Category Archives: Economic growth (GDP)

Trump tariffs would halve UK growth and push up prices, says thinktank

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NIESR warns British economy would be one of the worst affected by protectionist policies

UK growth is likely to be halved by Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential race if goes on to impose the swingeing new tariffs he has threatened, a leading thinktank has warned.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said the protectionist measures planned by the Republican challenger for the White House would result in weaker activity, rising inflation and higher interest rates from the Bank of England.

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OBR says budget unlikely to lift economic growth over next five years

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Forecaster says extra spending revealed by Rachel Reeves will give only a short-term lift to economy

Labour has embarked on a “large, sustained increase in spending, tax and borrowing”, according to the government’s economic forecaster, as it judged that Labour’s first budget for 15 years is unlikely to increase economic growth over the next five years.

Assessing Rachel Reeves’s policies, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said the economy would expand at the same rate as predicted in March by the end of the parliament, despite a £70bn-a-year rise in spending.

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Jeremy Hunt claims Labour changing debt definition will ‘punish families with mortgages’ – as it happened

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Former chancellor says ‘increasing borrowing means interest rates would be higher for longer’ as Reeves says it will ‘make space for investment’

Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, has said that “no one knows” who Robert Jenrick, the Tory leadership contender, is.

Of the two candidates left in the contest, Jenrick is the one who is doing most to appeal to Tories who defected to Reform UK, because he is saying Britain should leave the European convention on human rights.

I know the fella. Is he the chap that one day was on the very much on the left of the Conservative party and is now on the right of the Conservative Party?... No one knows who he is.

I’m sure government can agree that support and providing opportunities for young people should be central to the policy of any government. We are glad to see the government working to build closer economic and cultural ties with Europe. We want to forge a new partnership with our European neighbours, built on cooperation, not confrontation and move to a new comprehensive agreement.

We must build rebuild confidence through seeking to agree partnerships or associations helping to restore prosperity and opportunities for British people.

We are not going to give a running commentary on the negotiations. We will obviously look at EU proposals on a range of issues, but we are clear that we will not return to freedom of movement.

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IMF warns Trump trade tariffs could dent global economy as it upgrades UK outlook

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New report upgrades outlook for UK economy with growth now forecast at 1.1% rather than 0.7%

The International Monetary Fund has warned the trade tariffs favoured by US presidential candidate Donald Trump could hurt global growth, as it upgraded its forecast for the UK economy.

The Washington-based organisation said tariffs trigger tit-for-tat trade wars that impoverish the economies involved in the dispute and the wider global economy.

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UK interest rates to fall to 2.75% by next autumn, Goldman Sachs predicts

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Economists at investment bank say markets are underestimating likely extent of action by Bank of England

Interest rates are on course to fall to 2.75% by next autumn after the Bank of England reduces the cost of borrowing at each of its nine next meetings, a leading investment bank has predicted.

Economists at Goldman Sachs said that, according to their assessment of the long-term level of interest rates consistent with achieving the government’s 2% inflation target, markets were underestimating the likely extent of the action by Threadneedle Street’s nine-strong monetary policy committee (MPC).

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Will Rachel Reeves’s rules on debt and spending survive the budget?

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The chancellor desperately needs more money to finance growth and public spending so expect a bit of tweaking to supposedly strict constraints

Change*. If Labour’s one-word campaign slogan had an asterisk, it would have directed voters to Rachel Reeves’s budget.

Later this month the chancellor will attempt to walk the line between repairing Britain’s battered public realm, while sticking to a manifesto promise to balance the books without raising taxes on working people.

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UK economy to grow faster than Japan, Italy and Germany this year, says OECD

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Forecast upgrades UK to joint second after US but it is still expected to have highest inflation among G7 countries

The global economy is “turning a corner”, according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, which has upgraded the UK’s growth forecast for this year to faster than that of Japan, Italy and Germany.

The OECD’s latest outlook ranked Britain joint second among the G7 developed countries in its latest outlook for the world economy. However, the UK is still expected to have the highest inflation in the group.

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‘There’s something in the air’: UK airport expansion gears up for takeoff

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Lobbyists are increasingly confident about expansion plans as concerns for the economy start to deepen

The younger, tormented minister mulling his position before the Labour government granted Heathrow’s third runway in 2009 might have been greatly relieved to know that, 15 years later, not a shovel would have touched the ground.

But now, returning to power with a revamped energy and climate brief, Ed Miliband again finds himself in a cabinet which, many in aviation hope, may usher in bigger airports and more flights – as well as enough CO2 emissions to outweigh any new solar farms.

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UK economy unexpectedly flatlines for second month in row

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Pre-election slowdown continues in July despite economists predicting growth of 0.2%

The anticipated post-election bounceback in the UK economy failed to materialise as activity flatlined in July for a second month, , according to the latest official data.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the pre-election stalling of activity in June was followed by another month in which gross domestic product remained unchanged.

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UK economy continues recovery from recession with GDP growth of 0.6%

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ONS data shows strong performance in second quarter with service sector helping drive growth

Britain’s economy has extended its recovery from recession after recording growth of 0.6% in the three months to June, handing a boost to the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, in the run-up to the autumn budget.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show gross domestic product continued to grow in the second quarter, after a rise of 0.7% in the first three months of 2024. The reading matched the forecasts of City economists.

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Jobs market and pay growth are cooling off, large UK employers and recruiters warn

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Survey reveals net fall in permanent jobs last month amid lengthening slowdown in employment market

The UK’s largest employers have warned the jobs market is cooling amid a slowdown in wage growth in July and a fall in vacancies, extending an almost two-year downturn in hiring demand for permanent staff.

Figures from the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) and the accountancy firm KPMG showed a fall in permanent staff placements in July as large employers made more redundancies and hired fewer new starters.

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UK recovery ‘will accelerate and force Bank to keep interest rates higher for longer’

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Niesr forecasts raise doubts over chance of further cuts by Bank of England before end of year

The UK’s economic recovery will accelerate over the next year, forcing the Bank of England to keep interest rates higher for longer, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (Niesr).

Signalling that bets on further interest rate cuts before the end of the year could be misplaced, the thinktank said a modest economic recovery and the threat from persistent inflationary trends should make the central bank more cautious about reducing the cost of borrowing.

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Relief for borrowers as UK interest rates cut but little sign big reductions to come

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Incremental cuts likely over two to three years with rates expected to stay well above pre-Covid levels of 0.75%

Borrowers will breathe a collective sigh of relief. The Bank of England has cut interest rates by a quarter point to 5% and major lenders are shaving their best-buy mortgage offers in response.

Those wanting to get on the housing ladder should find property slightly more affordable after the cut, which ends a year of ultra-high borrowing costs and is the first rate cut in more than four years.

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How bad are Britain’s finances? Five questions on the state of the UK economy | Phillip Inman

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Several factors restrict the Labour government’s room for manoeuvre in its agenda for growth

The economic outlook is improving, but a recovery from last year’s recession will be long and arduous without a boost to public investment.

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UK must move towards disease prevention to save economy and NHS, says expert

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Personalised ‘pre-NHS’ could stop onset of disease and offer health checks in places people live, work and socialise

The creation of a “pre-NHS” focusing on preventive healthcare could unlock billionsfor the UK within two decades, according to the head of a taskforce investigating radical new improvements to the nation’s wellbeing.

Prof John Deanfield, the first-ever government champion for personalised prevention, has concluded that a parallel health service is required to save an NHS struggling to heal an increasingly unhealthy public.

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Mandatory housing targets at core of economy-focused king’s speech

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Planning reforms and transport policies included in package of more than 35 bills as Labour prioritises growth

Local councils will have to adopt mandatory housing targets within months under planning reforms to be unveiled on Wednesday as part of Keir Starmer’s first king’s speech, which the prime minister says will be focused on economic growth.

Starmer will introduce a package of more than 35 bills on Wednesday, the first Labour prime minister to do so in 15 years, as he looks to put the economy at the centre of his first year in office.

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Labour will not boost military spend without economic growth, says minister

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Comments come as PM begins two-day US visit to urge Nato member countries to increase defence spending

The Labour government will not increase spending on the military unless it is also able to grow the economy, the armed forces minister has said, as Keir Starmer comes under pressure to say when Britain’s defence spending will hit 2.5% of GDP.

Luke Pollard said on Wednesday the government wanted to hit the target promised by the former prime minister Rishi Sunak, but would not be able to do so without economic growth.

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French stock market swings to gain after election surprise; Britvic agrees to improved Carlsberg offer – business live

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Live coverage of business, economics and markets after New Popular Front is largest party in second round of France’s election, with far-right third

The French election has meant that Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) will not be in power, but it has not settled what France’s new government will look like.

The New Popular Front (NFP), the hastily arranged coalition of left-wing parties, won the most seats, but it is far short of a parliamentary majority. The result will mean a lot of negotiation to agree on who will be the new prime minister – let alone on achieving anything meaningful in governing the country.

The French parliament is more divided than ever, made up mainly of three blocs (Left – 182 seats, Centre – 168 seats, Extreme Right – 143 seats) and a number of smaller ones. As we predicted before the elections, no bloc can claim an absolute majority.

Minority government

French political parties “are not used to making concessions in order to create a programme around a coalition with other parties”, and the NFP’s most prominent figure, Jean-Luc Mélenchon demanded its entire programme be implemented. “If political parties maintain such positions, a long period of instability will ensue,” said Ledent.

Learning to cooperate

“Excluding the 80 MPs from the far left and the 145 from the far right, there are over 350 MPs left to form a broad coalition ready to reform France, taking into account the diversity of opinions. In other European countries, including Germany, such a configuration would be quite natural and would result in a government with a clear majority.

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Starmer’s growth plan ‘doomed’ without access to EU markets, warn economists

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Labour leader told if elected he will have to rejoin the customs union to meet party’s manifesto pledges, while 56% of voters say Brexit was bad for economy

A Labour government under Keir Starmer will fail to maximise the UK’s economic growth unless it takes the country back into the European Union’s single market and customs union, leading economists and diplomats have said.

The warnings come as an Opinium poll for the Observer finds that 56% of voters now believe Brexit has been bad for the UK economy as a whole, compared with just 12% who believe it has been economically beneficial.

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Invest in childhood to unlock £45.5bn a year, says Princess of Wales’s taskforce

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Report from group set up by Catherine says business can improve early years and benefit all of society

Business investment in early childhood could unlock £45.5bn in value a year for the UK economy, according to a report by a taskforce created by the Princess of Wales.

In the report, CEOs from eight leading companies urged “businesses of all sizes across the UK, to join us and help build a healthy, happy society for everyone”.

The Co-operative Group creating a specific early childhood fund as part of its unique apprenticeship levy share scheme, and committing to raise £5m over the next five years, creating more than 600 apprenticeships.

Deloitte focusing its ongoing investment in Teach First to include the early years sector for the first time, supporting 366 early years professionals in 2024.

NatWest Group extending its lending target for the childcare sector to £100m, launching an early years accreditation scheme to its staff and producing a financial toolkit for childcare providers to help them grow and succeed.

Ikea UK and Ireland expanding its contribution of support, design expertise and products for babies and young children to six new locations across the UK to help families with young children experiencing the greatest disadvantage.

The Lego Group donating 3,000 LEGO® Education Build Me “Emotions” sets, supported by training materials, to early years providers in the UK.

Iceland Foods providing learning, awareness and support in all 1,000 Iceland and The Food Warehouse stores by featuring emoji posters at a child-friendly height – a practical tool to help customers with young children and to create a space of understanding and support in stores.

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