Category Archives: Economics

‘Fiscal sustainability’ plus rising borrowing costs could add up to cuts

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To make the sums work, some suggest Kwasi Kwarteng may include deep spending reductions in his medium-term fiscal plan

When Kwasi Kwarteng met City figures on Tuesday, the Treasury said he had “reiterated the government’s commitment to fiscal sustainability”: though the grim faces of attendees in the official photos suggested they may not have been terribly reassured.

Some analysts are now warning that with borrowing costs rising sharply, and the chancellor determined not to water down his radical tax plans, “fiscal sustainability” points to one thing: spending cuts.

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Labour delegates urged to back PR to end ‘trickle-down democracy’ – UK politics live

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Latest updates: Labour delegate says current electoral system allows Tories to get away with measures like ‘protecting bankers’ bonuses’

In June, as the RMT union launched what has become an ongoing series of strikes, Keir Starmer ordered Labour frontbenchers and shadow ministerial aides not to join picket lines. This infuriated leftwing Labour MPs and some union leaders, notably Sharon Graham, the general secretary of Unite.

At one point it looked as if there might be a huge row at conference about whether shadow ministers should or should not be allowed to join picket lines. But, in an interview with the Today programme this morning, Graham suggested that a truce of sorts has been agreed – even if the two sides do not entirely see eye to eye.

My issue about this … isn’t necessarily around one person on a picket line because, quite frankly, that isn’t the issue. The issue is the mood music [ordering shadow ministers not to join picket lines] suggests. It suggests a mood music that being on the picket line is somehow a bad thing. It’s a naughty step situation.

The party who is there to stick up for workers should not give the impression – that’s the problem, it gives the impression – that they are saying picket lines are not the place to be. And I think that it was unfortunate. I think it was a mistake. I think, to be honest with you, Labour knows it was a mistake. And I don’t actually think it’s holdable.

When people go on strike it is a last resort at the end of negotiations. And I can quite understand how people are driven to that … I support the right of individuals to go on strike, I support the trade unions doing the job that they are doing in representing their members.

I’m incredibly disappointed that as delegates we’ve been excluded from this key part of the conference’s democratic process.

This is an unprecedented move silencing members’ voices. Our CLP sent us here to Liverpool to promote our motion on public ownership and a Green New Deal, but we’ve been unfairly denied that right.

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Sterling slides back towards record low despite Bank of England and Treasury attempts to reassure markets – business live

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Bank of England issues statement saying it ‘will not hesitate’ to change interest rate but has not implemented an emergency rise

We’ve now reached the point where the Bank of England needs to step in in order to regain the initiative, warns Paul Dales of Capital Economics.

Dales says governor Andrew Bailey has two options.

That could involve something like a 100bps or 150bps hike in interest rates (to 3.25%/3.75%), perhaps as soon as this morning.

By bringing forward a lot of the policy tightening that might needed to have happened anyway, the Bank would demonstrate in no uncertain terms that whatever the government does it will ensure that inflation returns to 2%. This would go a long way to easing the crisis.

“The bank, and indeed the Government, have indicated that they are going to take their next decision in November and publish forecasts and, so on that point, the worry is that they may have to take action a bit sooner than that.”

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Liz Truss ‘plans to loosen immigration rules to boost UK economy’

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PM expected to expand shortage occupation list to help businesses fill jobs amid recession warnings

Liz Truss is expected to loosen immigration rules in an attempt to stimulate economic growth amid warnings of a recession.

The prime minister is set to expand the government’s shortage occupation list in order to help businesses fill vacancies by recruiting overseas workers with less bureaucracy.

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Kwasi Kwarteng could borrow for the right reasons. These are the wrong ones

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Money spent on the green transition or skills would reap a dividend. But this cash is just going to the rich

The billions of pounds of extra borrowing signalled by Kwasi Kwarteng in his not-so-mini budget can be justified as long as the money isn’t flushed down the toilet.

Funds for renewable energy projects or to boost skills training would generate a return over the next decade.

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Tories gambling with the finances of British people, says Starmer

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Labour leader attacks ‘casino economics’ in wake of £45bn package of tax cuts announced by chancellor

Sir Keir Starmer has accused the government of “gambling the mortgages and finances” of the British people with its “casino economics”.

Speaking before his party’s conference in Liverpool, the Labour leader tweeted: “Tory casino economics is gambling the mortgages and finances of every family in the country. Labour will secure growth for working people, that benefits all communities. My government will deliver a fairer, greener future.”

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Mini-budget 2022: pound crashes as chancellor cuts stamp duty and top rate of income tax – live

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Tax cuts to cost Treasury around £37bn in 2023-24, official figures reveal

There are no urgent questions in the morning, and so Kwasi Kwarteng, the chancellor, will be delivering his statement soon after 9.30am.

The Commons starts sitting at 9.30am, but they always begin with prayers in private, and so Kwarteng will be up a few minutes later.

The last time they did it one third of the beneficiaries were people buying second homes or buy to let, so we are sceptical that this is the magic bullet to increase homeownership. What we really need to do is to build more houses and to help get people onto the property ladder by increasing the supply of housing.

When this has been done before, it has often fuelled an already hot market and many of the beneficiaries have been people buying a second or third home, rather than the first time buyers that we really want to help who are often trapped in private rented accommodation where they’re paying as much in rent every month as they would in a mortgage.

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Kwarteng accused of reckless mini-budget for the rich as pound plummets

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Strategy of sweeping tax cuts gets hostile reception from markets and economic thinktanks, leaving some Tory MPs aghast

Kwasi Kwarteng has been accused of delivering a reckless mini-budget for the rich after his £45bn tax-cutting package sent the pound crashing to its lowest level against the dollar in 37 years.

In a high-risk strategy designed to revive Britain’s stagnant economy, the new chancellor announced more than £400bn of extra borrowing over the coming years to fund the biggest giveaway since Tony Barber’s ill-fated 1972 budget.

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UK in recession and further interest rate hikes probable, Bank warns Kwarteng

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Threadneedle Street makes clear on eve of tax-cutting mini-budget that plans risk triggering more rate rises

The Bank of England has warned Kwasi Kwarteng the economy is in recession and it will most probably need to push interest rates higher after Friday’s tax-cutting mini-budget.

On the eve of a major package of support from the chancellor designed to break what he called the economy’s “cycle of stagnation”, Threadneedle Street said the UK economy was heading for a second consecutive quarter of falling output, with gross domestic product set to shrink 0.1% in the three months to September.

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Fed raises interest rate by 0.75 percentage points as US seeks to rein in inflation

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Third outsized rate increase in a row as central bank struggles to fight runaway inflation, increasing the cost of everything

The Federal Reserve announced another sharp hike in interest rates on Wednesday as the central bank struggles to rein in runaway inflation.

The Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by 0.75 percentage points, the third such outsized rate increase in a row, bringing the Fed rate to 3%-3.25% and increasing the cost of everything from credit card debt and mortgages to company financing.

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Economists call for radical shakeup of Bank’s interest rate committee

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MPC is dominated by people with little ‘real world’ knowledge and prone to groupthink, says ex-committee member

Members of the Bank of England’s interest-rate setting body should be appointed by the devolved administrations and by English MPs in order to counter groupthink, a former member of Threadneedle Street’s monetary policy committee has said.

David Blanchflower said the committee was dominated by people with little knowledge of the “real world”, and greater diversity of thought was needed to ensure the interests of ordinary people were reflected.

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Bring back eviction ban or face ‘catastrophic’ homelessness crisis, ministers told

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Sir Bob Kerslake calls on government to protect at-risk tenants as it did during pandemic

The former head of the civil service has warned of a looming “catastrophic” homelessness crisis caused by the cost of living unless the government reintroduces the eviction ban that protected tenants during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Sir Bob Kerslake, who chairs the Kerslake Commission on Homelessness and Rough Sleeping, said a failure to act “could see this become a homelessness as well as an economic crisis and the results could be catastrophic; with all the good achieved in reducing street homelessness since the pandemic lost, and any hope of the government meeting its manifesto pledge to end rough sleeping by 2024 gone”.

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Biggest interest rate rise for 25 years could spell showdown at the Bank

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This week’s decision could pit Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey against an expansionary PM and chancellor

A lightning strike from the Bank of England awaits. Having delayed its decision until after the period of national mourning for the death of the Queen, Threadneedle Street could this week launch the biggest rise in borrowing costs for at least 25 years.

Announcing its plans a day before Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget on Friday, the central bank is widely expected to use a fast and forceful rate increase to show its commitment to tackling soaring borrowing costs – despite the gathering storm clouds for the British economy.

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Pound falls as weak retail sales raise fears UK economy is in recession

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On Black Wednesday anniversary, sterling hits 37-year low against dollar and 17-month low against euro

Fears that the British economy is already in recession after a slump in retail sales last month triggered heavy selling of the pound on international money markets taking it to a 37-year low against the dollar.

With average UK wages continuing to fall behind rising prices and the Bank of England expected to push up interest rates next week, sterling fell by more than 1% against the US currency to $1.135, its lowest since 1985.

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World Bank warns higher interest rates could trigger global recession

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Study says global economy is in steepest slowdown after a post-recession recovery since 1970

The world may be edging toward a global recession as central banks simultaneously raise interest rates to combat persistent inflation, the World Bank has warned.

The three largest economies, – the US, China and the eurozone – have been slowing sharply, and even a “moderate hit to the global economy over the next year could tip it into recession”, the bank said in a study.

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Lenders urged to cancel Zambia debt as country faces economic collapse

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Economists accuse bondholders of standing to make huge profits at the expense of the crisis-hit country

More than 100 economists and academics have urged international lenders to crisis-stricken Zambia to write off a significant slice of their loans during financial restructuring talks this month.

Zambia is seeking up to $8.4bn (£7.3bn) in debt relief from major lenders, including private funds run by the world’s largest investment manager, BlackRock, to help put its public finances back in order.

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Bank of England will not take foot off throttle despite drop in inflation

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MPC members will look at other developments in UK and abroad in mission to increase interest rates

The drop in inflation from 10.1% in July to 9.9% last month is not going to trouble the Bank of England’s policymakers when they meet next week to set interest rates. Its monetary policy committee (MPC) is on a mission to increase the cost of borrowing to bring down inflation to 2%. Prices growth that sticks at almost 10% is still too high. One month’s figures are not a trend.

The nine MPC members will also ponder several other developments at home and abroad that can be considered reasons to increase interest rates.

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British firms warned of delay in energy bills support, reports say

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Businesses may have to wait until November, although package could still be activated next month

British businesses have been warned by government officials that they will have to wait longer than households for financial support with their energy bills amid delays in launching the £150bn scheme, according to reports.

Company bosses are increasingly worried about the prospect of delays to the arrival of support because fixed energy contracts come to an end in October for hundreds of thousands of firms.

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Kwarteng ‘tells Treasury to focus entirely on growth’ as Tory peer defends sacking of senior civil servant – as it happened

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The new chancellor is reported to have told Treasury staff there was a need to ‘do things differently under fresh leadership’. This live blog is now closed

At the lobby briefing yesterday Downing Street admitted that Liz Truss had not completed her government reshuffle. New appointments were suspended following the death of the Queen.

According to an analysis by Arj Singh for the i, 55 posts remain unfilled. Singh says that, to fill all the posts that Boris Johnson had in his government, Truss will need to appoint 21 junior ministers in the Commons, nine Commons whips and 25 Lords ministers.

The removal of Sir Tom Scholar as the lead permanent secretary at the Treasury should be a cause for celebration.

Having worked in his department for nearly two years I saw at first hand the malign influence of the Treasury orthodoxy at play. Whether it was foot-dragging and passive resistance to creating a Treasury office in the north (in Darlington), which he fiercely resisted, or the botched arrangements in the construction of the bounceback loans during the pandemic, all roads led back to him.

I hope very much that our new prime minister will build on her excellent decision and remove responsibility from the Treasury for driving economic growth. It has no idea how to deliver this. The system obsesses about measuring inputs, counting out the money distributed to departments, but has little clue of how to measure outcomes. Departments are infantilised in their management of money, with savings being automatically clawed back to the centre. This of course removes any incentive to think innovatively, creatively or cost-effectively.

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Liz Truss holds first cabinet meeting as Thérèse Coffey denies claim PM put loyalty before competence – UK politics live

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Health secretary says Truss did not focus too much on rewarding friends as new ministers attend first cabinet meeting

According to a report by Jason Groves in the Daily Mail, Liz Truss may announce an end to the ban on fracking this week. During the leadership campaign she said she wanted to allow fracking, but only in areas where there was a clear public consensus in favour.

On the Today programme this morning Lord Deben, the Tory peer who chairs the Committee for Climate Change, said fracking was not a solution to the UK’s energy problems. He explained:

The price of gas is not affected by the relatively small amount that we can get, in addition to the North Sea or indeed from fracking.

This is an international price and we would be paying the same price we got out of the fracked gas as we are for the gas we’re using now.

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