations falls to pre-Ukraine war levels

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Rate declines for 15th consecutive month across 38 OECD countries from 6.3% in January to 5.3% in February

Food prices across the world’s richest nations rose in February at the slowest rate since before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to figures that show easing inflationary pressures on households.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said food inflation declined for the 15th consecutive month across its 38 member countries from 6.3% in January to 5.3% in February.

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Energy bills: standing charges are not standing still

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Despite a 12.3% cut in April’s energy price cap, there is an important fixed element in your bill that is rising again

“Great news! Your unit rates are going down.” E.ON’s letter to customers starts with glad tidings – but, as it soon admits, there is an element of their bills that is set to go up in most parts of the country.

Despite a headline cut of 12.3% in April’s energy price cap, yet again standing charges are rising. In E.ON’s case, on its Next Flex tariff, electricity charges are due to rise from 62.205p to 67.9041p – an increase of just over 9% – while for gas, charges go up from 29.595p to 31.894p (up almost 8%).

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UK government borrowing higher than expected in February

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Borrowing of £8.4bn last month could threaten OBR forecast for £114.1bn deficit for 2023-24 as a whole

Jeremy Hunt has been handed disappointing news from the public finances after government borrowing was higher than expected in February, leaving the national debt at the highest levels since the 1960s.

The Office for National Statistics said public sector net borrowing was £8.4bn in February, £3.4bn less than in the same month a year ago. However, it was higher than any economist expected in a Reuters poll that predicted a deficit of £6bn.

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Next cheers retail sector with bumper profits and talk of falling prices

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Shares hit new high as chain says consumer backdrop is improving and ‘feels like it is now entering a new era’

Next said the prices it charges customers are falling this year, as the fashion and homeware retailer reported bumper profits and said the UK consumer backdrop was improving.

Simon Wolfson, the group’s chief executive, said that it had been “a long time” since the group had started a financial year in such a positive frame of mind after the positive sales and growth results for the year to January.

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Fed leaves interest rates unchanged but signals three cuts this year

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Rates to stay at 25-year high of 5.25% to 5.5% as central bank says ‘inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated’

The Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday that it would leave US interest rates at a 25-year high as it continues to assess their impact on cooling inflation and the wider economy.

After a two-day meeting, the Fed announced rates would be unchanged at 5.25% to 5.5%, where they have been since July. But the Fed signaled it still expects to cut rates three times this year.

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Vinyl records return to UK ‘inflation basket’ for first time since 1992

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Strong sales of Taylor Swift’s 1989 (Taylor’s Version) help format make an impact, as air fryers also join list

Not since Simply Red’s album Stars topped the albums chart in 1992 have vinyl records been included in the basket of goods used to calculate annual inflation, but a rise in sales over recent years has brought them back as a marker of UK shop prices.

The Office for National Statistics said the “resurgence of popularity” in vinyl records meant they should be included among the 744 items used to calculate inflation each month, in its latest annual shake-up of the basket.

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Bitcoin hits new record high above $70,000; US investor ends Currys chase – business live

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Live, rolling coverage of business, economics and financial markets as exchange-traded funds help biggest cryptocurrency rally

The European Commission’s use of Microsoft email and office software broke its own privacy rules, an EU privacy watchdog has ruled.

Microsoft’s software transferred personal data outside the EU, breaching privacy rules, according to the European Data Protection Supervisor.

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Cookie Monster and Ohio senator make odd allies in shrinkflation complaint

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Democratic senator Sherrod Brown endorsed the Sesame Street star’s complaint on products getting smaller as prices remain same

The Ohio Democratic senator Sherrod Brown endorsed a key voice in the American public square – Cookie Monster – in a complaint about shrinkflation.

“Me hate shrinkflation!” the Sesame Street character posted on social media on Monday, referring to an economic phenomenon Merriam-Webster defines as “the practice of reducing a product’s amount or volume per unit while continuing to offer it at the same price”.

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Deal allows police to march in parade – as it happened

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This blog is now closed.

On the “broken promise” of changing the stage-three tax cuts (the latest Guardian Essential poll had Albanese falling in the trust stakes) the prime minister said:

We made not an easy decision. We made the right decision for all the right reasons. We know that families are under cost of living pressure.

The idea that we could sit back and ignore the clear recommendations that this was the best way that we could have an impact on providing that assistance to middle Australia without putting upward pressure on inflation – we couldn’t ignore that.

This is just a terrible incident that’s occurred here. The loss of the two young men and I feel for the grieving of the family, the friends. They obviously were full of life, because so many people interacted with them. It’s a really tough day for, as well, the queer community, and it’s been a very difficult time.

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UK grocery price inflation falls to two-year low amid supermarket price war

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Competition helped offset impact of Red Sea shipping crisis in February, says analyst Kantar

Grocery price inflation in the UK has slowed to a two-year low as fierce competition among supermarkets offset the impact of the Red Sea shipping crisis on goods prices.

In a boost to households, supermarket prices were 5.3% higher than a year earlier in February, the lowest rate since March 2022 and down from January’s 6.8%, according to the analyst Kantar. Grocery sales grew by 5.1% in the four weeks to 18 February.

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Bank of England governor dampens hopes of interest rate cut

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Andrew Bailey says cost of living had been higher than expected in December despite ‘encouraging’ inflation news

The Bank of England governor has doused hopes that better-than-expected inflation news last month will accelerate cuts in interest rates, stressing the need for further evidence of wage moderation before Threadneedle Street moves.

Appearing before the House of Lords economics committee on Wednesday, Andrew Bailey said it was “encouraging” that inflation had remained unchanged at 4% in January but the previous month’s figure for the cost of living had been higher than predicted.

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US inflation hotter than expected in January at 3.1%

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While inflation has fallen sharply since peaking above 9% in June 2022, many are still feeling the pinch of high prices

Inflation was hotter than expected across the US last month as it continues to fall back from its highest levels in a generation.

Price growth dropped to an annual rate of 3.1% in January, according to official data; above economists’ expectations of 2.9%. In December, the consumer price index stood at 3.4%.

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UK pay growth slows less than expected as workers bid up wages

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December figures prompt predictions Bank of England may cut interest rates later than previously expected

Pay growth slowed less than expected in December, prompting predictions the Bank of England could start cutting interest rates later than previously expected.

Earnings growth, excluding bonuses, fell only modestly to 6.2% in October to December 2023 from a revised 6.7% in the previous three months, as workers continued to bid up their wages amid skills shortages and a record number of people with long-term sickness.

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China has seen a fourth month of falling prices, but will it act to curb deflation?

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Plunge in consumer prices has fuelled calls for a stimulus package – yet Beijing may stick to the new normal of lower growth

• China consumer prices plunge at fastest rate for 15 years

China’s economy has gone from bad to worse – and it is only February.

Figures released on Thursday showed consumer prices fell by 0.8% in January compared with a year earlier, outstripping economists’ expectations and marking the biggest contraction in 15 years.

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China consumer prices plunge at fastest rate for 15 years as deflation fears deepen

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Plummeting food prices feed steep annual drop amid renewed calls to stimulate economy and offset weakening demand

China’s consumer prices fell at their fastest pace in 15 years in January, as the world’s second-largest economy sank deeper into deflation amid weakening demand.

Data released on Thursday showed that China’s consumer price index tumbled last month, falling by 0.8% compared with a year earlier. It marks the fourth consecutive month of declines, as well as the sharpest drop since September 2009, when the global economy was still grappling with aftershocks from the 2008 banking crisis.

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UK workers must accept lower pay deals to help beat inflation, says Bank ratesetter

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Deputy governor Sarah Breeden also says firms must rein in profits as there is ‘some way to go’ to meet 2% inflation target

Victory in the war on inflation will require British workers to accept lower pay deals and companies to rein in their profits, a senior Bank of England policymaker has said.

Sarah Breeden, one of the central bank’s four deputy governors, said there was still “some way to go” before inflation would fall back to the 2% target set by the government for the Bank to achieve on a sustainable basis.

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UK ditches post-Brexit Canada trade talks; Vodafone and Three UK merger under investigation – as it happened

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Live, rolling coverage of business, economics and financial markets as Canada says UK was unwilling to give access to agricultural products

Shares in US chipmaker Intel have slumped in pre-market trading after it revealed a weaker forecast of earnings.

Chipmakers have been flying in recent years as shortages followed by the huge hype over artificial intelligence – which is hungry for processing power – prompted investors to pile into the sector.

Although Intel beat estimates, investors’ disappointment in Intel’s datacentre GPU story’s growth can be primarily attributed to the slower-than-expected product delivery and ramp-up.

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BT scraps above-inflation price rises for mobile and broadband customers

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UK’s mobile and broadband firms were accused of ‘greedflation’ last year by the Guardian

BT has become the first major telecoms company to scrap controversial above-inflation price rises for mobile and broadband customers – but not before pushing through a final increase this year.

The owner of mobile operator EE has moved to address the pressure on consumers from rising household costs during the cost of living crisis, after telecoms companies were criticised for increasing bills.

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