How a spring UK budget could fire the starting gun for an early election

UK economic prospects are bleak but an agenda-setting fiscal event such as sweeping tax cuts in March offers another roll of the dice

To grasp the nettle, or wait in the hope that things somehow miraculously improve. This is the choice Rishi Sunak will be weighing for the next general election, as the Conservatives limp towards the finishing line of another challenging year.

After Jeremy Hunt announced the government would hold an earlier than anticipated budget, with a date set for 6 March, the possibility of a poll in May, in the afterglow of some electioneering tax cuts, is clearly being given considerable thought.

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UK and Switzerland agree to deepen ties between City and Swiss banking system

Treasury says post-Brexit tie-up to be signed on Thursday will ease cross-border market access for financial services

The UK and Switzerland will agree to forge closer links on Thursday in a post-Brexit accord that aims to deepen ties between the City and the Swiss banking system.

In a move that brings Europe’s largest financial centres closer together, the mutual recognition agreement will be signed on Thursday by the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, during a visit to Berne.

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UK inflation in unexpectedly steep fall to 3.9% amid lower bread and fuel prices

Forecast-beating drop in November takes rate to lowest level in more than two years

Britain’s two-year cost of living crisis eased last month as cheaper petrol and less expensive food helped send the annual inflation rate sharply lower to 3.9% – its second big monthly fall in succession.

In a much bigger decline than had been anticipated by economists, the annual rate of price rises fell from 4.6% in October to its lowest level since September 2021.

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Jeremy Hunt’s post-Brexit City shake-up is ‘damp squib’, say MPs

Treasury select committee says Edinburgh reforms launched a year ago have had little impact on UK economy

Jeremy Hunt’s post-Brexit City shake-up has been dismissed as a “damp squib” that has had little impact on the UK economy a year after its launch.

The chancellor announced the “bold collection” of policy changes known as the Edinburgh reforms in December 2022 with the claim they would “create jobs, support businesses and power growth across all four nations of the UK”.

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The broken state of UK economy is clear; Hunt and Starmer’s solutions are less so

Resolution Foundation report underlines lack of progress by Tories but Labour proposals seem woolly

Britain’s economy is broken. That was the simple message given by the Resolution Foundation thinktank in the final report of its long-running look into the state of the nation.

Monday’s conference to launch the report was a high-powered affair, containing past and present members of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee, the head of the Office for Budget Responsibility, Richard Hughes, and other members of the great and good.

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James Cleverly tells MPs crackdown will cut annual immigration numbers by about 300,000 – as it happened

Home secretary to announce big hike in salary requirement for migrants to the UK as Rishi Sunak tries to cut net migration figures

Hunt says the government wants to speed up the time it takes to get a connection to the national grid by 90%.

Zanny Minton Beddoes, the editor of the Economist, is interviewing Hunt. She says he has mentioned the 110 policies, but she wants to know what the growth strategy is.

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No bounce for the Tories after tax-cutting budget, poll shows

Opinium poll for the Observer reveals the public is unimpressed with Jeremy Hunt’s attempt to woo them by trimming national insurance

Rishi Sunak has received no poll bounce after cutting taxes in last week’s autumn statement, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer.

Following a week in which the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, described a reduction in national insurance as “the biggest tax cut on work since the 1980s” Labour’s lead has increased to 16 percentage points over the Tories.

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Rishi Sunak says immigration must fall but declines to say which new measures he backs – as it happened

Net migration to the UK in 2023 is estimated at 672,000, and the PM says a more ‘sustainable’ level is needed. This live blog is closed

When Nigel Farage was leading the Brexit party, it was considerably influential for a party with no MPs, winning the European elections in 2019 and helping to push the Conservative party into a harder position on Brexit. After the 2019 election it was renamed Reform UK, Richard Tice took over as leader and it became much more marginal. But in an interview on the Today programme this morning Tice claimed that the government’s failure to bring down immigration was presenting it with an opportunity. He told the programme:

The British people voted to control immigration, and the government have betrayed the people’s promises. And that’s why so many thousands of people, former Tory members, are joining us. Our polling numbers – we got record polling last week, four different polls where we’re in double figures. This week, we’ve had Tory donors joining us. Frankly, I fully expect Tory MPs who are furious and angry with the government to be calling me next week.

[Cleverly] has made the point that he says that it was not aimed at a particular place. Knowing James well, he’s not the sort of person, in my opinion, who would have made that kind of remark in that kind of context.

But he has accepted that this was certainly unparliamentary language and he has rightly apologised.

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Scotland ‘let down on every front’ by Hunt’s statement, says SNP government

Questions in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland about funding for devolved governments

The Scottish government has accused the chancellor of “letting Scotland down on every count” after he unveiled a modest £545m increase in Treasury funding, and extra funds for Wales and Northern Ireland.

Jeremy Hunt announced an overall boost of £1bn for the UK’s three devolved governments, with Wales in line to receive an extra £305m and Northern Ireland £185m over the next two financial years, alongside £545m for Scotland.

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Autumn statement live: Jeremy Hunt cuts national insurance as OBR downgrades UK growth forecast

Chancellor cuts employee national insurance to 10% while abolishing class 2 national insurance

Keir Starmer has said that a pause in hostilities between Israel and Hamas must be used to tackle the “urgent and unacceptable humanitarian catastrophe” in Gaza.

Welcoming the deal, which is expected to involve the release of 50 hostages being held by Hamas and a number of women and teenagers from Israeli jails, the Labour leader said his party had been calling for “a substantial humanitarian pause”. He said:

There must be immediate access to aid, food, water, fuel and medicine to ensure hospitals function and lives are saved. Aid and fuel need to not just get in but be distributed widely and safely.

We must also use the space this pause creates to take more steps on a path towards a full cessation of hostilities rather than an escalation of violence.

The real function of the projected spending squeeze is as a trap for Labour. If the opposition rejects the Tory trajectory, it will be accused of planning a profligate spree with public money. And if it pledges adherence to impossible targets, it will enter government with its hands bound too tight to deliver prompt satisfaction to the people who voted for it.

Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves have so far operated a sensible policy of not walking into traps of this kind. That approach restored swing voters’ trust in Labour as stewards of the economy. But it tests the patience of an activist base that sees reversal of austerity as a moral imperative and can smell the incipient disappointment in promises of fiscal discipline.

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Autumn statement: Jeremy Hunt looks to cut UK taxes and ‘turbo-charge growth’

Amid less gloomy OBR forecasts the chancellor is expected to take first steps towards cutting personal taxes

Jeremy Hunt will announce 110 measures to boost Britain’s stagnant economy and bow to demands from anxious Tory MPs for tax cuts when he delivers his second autumn statement on Wednesday.

In one of the last set-piece economic events before the general election, the chancellor will pledge to “turbo charge” growth while taking the first steps to cut personal taxes after recent sharp increases.

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UK borrows less than expected this year as Hunt lines up giveaways

Chancellor says bringing down inflation remains one of his main aims as he prepares autumn statement

The UK government borrowed less than expected in the first seven months of the financial year as Jeremy Hunt puts the last-minute touches to a series of pre-election giveaways in his autumn statement on Wednesday.

Public sector borrowing between April and October was just above £98bn, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), and while this was £22bn higher than in the same period last year, it was almost £17bn less than the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast in March.

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Sunak says he will cut taxes ‘over time’ as he reveals new economic priorities

PM signals that business tax cuts more likely than personal ones as he sets out ‘next phase’ of government’s economic plan

Rishi Sunak has hinted at business tax cuts to boost economic growth as he promised to reduce the tax burden “carefully and sustainably” and “over time”.

In a speech on Monday the prime minister declined to give any specifics before the autumn statement, but stressed the focus was “very much the supply side” of the economy in a signal that business tax cuts are more likely than personal ones.

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Tax corporate polluters and rich to help tackle climate crisis, Jeremy Hunt told

In letter to Guardian, campaigners say billions could be raised to help finance decarbonisation

Jeremy Hunt has been warned that combating the climate emergency will require higher taxes on wealth and big corporate polluters at the autumn statement rather than a package of giveaways for the rich.

In the run-up to the chancellor’s speech to the Commons on Wednesday, a group of 19 leading charities and campaigners – including Greenpeace, Christian Aid and Patriotic Millionaires UK – said billions of pounds could be raised to help finance decarbonisation.

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Autumn statement will avoid tax cuts that promote inflation, pledges Hunt

Chancellor seeks to promote growth ahead of autumn statement that could spark a rebellion among Tory backbenchers defending marginal seats

Jeremy Hunt has played down the prospect of immediate income tax cuts, pledging not to do anything in this week’s autumn statement that will fuel inflation.

Although some Conservative backbenchers are eager for measures that would be quickly felt by households, the chancellor on Sunday sought to emphasise the need to promote growth and indicated that tax cuts were “not going to happen overnight”.

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Jeremy Hunt faces red wall revolt if he delivers ‘a budget for the rich’

The chancellor’s potential inheritance tax cut in Wednesday’s budget would aid millionaires amid a cost of living crisis

Jeremy Hunt faces a backlash from “red wall” Tory MPs if he uses a fiscal windfall of up to £20bn to deliver tax cuts for the rich rather than to help ordinary families with the cost of living, the Observer has been told.

The chancellor and Rishi Sunak are this weekend finalising an autumn statement on Wednesday that could include a major reduction in inheritance tax – four-fifths of which would benefit those with more than £1m at their death, according to a new report from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS). Each person with more than £1m would receive an average tax cut of £180,000, the IFS states.

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Hunt urged to invest £30bn a year in infrastructure or risk ‘decade in doldrums’

Thinktank says stronger than expected tax revenues have given chancellor scope for bold package in autumn statement

Jeremy Hunt risks condemning Britain to a decade in the doldrums unless he uses this month’s autumn statement to announce a £30bn-a-year investment plan to upgrade public infrastructure, a leading thinktank has warned.

The National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said the chancellor should ignore calls by Tory MPs for pre-election tax cuts and instead focus on measures to boost growth through improvements to transport, digital networks, skills and housing.

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Big UK venture capital funds pledge to invest in high growth companies

Chancellor calls scheme involving 20 of UK’s largest funds a ‘huge win’ for the country

A group of leading UK venture capital funds managing more than £25bn have signed an agreement backed by the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, to boost investment in high growth companies across the country.

In a government drive to drum up private investment in Britain before the chancellor’s autumn statement, Hunt said the scheme involving 20 of the UK’s largest funds was a “huge win” for the country.

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UK manufacturers call for ‘major MOT’ of business tax and regulation system

Report says many aspects make companies uncompetitive, as chancellor Jeremy Hunt is urged to make reforms

Britain’s manufacturers are urging the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, to announce a “major MOT” of the UK’s “uncompetitive” business tax and regulatory system in his autumn statement next month.

Many aspects of the system are “not fit for purpose”, the business group Make UK said in a report published in the middle of the political party conference season, and called for major reform as part of an industrial strategy.

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UK economy makes stronger recovery from pandemic than first thought

Revisions to figures show stronger performance than Germany and France but momentum starts to stall

The UK economy made a faster recovery from the Covid pandemic than previously estimated, according to revisions to official figures revealing a stronger performance than Germany and France.

In a boost for Rishi Sunak before the Conservative party conference in Manchester beginning this weekend, revised figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed gross domestic product was 1.8% above pre-pandemic levels at the end of the second quarter this year.

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