Category Archives: Institute for Fiscal Studies

Jeremy Hunt faces red wall revolt if he delivers ‘a budget for the rich’

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The chancellor’s potential inheritance tax cut in Wednesday’s budget would aid millionaires amid a cost of living crisis

Jeremy Hunt faces a backlash from “red wall” Tory MPs if he uses a fiscal windfall of up to £20bn to deliver tax cuts for the rich rather than to help ordinary families with the cost of living, the Observer has been told.

The chancellor and Rishi Sunak are this weekend finalising an autumn statement on Wednesday that could include a major reduction in inheritance tax – four-fifths of which would benefit those with more than £1m at their death, according to a new report from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS). Each person with more than £1m would receive an average tax cut of £180,000, the IFS states.

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Tories have no room for tax cuts despite £52bn a year stealth rise, says IFS

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UK stuck between weak economic growth and risk of persistently high inflation, says thinktank

The government has no room for unfunded pre-election tax cuts despite having pushed through a “colossal” £52bn a year stealth raid on household incomes on Rishi Sunak’s watch, the Institute for Fiscal Studies has warned.

Britain’s foremost economics thinktank said the dire state of the public finances meant that attention-grabbing tax cuts risked stoking inflation, leading to higher Bank of England interest rates and a lengthy recession.

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Scrapping inheritance tax would cost £15bn a year by 2032, says IFS

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Thinktank carried out analysis as calls mount among Tory MPs for the tax to be abolished

Scrapping inheritance tax would cost the government almost £15bn a year in lost revenue by 2032, according to analysis by the Institute for Fiscal Studies that follows calls from Tory MPs for the main tax on inherited wealth to be abolished.

The thinktank said the latest figures from HMRC showed fewer than 4% of estates paid inheritance tax (IHT) in 2020–21, but the rapid growth in wealth among older individuals meant this number was set to rise to more than 7% over the next decade.

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HS2 may end up as ‘total waste of money’, warns IFS thinktank – UK politics live

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Comments from Paul Johnson of Institute of Fiscal Studies come as Downing Street hints at delay to work on second phase of rail link

Around 20,000 university workers are out on strike this week at more than 50 universities across the UK, despite a dramatic last-minute scaling back of industrial action.

Strikes had been set to go ahead at 142 UK universities this week as part of a long-running dispute over pay and working conditions, but it emerged last week that two thirds of branches of the University and College Union (UCU) had declined to take part.

Davey said the Lib Dem commitment – dating back to 1992 – to raise income tax by 1p to improve public services is unsustainable in the current economic climate. Originally the money raised was earmarked for education, but at the last election the party said it would use it to fund the NHS.

Speaking from Bournemouth to broadcast studios, Davey suggested the burden should instead fall on companies making “huge profits” while people struggle with the cost of living.

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Scottish public spending deficit falls as oil revenues hit record high

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Both sides of constitutional debate use Gers data to argue case for and against independence

Scotland’s public spending deficit has fallen from a record peak last year, as oil and gas revenues reached their highest-ever level after a global rise in oil prices.

The government expenditure and revenue Scotland (Gers) report calculated a per-person deficit – the gap between the amount raised through all tax and spending on all public services – as £1,521 in the 2022-23 financial year, down from £2,184 the previous year.

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Tax cuts would put ‘scary’ UK finances in greater danger, warns top economist

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Paul Johnson, of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, issues plea for honesty from Labour and the Conservatives about tax and spending choices ahead of election

Unveiling significant tax cuts before next year’s general election would put Britain’s “scary” public finances in further peril and risk the nightmare scenario of even higher interest rates, one of the country’s most influential economists has said.

Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, also made a plea for honesty from both main parties over the profound tax and spending choices they would face should they win power.

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Jeremy Hunt is helping rich instead of helping people into work, says thinktank

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IFS says budget pensions giveaway could open up loophole for avoidance of inheritance tax

Jeremy Hunt’s huge pensions giveaway for the wealthiest 1% may have no impact on increasing the number of people in work, while opening a loophole for avoidance of inheritance tax, a leading economic thinktank has warned.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies said the surprise measure in the chancellor’s budget “probably won’t play a big part, if any” in increasing the number of people in work.

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No 10 refuses to deny Sunak was given informal warning about Raab’s behaviour before he made him deputy PM – live

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Dominic Raab under increasing pressure as civil servants’ union calls for him to be suspended until bullying inquiry concludes

MPs have been told that paramilitary groups in Northern Ireland have coerced young people with drug debts to take part in rioting, PA Media reports. PA says:

A community worker gave an example of a user’s debt being reduced by £80 for doing so.

Megan Phair, coordinator of the Journey to Empowerment Programme and member of the Stop Attacks Forum, said both loyalist and dissident republican groups use the tactic to force people on to the streets.

It’s time for the prime minister to come out of hiding and face the music. The public deserves to know the truth about what he knew and when, including the full disclosure of any advice given to him by the Cabinet Office.

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How the autumn statement brought back the ‘squeezed middle’

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IFS and Resolution Foundation say Jeremy Hunt’s policies will shock middle England, with higher taxes here to stay


Traditionally elections in Britain are decided by swing voters in a relatively small number of seats. Parties go to considerable lengths to tailor their policies to the perceived demands of those getting by on average incomes. Pollsters have even coined names for the archetypal electors that need to be wooed: Basildon man and Worcester woman.

So it will be of some concern to government strategists that the post-autumn statement analysis by thinktanks focused heavily on how the measures announced by Jeremy Hunt had an effect on those not particularly poor but not especially rich either. Both the Resolution Foundation and the Institute for Fiscal Studies highlighted the return of the “squeezed middle”.

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Minority ethnic Britons’ educational success not reflected in pay, study finds

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‘Clear evidence’ of discrimination in terms of salary and careers despite academic progress, IFS study finds

Most minority ethnic groups in the UK have made remarkable progress in educational achievement but “clear evidence” of discrimination remains in their pay and careers, according to a study published by the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

The IFS report found that most of the largest minority ethnic groups obtain English and maths exam results at least as good or better than those achieved by white British students in England, and are more likely than white teenagers to go on to university.

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Unfunded tax cuts mean UK ‘will need £60bn spending cuts’

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IFS says Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget will leave ministers making serious reductions in public services

Kwasi Kwarteng will need to find £60bn of savings by 2026 to fill the gap left by unfunded tax cuts and the costs of extra borrowing triggered by a panicked reaction on international money markets to the chancellor’s “mini-budget”, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

The UK will also struggle to hit the chancellor’s 2.5% growth target, with economic forecasts by the investment bank Citigroup that the IFS uses to underpin its analysis showing the UK will struggle to grow at more than 0.8% on average over the next five years.

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Public sector job losses could pass 100,000 if government refuses pay rises, says IFS

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Chancellor must top up budgets or face industrial action and further recruitment issues, thinktank warns

More than 100,000 public sector workers would lose their jobs this year if the government refuses to fund higher than expected pay awards for nurses, doctors, teachers and care workers, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

The IFS said the chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, faced a choice of either topping up public sector budgets or accepting the likelihood of industrial action, further problems recruiting and retaining staff, and a decline in quality of services already under extreme strain.

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IFS: Millions in Britain ‘face stealth tax raid’ under Liz Truss’s plans

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For every £1 given workers by cutting tax rates £2 was being taken via freeze on income tax thresholds, thinktank calculates

Millions of households are facing a “stealth” tax raid under Liz Truss’s government despite her promise to support workers through the cost-of-living crisis by lowering their tax bills, Britain’s leading economic thinktank said on Wednesday.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has calculated that for every £1 given to workers by cutting headline tax rates, £2 was being taken away through a freeze on the level at which people begin paying tax on their earnings.

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Kwasi Kwarteng set to address Tory conference with authority on the line after 45% tax rate U-turn – UK politics live

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Chancellor expected to give changed address after confirming plan to axe top rate of income tax has been scrapped

Q: Where does this leave your credibility?

Kwarteng says he has been in parliament for 12 years. He says ministers do sometimes change their minds.

I decided, along with the the prime minister, not to proceed [with the policy].

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Mini-budget 2022: pound crashes as chancellor cuts stamp duty and top rate of income tax – live

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Tax cuts to cost Treasury around £37bn in 2023-24, official figures reveal

There are no urgent questions in the morning, and so Kwasi Kwarteng, the chancellor, will be delivering his statement soon after 9.30am.

The Commons starts sitting at 9.30am, but they always begin with prayers in private, and so Kwarteng will be up a few minutes later.

The last time they did it one third of the beneficiaries were people buying second homes or buy to let, so we are sceptical that this is the magic bullet to increase homeownership. What we really need to do is to build more houses and to help get people onto the property ladder by increasing the supply of housing.

When this has been done before, it has often fuelled an already hot market and many of the beneficiaries have been people buying a second or third home, rather than the first time buyers that we really want to help who are often trapped in private rented accommodation where they’re paying as much in rent every month as they would in a mortgage.

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Tory leadership hustings – Birmingham: Liz Truss confirms she will allow new grammar schools – as it happened

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This live blog is now closed. You can read our latest story on the leadership contest here:

The cross-party Commons Treasury committee has expressed concerns about reports that Liz Truss, the frontrunner in the Tory leadership contest, may hold an emergency budget in September without asking the Office for Budget Responsibility to update its fiscal and economic forecast.

The OBR usually publishes a new forecast alongside a budget, and it provides an independent assessment of what impact the budget measures will have. The system was put in place by George Osborne to discourage the Treasury from making dubious claims about what its tax and spending announcements might be able to achieve.

OBR forecasts provide transparency and reassurance to the markets on the health of the nation’s finances. As a committee, we expect the Treasury to be supporting and enabling the OBR to publish an independent forecast at the time of any significant fiscal event, especially where, unlike other recent fiscal interventions, this might include significant permanent tax cuts.

Whether such an event is actually called a budget or not is immaterial. The reassurance of independent forecasting is vital in these economically turbulent times. To bring in significant tax cuts without a forecast would be ill advised. It is effectively ‘flying blind’.

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UK’s 10% inflation casts doubt on Truss and Sunak’s tax cut promises

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Soaring cost of living is forcing up government spending on benefits, pensions and debt leaving no spare cash to lower taxes

Britain’s first double-digit inflation in more than four decades has cast doubts on the plausibility of the tax cuts being promised by Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak during their leadership battle, one of the UK’s leading thinktanks has said.

Following news that the government’s preferred measure of the cost of living rose by 10.1% in the year to July, the Institute for Fiscal Studies said higher inflation would mean extra spending on welfare benefits, state pensions and on debt interest.

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Tory leadership race: Rishi Sunak calls himself ‘common sense’ Thatcherite – as it happened

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Former chancellor says UK ‘needs to control borders’ and again references Margaret Thatcher

In an interview with GB News, Liz Truss was asked if she would keep the expensive wallpaper in the Downing Street flat, installed as part of Boris Johnson’s controversial refurbishment, if she became PM. In what is being seen by some as a dig at Johnson, she replied:

I’m not going to have the time to be thinking about the wallpaper in No 10, because we’ve only got two years until the general election – we need to hit the ground running.

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Rishi Sunak tackled over failure to help poorest families

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Experts say absolute poverty could hit a fifth of UK population following chancellor’s mini-budget

Rishi Sunak has sought to defend his mini-budget against accusations he failed to shield Britain’s poorest families from the worst hit to living standards in six decades, as economists warned 1.3 million people will fall into absolute poverty next year.

Amid heavy criticism of Wednesday’s spring statement from opposition leaders and his own back benches, experts from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) and Resolution Foundation thinktanks said the chancellor could have done more to help those most at need.

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Budget 2020: Sunak’s plans for current spending ‘nothing like as generous as they appear’, says IFS – live news

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Rolling coverage of the day’s political developments as they happen

These are from the Telegraph’s Gordon Rayner.

Sources in Scotland insist Sturgeon's announcement of ban on gatherings of 500+ from Monday is a "UK-wide" policy. This morning Westminster sources were steering away from crowd bans. Has Sturgeon jumped the gun on something Boris was going to announce next week?

(Sturgeon is not averse to stealing people's thunder to make it look as though she is the one doing all the leading)

The Scottish Green party has cancelled its spring conference, which was due to take place on Saturday 28 March, because of the coronavirus outbreak after the number of cases declared in Scotland jumped to 60 on Thursday.

Ross Greer MSP, a co-chair of the party’s executive, said:

Due to the ongoing coronavirus situation the Scottish Greens executive committee has today taken the decision to cancel our upcoming conference. The health and wellbeing of our members and the public is our primary concern and it is with that in mind that we have taken this decision.

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