In today’s newsletter: Rachel Reeves calculates that changing debt rules could help boost the UK economy, but what does it really mean?

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Good morning.

There are just three weeks to go until the biggest fiscal and political event for any government: the budget.

Middle East | Israel has said it is expanding its ground operation in Lebanon with the deployment of a fourth division after another night of intense airstrikes. The reservist 146th division was sent to southern Lebanon overnight, meaning the number of troops on the ground is now likely to number 15,000. The Lebanese health ministry said late on Tuesday 36 people have been killed and 150 have been injured in Israeli attacks over the past 24 hours.

Environment | Florida’s western coast was making emergency preparations on Tuesday for the impact of Hurricane Milton, with thousands of evacuees clogging highways, contending with fuel shortages, and the mayor of Tampa warning residents bluntly “you are going to die” if they stayed behind.

Conservatives | James Cleverly has topped the latest MPs’ vote in the Conservative leadership contest, making him the new favourite, as Tom Tugendhat became the latest candidate to be eliminated.

Poverty | More than 9 million people in the UK experience levels of poverty and hunger so extreme they are vulnerable to reliance on charity food handouts, according to research by the charity Trussell.

Society | Deaths have outstripped births in the UK for the first time in almost half a century, excluding the start of the pandemic, official figures showed.