Another U-turn looms – how much will it save and what else could the chancellor ditch?

Corporation tax plans likely to be latest to be dropped – bad news for Kwarteng’s credibility, but good for his balance sheet

Liz Truss is on the verge of reversing one of the last major pillars of her chancellor’s disastrous September mini-budget.

While Kwasi Kwarteng mingles with finance ministers at the International Monetary Fund gathering in Washington DC, discussions are taking place in London that would see the promise to freeze corporation tax rates binned. There is also speculation about dropping smaller measures including a more generous tax treatment of share dividends. These U-turns would come hard on the heels of the humiliating climbdown on Kwarteng’s promise to scrap the 45p top rate of tax.

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‘Let’s see’: pressure builds for No 10 U-turn on corporation tax

Reversing key plank of her leadership pitch would be much bigger humiliation for Liz Truss than 45p rate U-turn

The clamour among Conservative MPs for a third U-turn by Liz Truss started the same as the others: one MP begins as an outrider, backed by some party veterans or ex-cabinet ministers, and the question catches alight across broadcasters who ask every MP they see. Soon enough, it is received wisdom.

Most MPs who are squeamish about deposing their third prime minister had hoped that they would see change in the markets and contrition from No 10 and 11 after the U-turn on the 45p rate. Over the course of the past week, it has been clear to them that will not happen.

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Poorer families risk £1,000 hit from earnings-related benefits rise

Below-inflation rise would save exchequer tenth of £40bn to be given out through tax cuts, says thinktank

If the government raises benefits in line with earnings rather than inflation next year, it would drastically cut the incomes of poorer working-age families, while saving less than a tenth of the cost of recent tax cuts, a leading economic thinktank has calculated.

Such a change, which would mean a significant real-terms cut given that wages are rising at 5.5% with inflation close to 10%, could see the effective income of some families reduced by up to £1,000 a year, the Resolution Foundation said.

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Liz Truss insists tax cuts will go ahead despite public spending promise

PM suggests borrowing will rise as she surprises MPs by saying she has no plans to cut public spending

Liz Truss has said the Conservatives will push ahead with tax cuts without cutting public spending, instead allowing borrowing to rise over the next few years.

Senior economists had warned on Wednesday that such a strategy, if set out by Kwasi Kwarteng in the chancellor’s fiscal plan at the end of this month, would be likely to spook investors, creating renewed market turmoil.

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Starmer’s chief of staff to leave job as Labour leader unveils major party shake-up – UK politics live

Latest updates: Labour leader hoping to put party on war footing ahead of next election

In the supreme court Dorothy Bain KC, the lord advocate, the Scottish government’s most senior law officer, is now setting out her case.

Here is the 50-page submission to the court setting our her case that was released in July.

Despite the political context of this reference, the questions the court has to decide are limited to technical questions of law. The court will decide them by applying legal principles.

The court will require time after the hearing to prepare its judgement. The hearing is the tip of the iceberg. We also have more than 8000 pages of written material to consider.

Therefore, as usual, is likely to be some months before we get our judgement.

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Unfunded tax cuts mean UK ‘will need £60bn spending cuts’

IFS says Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget will leave ministers making serious reductions in public services

Kwasi Kwarteng will need to find £60bn of savings by 2026 to fill the gap left by unfunded tax cuts and the costs of extra borrowing triggered by a panicked reaction on international money markets to the chancellor’s “mini-budget”, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

The UK will also struggle to hit the chancellor’s 2.5% growth target, with economic forecasts by the investment bank Citigroup that the IFS uses to underpin its analysis showing the UK will struggle to grow at more than 0.8% on average over the next five years.

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IFS: Millions in Britain ‘face stealth tax raid’ under Liz Truss’s plans

For every £1 given workers by cutting tax rates £2 was being taken via freeze on income tax thresholds, thinktank calculates

Millions of households are facing a “stealth” tax raid under Liz Truss’s government despite her promise to support workers through the cost-of-living crisis by lowering their tax bills, Britain’s leading economic thinktank said on Wednesday.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has calculated that for every £1 given to workers by cutting headline tax rates, £2 was being taken away through a freeze on the level at which people begin paying tax on their earnings.

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Liz Truss refuses to rule out real-terms benefits cuts

PM facing fresh battle with MPs as she declines to commit to raising benefits in line with inflation

Liz Truss has refused to commit to raising benefits in line with inflation, amid a fresh battle with MPs over cuts to spending including concern from among her cabinet.

The prime minister said pensions would rise in line with inflation, having committed to the pensions “triple lock” during the leadership campaign. But she said people on welfare benefits were in a “different situation” and said they were more able to look for more work.

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Kwasi Kwarteng set to address Tory conference with authority on the line after 45% tax rate U-turn – UK politics live

Chancellor expected to give changed address after confirming plan to axe top rate of income tax has been scrapped

Q: Where does this leave your credibility?

Kwarteng says he has been in parliament for 12 years. He says ministers do sometimes change their minds.

I decided, along with the the prime minister, not to proceed [with the policy].

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Labour demands names of guests at champagne event Kwarteng attended

Drinks reception with wealthy Tory donors took place on same day the chancellor delivered mini-budget

Pressure is growing on the Tory party to provide a full list of attendees at a private champagne reception attended by the chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, hours after he delivered his mini-budget.

Anneliese Dodds, the Labour chair, has written to her Conservative counterpart, Jake Berry, calling on him to release a list of those in attendance and whether they pledged donations or paid a fee to be there.

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Truss’s mini-budget looks likely to cost the Tories the next election | Pippa Crerar

Tory MPs fear voters see them as the nasty party again after the prime minister refused to rethink tax cuts for the rich

Liz Truss has long channelled Margaret Thatcher – echoing her rhetoric, her free market instincts and even her clothes – but as the Tory conference kicked off in Birmingham on Sunday many in her party were hoping that she would relinquish ambitions to be the next Iron Lady and drop her mini-budget plans.

There were early glimmers of hope. In an article for the Sun, she admitted her proposals would cause “short term disruption” but that she had an “iron grip” on the country’s finances. Then she told the BBC she understood public concerns. “I do accept we should have laid the ground better,” she said.

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Liz Truss admits she should have ‘laid ground better’ before mini-budget and says cabinet not consulted about 45% top rate tax cut – live

Latest updates: PM vows to press ahead with mini-budget plans and dismisses objections to top rate of tax being axed

Q: Are you absolutely committed to getting rid of the 45% rate of tax?

Yes, says Truss.

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Serco injected £60m to prop up pension fund after market meltdown

£1bn scheme is latest to scramble to raise cash after chancellor’s tax-cutting mini-budget sparks turmoil

The pension scheme trustees at the government contractor Serco have been forced to tap the company for £60m of emergency support after the UK’s financial markets meltdown this week.

Serco’s £1bn pensions scheme is the latest to scramble to raise cash after a plunge in the pound and a meltdown in UK bond prices triggered calls on fund managers to provide collateral for niche financial products they had taken out to hedge against swings in the value of their investments.

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Truss and Kwarteng to hold back OBR forecasts for six weeks

PM and chancellor say they will not publish projections until late November despite them being ready next week

Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng will refuse to release forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) until more than six weeks after receiving them, despite calls for them to be published as soon as possible.

The prime minister and chancellor said they would only publish the independent forecasts on 23 November alongside a fiscal statement, despite them being ready on 7 October.

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Truss ‘standing by Kwarteng’ as Treasury defends plans despite market turmoil – as it happened

No 10 says PM has faith in chancellor, as Treasury minister says tax cuts are the ‘right plan’. This blog is now closed

Q: When would you get debt falling as a proprotion of GDP?

Starmer says Labour does want to get that down.

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‘Fiscal sustainability’ plus rising borrowing costs could add up to cuts

To make the sums work, some suggest Kwasi Kwarteng may include deep spending reductions in his medium-term fiscal plan

When Kwasi Kwarteng met City figures on Tuesday, the Treasury said he had “reiterated the government’s commitment to fiscal sustainability”: though the grim faces of attendees in the official photos suggested they may not have been terribly reassured.

Some analysts are now warning that with borrowing costs rising sharply, and the chancellor determined not to water down his radical tax plans, “fiscal sustainability” points to one thing: spending cuts.

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Labour delegates urged to back PR to end ‘trickle-down democracy’ – UK politics live

Latest updates: Labour delegate says current electoral system allows Tories to get away with measures like ‘protecting bankers’ bonuses’

In June, as the RMT union launched what has become an ongoing series of strikes, Keir Starmer ordered Labour frontbenchers and shadow ministerial aides not to join picket lines. This infuriated leftwing Labour MPs and some union leaders, notably Sharon Graham, the general secretary of Unite.

At one point it looked as if there might be a huge row at conference about whether shadow ministers should or should not be allowed to join picket lines. But, in an interview with the Today programme this morning, Graham suggested that a truce of sorts has been agreed – even if the two sides do not entirely see eye to eye.

My issue about this … isn’t necessarily around one person on a picket line because, quite frankly, that isn’t the issue. The issue is the mood music [ordering shadow ministers not to join picket lines] suggests. It suggests a mood music that being on the picket line is somehow a bad thing. It’s a naughty step situation.

The party who is there to stick up for workers should not give the impression – that’s the problem, it gives the impression – that they are saying picket lines are not the place to be. And I think that it was unfortunate. I think it was a mistake. I think, to be honest with you, Labour knows it was a mistake. And I don’t actually think it’s holdable.

When people go on strike it is a last resort at the end of negotiations. And I can quite understand how people are driven to that … I support the right of individuals to go on strike, I support the trade unions doing the job that they are doing in representing their members.

I’m incredibly disappointed that as delegates we’ve been excluded from this key part of the conference’s democratic process.

This is an unprecedented move silencing members’ voices. Our CLP sent us here to Liverpool to promote our motion on public ownership and a Green New Deal, but we’ve been unfairly denied that right.

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Kwasi Kwarteng could borrow for the right reasons. These are the wrong ones

Money spent on the green transition or skills would reap a dividend. But this cash is just going to the rich

The billions of pounds of extra borrowing signalled by Kwasi Kwarteng in his not-so-mini budget can be justified as long as the money isn’t flushed down the toilet.

Funds for renewable energy projects or to boost skills training would generate a return over the next decade.

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Tories gambling with the finances of British people, says Starmer

Labour leader attacks ‘casino economics’ in wake of £45bn package of tax cuts announced by chancellor

Sir Keir Starmer has accused the government of “gambling the mortgages and finances” of the British people with its “casino economics”.

Speaking before his party’s conference in Liverpool, the Labour leader tweeted: “Tory casino economics is gambling the mortgages and finances of every family in the country. Labour will secure growth for working people, that benefits all communities. My government will deliver a fairer, greener future.”

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Mini-budget 2022: pound crashes as chancellor cuts stamp duty and top rate of income tax – live

Tax cuts to cost Treasury around £37bn in 2023-24, official figures reveal

There are no urgent questions in the morning, and so Kwasi Kwarteng, the chancellor, will be delivering his statement soon after 9.30am.

The Commons starts sitting at 9.30am, but they always begin with prayers in private, and so Kwarteng will be up a few minutes later.

The last time they did it one third of the beneficiaries were people buying second homes or buy to let, so we are sceptical that this is the magic bullet to increase homeownership. What we really need to do is to build more houses and to help get people onto the property ladder by increasing the supply of housing.

When this has been done before, it has often fuelled an already hot market and many of the beneficiaries have been people buying a second or third home, rather than the first time buyers that we really want to help who are often trapped in private rented accommodation where they’re paying as much in rent every month as they would in a mortgage.

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