Category Archives: Economics

OBR halves UK growth forecast and warns inflation will exceed 2% target until 2025

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Despite £27bn windfall for the autumn statement, government forecaster warns of generally more difficult outlook until 2028

The government’s official forecaster has slashed its predictions for economic growth over the next two years, and warned that inflation could take until 2025 to come back to the official 2% target.

In an updated financial health check to accompany the autumn statement, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said a more resilient economy this year had handed the chancellor a £27bn budget windfall, but it warned of a more difficult outlook up to 2028 than previously forecast at the time of the budget in March.

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Eurozone banks starting to show ‘stress’ as loan defaults rise, ECB warns

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Rising interest rates have boosted profitability but are likely to limit demand and increase risk of bad debts, says central bank

The balance sheets of eurozone banks are showing “early signs of stress” after a rise in loan defaults and late payments by customers, the European Central Bank has warned.

Higher interest rates have boosted banks’ income and profits for the time being, the ECB said, but lenders are facing pressures from higher funding costs, worsening asset quality and lower lending volumes.

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Autumn statement: Jeremy Hunt looks to cut UK taxes and ‘turbo-charge growth’

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Amid less gloomy OBR forecasts the chancellor is expected to take first steps towards cutting personal taxes

Jeremy Hunt will announce 110 measures to boost Britain’s stagnant economy and bow to demands from anxious Tory MPs for tax cuts when he delivers his second autumn statement on Wednesday.

In one of the last set-piece economic events before the general election, the chancellor will pledge to “turbo charge” growth while taking the first steps to cut personal taxes after recent sharp increases.

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UK borrows less than expected this year as Hunt lines up giveaways

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Chancellor says bringing down inflation remains one of his main aims as he prepares autumn statement

The UK government borrowed less than expected in the first seven months of the financial year as Jeremy Hunt puts the last-minute touches to a series of pre-election giveaways in his autumn statement on Wednesday.

Public sector borrowing between April and October was just above £98bn, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), and while this was £22bn higher than in the same period last year, it was almost £17bn less than the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast in March.

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Would Javier Milei’s dollar plan for Argentina be an economic experiment too far?

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President-elect’s idea is a gamble that is likely to crash an economy paying the price for mistakes of his predecessor

Javier Milei’s bigger-than-expected victory in the Argentinan presidential election suggests voters in South America’s second biggest country have willingly opted for shock treatment to sort out the country’s deep economic malaise.

It is perhaps not hard to see why 56% of the electorate backed the rightwing libertarian: Argentina may have the world’s best football team but its economy has performed disastrously in recent years. Inflation is running at 140% and a three-year drought has led to a sharp fall in agricultural production. Two out of five people live in poverty and the currency has lost 90% of its value in four years.

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Sunak says he will cut taxes ‘over time’ as he reveals new economic priorities

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PM signals that business tax cuts more likely than personal ones as he sets out ‘next phase’ of government’s economic plan

Rishi Sunak has hinted at business tax cuts to boost economic growth as he promised to reduce the tax burden “carefully and sustainably” and “over time”.

In a speech on Monday the prime minister declined to give any specifics before the autumn statement, but stressed the focus was “very much the supply side” of the economy in a signal that business tax cuts are more likely than personal ones.

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Autumn statement will avoid tax cuts that promote inflation, pledges Hunt

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Chancellor seeks to promote growth ahead of autumn statement that could spark a rebellion among Tory backbenchers defending marginal seats

Jeremy Hunt has played down the prospect of immediate income tax cuts, pledging not to do anything in this week’s autumn statement that will fuel inflation.

Although some Conservative backbenchers are eager for measures that would be quickly felt by households, the chancellor on Sunday sought to emphasise the need to promote growth and indicated that tax cuts were “not going to happen overnight”.

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Jeremy Hunt faces red wall revolt if he delivers ‘a budget for the rich’

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The chancellor’s potential inheritance tax cut in Wednesday’s budget would aid millionaires amid a cost of living crisis

Jeremy Hunt faces a backlash from “red wall” Tory MPs if he uses a fiscal windfall of up to £20bn to deliver tax cuts for the rich rather than to help ordinary families with the cost of living, the Observer has been told.

The chancellor and Rishi Sunak are this weekend finalising an autumn statement on Wednesday that could include a major reduction in inheritance tax – four-fifths of which would benefit those with more than £1m at their death, according to a new report from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS). Each person with more than £1m would receive an average tax cut of £180,000, the IFS states.

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Charities urge government not to ‘fiddle’ benefits increase after inflation hits two-year low – as it happened

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Cost of living campaigners say government should use September’s inflation rate to set benefits, not October’s, after CPI falls to 4.6% from 6.7%

Falling energy bills, and the economic drag caused by higher interest rates, should get the credit for the drop in inflation.

That’s the view of Suren Thiru, economics director at ICAEW (The Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales).

“This dramatic drop suggests that the UK has turned the corner in its battle against soaring inflation, particularly given the fall in core inflation, which indicates that underlying price pressures are also easing.

“While the Prime Minister has achieved his target to halve inflation this year, this owes more to the downward pressure on prices from falling energy costs and rising interest rates than any government action.

“The fall in inflation will come as some relief for families struggling with the cost of living.

“But now is not the time for Conservative ministers to be popping champagne corks and patting themselves on the back.

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Labour motion to ban Truss-style budget meltdowns puts pressure on Tory MPs

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Party loyalty would force Conservatives to vote against plan for fiscal responsibility

Read more: ‘I challenge Rishi Sunak: vote with Labour to stop a Truss-style disaster happening again,’ writes Rachel Reeves

Labour will force a Commons vote this week aimed at creating new legal safeguards against fiscal disasters such as Liz Truss’s catastrophic mini-budget, which sent the financial markets into meltdown and drove up mortgage rates.

The party’s plan for a “fiscal lock” to protect personal, family and the national finances from reckless politicians will be contained in an amendment to the king’s speech that will be voted on by MPs on Tuesday. The manoeuvre will present Conservative backbenchers with a dilemma over whether to back a Labour amendment, or vote against what is a plan designed to embed fiscal responsibility into the budgetary process, and protect it from wild or accidental political misjudgments.

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Hunt urged to invest £30bn a year in infrastructure or risk ‘decade in doldrums’

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Thinktank says stronger than expected tax revenues have given chancellor scope for bold package in autumn statement

Jeremy Hunt risks condemning Britain to a decade in the doldrums unless he uses this month’s autumn statement to announce a £30bn-a-year investment plan to upgrade public infrastructure, a leading thinktank has warned.

The National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said the chancellor should ignore calls by Tory MPs for pre-election tax cuts and instead focus on measures to boost growth through improvements to transport, digital networks, skills and housing.

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AI Pictionary and a ‘robo-dog’ make UK shops’ hottest Christmas toy lists

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Retailers hope new version of top-selling board game plus Dog-E will help fuel festive sales recovery

A new version of Pictionary that pits artist against artificial intelligence and a pet “robo-dog” with a wagging tail are among the toys destined to appear on Christmas lists this year as retailers pray for better sales during the key festive trading period.

With the cost of living crisis looming large over another year’s celebrations, the Toy Retailers Association’s annual DreamToys list of the 20 “hottest” gifts includes a dozen that are under £50. Among them is Pictionary vs AI (£24), a new version of the classic board game that pitches (terrible) human sketches against the might of AI processing power.

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UK housing market is past its ‘peak pain’, declares Savills

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Upmarket estate agent says prices will start to bottom out in 2024 as interest rates fall and will return to growth in 2025

Britain’s housing market is past “peak pain” and prices look likely to bottom out by next summer, according to the estate agency Savills.

The average UK house price is projected to fall by 3% in 2024, after a 4% drop this year, the upmarket estate agent and property advisory firm said in its five-year outlook.

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UK recession fears grow as shoppers cut spending ‘to save for Christmas’

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Drop in retail sales also because of consumer worries over high energy bills and mortgages, surveys suggest

Fears that the UK is heading for a recession this winter have intensified amid signs Britain’s hard-pressed households are cutting spending as they save for Christmas and higher fuel bills.

Two monthly snapshots of retail activity found shops and online outlets struggling because of consumer budgets being squeezed by dearer mortgages and the UK’s lingering cost of living crisis.

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Middle East war could spark global recession, say Wall Street experts

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Fear adds to Russia-Ukraine conflict risk and increases ‘probability of European and of US recession’

A global recession could be triggered by the conflict in the Middle East as the humanitarian crisis compounds the challenges facing an already precarious world economy, two of Wall Street’s biggest names warned this weekend.

Larry Fink, chief executive of the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, said a combination of the Hamas atrocities of 7 October, Israel’s resultant attack on Gaza and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year had pushed the world “almost to a whole new future”.

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Keir Starmer defends his call for humanitarian pause in Gaza, saying it is quickest way to provide help – UK politics live

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Labour leader says he thinks most practical way to get aid into Gaza is to have a humanitarian pause

Keir Starmer is delivering his speech to the North East Chamber of Commerce now.

He starts by saying they are near the A1, where there is a stretch of road that Rishi Sunak recently promised to upgrade.

It’s a story you see right across Britain. Infrastructure projects, some with billions already committed, businesses planning around the structures developed in rooms like this.

But the projects and investment get blocked by objections, consultations, legal challenges, ballooning costs delays, delays, delays – until it’s easier just to give up and move on.

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Maersk to cut 10,000 jobs as shipping demand drops

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Danish company has axed 6,500 of those roles already, with global economic slowdown taking toll

One of the world’s largest shipping companies, Møller-Maersk, is cutting 10,000 jobs because of a drop in demand triggered by the global economic slowdown.

The Danish company said it had already started cutting staff but was planning on “intensifying” cost-saving measures in order to safeguard its financial performance as price forecasts worsened.

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Eurozone economy shrinks by 0.1%, putting it at brink of recession

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Ireland and Austria post biggest declines, while Germany contracts by 0.1% and France grows by 0.1%

The eurozone is teetering on the brink of a winter recession after the latest official figures showed its economy contracted by 0.1% in the third quarter of 2023.

In a worse than forecast performance, the 20-nation single currency zone has now failed to grow in three of the past four quarters, leaving its economy only 0.1% higher than it was a year earlier.

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Higher interest rates help HSBC to more than double profits

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Bank criticised by MPs for being too slow to reward savers as it announces 15% rise in net interest income and $3bn share buyback

Higher interest rates helped HSBC to more than double its profits and hand over $3bn (£2.5bn) to shareholders, as MPs criticised the largest UK banks for being too slow to reward savers.

The London-headquartered bank said it was launching a share buyback, and paying a dividend worth 10 cents a share, after what its chief executive, Noel Quinn, hailed as “three consecutive quarters of strong financial performance”.

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Why king’s speech could be pivotal policy moment for Sunak’s survival

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Constrained on multiple fronts by finances and resistance from both wings of his party, the PM still has a few vote-winning options

Exhausted by scandals, deflated by byelection defeats and uninspired by their leader at Conservative party conference, many of Rishi Sunak’s MPs are not looking forward to the next year in politics. “It’s hard to muster the enthusiasm to come out fighting given everything that has happened,” said one Tory adviser.

But Sunak appears still to be energised by the prospect of governing for at least another 12 months – and has explicitly said he wants to get things done in the next year. “What can a country achieve in 52 weeks? Watch this space,” his new promotional video said this week.

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