Ukraine war weighs heavy as apocalyptic mood shrouds Davos

From a warning of third world war to global stagflation or depression, gathering is unsurprisingly sombre

The impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine dominated a delayed and slimmed-down World Economic Forum this year but it took George Soros to articulate what many of those making the trip to the Swiss Alps had been thinking.

Davos would not be Davos without a broadside from the 91-year-old philanthropist and former speculator, but the conflict in eastern Europe prompted his most apocalyptic warning yet.

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Royal Mail ‘at crossroads’ as pandemic parcel boom fades

Postal service says it needs to adapt to post-Covid business world amid near-9% drop in profits and union pay battle

Royal Mail has warned that the company is at a “crossroads” and needs to urgently adapt to the post-pandemic environment as parcel deliveries, originally boosted by Covid lockdowns, continue to wane.

It piles further pressure on the postal company, as it struggles to reach a pay deal with unionised staff who are pushing for an inflation-based pay rise as the cost of living soars.

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Helping cash-strapped Britons won’t add to inflation, says CBI

Chief of business association calls for stimulus that aids ‘hardest hit’ with rising food and fuel bills

Tackling rising food and fuel bills will not add to inflation and people who are “the hardest hit” need help now, the head of the UK’s biggest business association has warned.

Official figures published on Wednesday revealed UK inflation soared to 9% in April – its highest level for more than 40 years – as the rising cost of gas and electricity pushed household energy bills to record levels.

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Ukraine war has stoked global food crisis that could last years, says UN

Shortages of grain and fertiliser could cause ‘mass hunger and famine, says chief, as World Bank pledges another $12bn to ease shortfall

The United Nations has warned that the war in Ukraine has helped to stoke a global food crisis that could last years if it goes unchecked, as the World Bank announced an additional $12bn in funding to mitigate its “devastating effects”.

UN secretary general António Guterres said shortages of grain and fertiliser caused by the war, warming temperatures and pandemic-driven supply problems threaten to “tip tens of millions of people over the edge into food insecurity”, as financial markets saw share prices fall heavily again on fears of inflation and a worldwide recession.

Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, used his nightly address to claim that Russia’s use of laser weapons to down drones to save stocks of conventional missiles “indicates the complete failure of the invasion” and that mistakes had been made at the highest level. He compared their use to propaganda efforts by Nazi Germany promoting a “wunderwaffe” or “wonder weapon”. Russia has claimed it is using a new generation of laser weapons to burn up drones.

Zelenskiy said he had signed a decree to extend martial law by 90 days in order to allow further time to expel invasion forces. The decree needs to be approved by parliament.

Sweden and Finland have formally submitted their applications to join Nato but Turkey blocked an early move to fast-track the Nordic countries’ requests, demanding they extradite “terrorists” and that the alliance respect its concerns. US president Joe Biden said Washington would in the meantime work with Finland and Sweden in the event of the “threat of aggression”.

The US embassy in Kyiv has resumed operations, the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, said after nearly three months of closure. A small number of diplomats will return initially to staff the embassy, according to a spokesperson.

G7 finance minister will meet in Brussels on Thursday hoping to find a solution for Kyiv’s budget troubles as the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to roil the global economy. The US has already pledged a $40bn aid package to fill Kyiv’s coffers and military stores.

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Why does the UK have the highest inflation in the G7?

Analysis: UK among hardest-hit countries thanks to perfect storm of war in Ukraine, Covid and Brexit

Britain’s inflation rate has soared to the highest level since the early 1980s. After a record increase in gas and electricity bills in April, inflation is the highest in the G7. Having reached 9% last month, it is above the 8.3% rate in the US and Germany’s reading of 7.4%. Japan, an economy characterised by low inflation for decades thanks to an ageing population, has the lowest rate at 1.2%.

Here are some of the reasons why prices are rising faster in the UK than in other major economies.

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M&S chair attacks ‘pointless’ post-Brexit rules for Northern Ireland

Archie Norman backs UK plans to scrap parts of protocol, saying lorries require ‘700 pages of documents’

The chairman of Marks & Spencer has backed government plans to override parts of the Northern Ireland protocol, saying that some food exported south of the border now requires 700 pages of customs documents, partly written in Latin.

Archie Norman, a former Conservative MP, called on the UK government and EU to come to an agreement, saying the rules for sending food between them were “highly bureaucratic and pretty pointless” given that British food standards were in line with or higher than those of Brussels.

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‘Apocalyptic’ food prices will be disastrous for world’s poor, says Bank governor

Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey blames UK’s highest inflation rate for three decades on Russia-Ukraine war

The Bank of England governor has blamed the war in Ukraine for the highest inflation in the UK for three decades and warned that “apocalyptic” food prices caused by Russia’s invasion could have a disastrous impact on the world’s poor.

Giving evidence to MPs, Andrew Bailey said while he was unhappy about the level of price rises, 80% of the inflation overshoot was caused by factors outside the Bank’s control.

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Cutting City regulation risks another financial crash, say economists

Leading economists publish letter to Rishi Sunak in response to proposed financial services and markets bill

A group of 58 leading economists and politicians, including the former business minister Vince Cable, has written to the chancellor to say that scaling back City regulation will put the UK at risk of another financial crash.

The open letter, which has also been signed by the former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis and Columbia University professor Adam Tooze, was sent in reaction to the Queen’s speech, which outlined Rishi Sunak’s plans to “cut red tape” through a financial services and markets bill.

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The Northern Ireland protocol is said to be a blight on regional economy. That’s just not true

After an initial shock to businesses, manufacturing jobs are growing four times faster here than the UK average

Whenever Boris Johnson’s government wades into battle over the Northern Ireland protocol, it wields one assertion like a broadsword: that the protocol is ruining the region’s economy. Checks on goods entering Northern Ireland are disrupting trade, increasing prices and bankrupting businesses, and the damage will worsen unless the protocol is changed, goes the argument.

The Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA), a rightwing thinktank, joined the fray last week with a report that estimated the annual cost of the agreement at £850m.

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John Lewis boss calls for Covid-style cost of living aid package

Dame Sharon White follows Tesco chief in urging UK government to help with rising energy and grocery bills

The boss of John Lewis has urged the governmentto intervene with a financial package of support to protect families from the cost of living crisis on the same scale as it did to help the nation deal with the Covid pandemic.

Dame Sharon White, a former second permanent secretary at the Treasury, said the government needed to act urgently as families struggle to pay utility and food costs as energy bills and inflation soars.

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US inflation rate slows but remains close to 40-year high

Consumer price index reveals costs rising by a monthly rate of 0.3% in April, down from 1.2% in March, the first fall since August 2021

Price rises slowed in the US in April but the annual inflation rate remained close to a 40-year high, leaving many Americans struggling to afford necessities including food, shelter and fuel.

The latest consumer price index (CPI) figures – which measure a broad range of goods and services – showed prices rising by a monthly rate of 0.3% in April, down from 1.2% in March, the first fall since August 2021.

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Sri Lanka is the first domino to fall in the face of a global debt crisis

The south Asian country is the first to buckle under economic pressures compounded by Russia’s war on Ukraine, but it won’t be the last

The departure of Sri Lanka’s prime minister, Mahinda Rajapaksa, follows weeks of protest and a deepening crisis. There is no bankruptcy system for states but if there was then the south Asian country – down to its last $50m (£40m) of reserves – would be first in line to use it.

A team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) this week started work with officials in Colombo over a bailout that will include a tough package of reforms as well as financial support. But as the IMF and its sister organisation, the World Bank, know full well, this is about more than the mismanagement of an individual country. They fear Sri Lanka is the canary in the coalmine.

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Russia’s war in Ukraine ‘causing £3.6bn of building damage a week’

Kyiv School of Economics estimates cost of conflict could rise to $600bn, almost four times the nation’s GDP

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is inflicting damage to the country’s infrastructure at a cost of $4.5bn (£3.6bn) a week as bombs tear through thousands of buildings and public utilities, and miles of road.

According to estimates compiled by the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE), and supported by the Ukrainian government, the total amount of direct infrastructure damage has reached $92bn since Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion in February.

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Bank of England ‘duty bound’ to trigger recession to curb inflation

Ex-official says policymakers must shrink the UK economy to limit upward pressure on prices made worse by Brexit

Britain’s central bank policymakers are “duty bound” when they meet this week to push the UK into recession to cap rising inflation, a former Bank of England (BoE) official has said.

Adam Posen, who runs Washington-based thinktank the Peterson Institute, said that while the Bank of England would not want workers to lose their jobs, it should hike interest rates now to squeeze out inflationary pressures made worse by Brexit trade and immigration restrictions.

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Rising feed prices mean chicken could soon cost as much as beef, says Co-op

Price of UK’s most popular meat is rising faster than any other protein, according to retailer’s boss

Chicken’s relative affordability has helped make it the country’s meat of choice but one of the UK’s biggest food retailers has warned it could soon be as pricey as beef as production costs soar.

Steve Murrells, chief executive of the Co-op, said that feed costs had become a huge challenge for the poultry industry. “Chicken could become as expensive as beef. Chicken, which was incredibly cheap and great value for money, is rising quicker than any other protein.”

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Unprecedented inflation ahead as Ukraine war adds to costs, says Unilever

Rise in energy and ingredient costs suggests consumers will have to pay more for well-known brands

The consumer goods firm Unilever has said “unprecedented cost inflation” lies ahead as Russia’s war on Ukraine has added to a surge in energy and ingredient costs, and said that shoppers will pay even more for well-known brands in the coming months.

The company, which makes goods ranging from Dove soap to Magnum ice-cream and Marmite, said on Thursday it expected its costs to rise by €2.7bn (£2.3bn) in the second half of 2022, after an already steep increase on the €2.1bn expected for the first half.

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Shelf shock: soaring supermarket prices shoppers find hard to swallow

From dog food to coffee, readers are reporting some basic goods’ prices are rising by far more than inflation

Inflation is rampant, and supermarket prices are no exception. Shoppers are returning to stores to find old favourites have leapt in price from one week to the next. The cost of consumer goods is spiralling at such a rate that retail analysts have coined a new term, shelf shock.

Nestlé, the owner of KitKat, Häagen-Dazs and Felix cat food, became the latest consumer goods group to warn of more pain to come on Thursday, saying it had raised prices by 5.2% in the first three months of this year and that rising production costs would force another increase soon.

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UK consumer confidence even lower than in 2008 financial crisis

Slowdown in retail sector feared as public gripped by pessimism about the economy as well as personal finances

Fears that Britain is heading for a marked slowdown in consumer spending have intensified as it emerged that the public is gloomier about the economy than when banks were on the brink of collapse during the financial crisis of 2008.

A combination of rocketing energy prices, higher taxes and a surge in the annual inflation rate to its highest level in three decades meant confidence was in freefall, according to the latest monthly snapshot of sentiment.

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Russia ‘preparing legal action’ to unfreeze $600bn foreign currency reserves

Elvira Nabiullina says lawsuits aim to release gold and foreign currency frozen amid Ukraine invasion sanctions

Russia is preparing to take legal action to challenge the freeze on its $600bn (£462bn) foreign currency war chest put in place by western governments after the invasion of Ukraine, the head of the country’s central bank has said.

Elvira Nabiullina said plans were being made to launch lawsuits after governments including the US, UK and EU froze the Russian central bank’s foreign currency reserves held within their jurisdictions.

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Jump in UK wages fails to keep pace with cost of living

Pressure for more support for households and businesses after consumer prices rise 6.2%

Business live updates: jobless rate drops and wage squeeze continues

Britain’s cost of living crisis moved into its fourth consecutive month in February despite a jump in wages and a fall in unemployment to just 3.8%, its lowest level since 1974.

The Office for National Statistics said average earnings growth of 5.4%, including bonuses, failed to keep pace with a 6.2% rise in the consumer prices index in February, while for those who missed out on a bonus the situation was even worse after average wages increased by only 4%.

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