Category Archives: Inflation

Inflation data isn’t all sunshine and rainbows for Labor – as Biden and Democrats will attest

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While a pre-election rate cut is widely seen as positive for incumbent governments, it doesn’t necessarily represent a path to victory in itself

The Reserve Bank of Australia is designed to be independent of government, but that does not mean its decisions do not have political consequences.

After Wednesday’s better-than-expected inflation reading, there is now broad consensus among economists that the RBA will cut interest rates next month.

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Inflation figures to ‘make or break’ the case for an Australian pre-election February rate cut

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Release of December quarterly CPI may be the most politically consequential set of numbers in recent times

Inflation figures due out on Wednesday could “make or break” the case for a pre-election rate cut next month, according to economists, in one of the most politically consequential set of numbers of recent times.

The market is pricing in an 84% chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets mid-next month, although those odds will rise or fall based on the December quarterly consumer price index.

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Government under pressure on economy as British households anticipate worsening finances

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CBI says businesses plan to cut jobs and raise prices while debt charity says millions are ‘facing worries’

The government is under growing pressure to get momentum back into the economy amid warnings that businesses plan to cut jobs and raise prices, while millions of families believe their finances will worsen this year.

Before a major speech this week by the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, designed to restate Labour’s commitment to improving the economy, the CBI said private sector firms were urgently assessing their budgets to offset measures announced in last October’s budget.

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One in six UK workers skipping meals to make ends meet, says TUC

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Trade unions body finds 17% have skipped meal in past three months, and as many as 10% do so most days

As many as one in six workers in Britain are skipping meals to make ends meet as households remain under pressure from the higher cost of groceries, energy and other essentials.

Highlighting the impact of the cost of living crisis on working households, figures from the Trades Union Congress (TUC) showed 17% of full- or part-time workers had skipped a meal to reduce their spending in the past three months.

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Retailers warn inflation could hamper UK shoppers in run-up to Christmas

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British Retail Consortium figures come alongside data showing a fall in household disposable income

Shoppers’ ability to afford Christmas treats has been put under threat as retailers warned November could mark a turning point for inflation, with the recent fall in prices slowing amid increased fresh produce costs and fewer discounts on the shelves.

Shop prices fell by 0.6% in November, compared with a fall of 0.8% in October, according to the latest report from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) and research firm NielsenIQ. The slowdown in deflation was driven by non-food goods and a slight increase in fresh food prices, including seafood.

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Energy bills, mortgages, food: will cost of living surge again under Labour?

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The government claims to be fixing the economy but households may face more pressure in the months ahead

Labour swept to power in the wake of a cost of living crisis that hit households hard, with the price of food and energy rocketing alongside the impact of Liz Truss’s disastrous mini-budget on mortgage rates.

At 2.3%, inflation is nowhere the 10% peak after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but it is creeping up, and could hit 3% in 2025, say forecasters.

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UK’s inflation jump dashes hope of interest rate cut in December | Heather Stewart

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Rate cut unlikely until 2025 as energy prices blamed for stronger-than-expected inflation of 2.3%

Any lingering hope that the Bank of England might deliver a pre-Christmas interest rate cut next month appears to have evaporated, after official data showed inflation jumping to 2.3% in October.

The CPI measure had been expected to tick up, after dipping to 1.7% in September, but 2.3% was stronger than expected.

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Australia ‘not immune from trade tensions’, Chalmers says of incoming Trump presidency

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Treasurer says he spoke about tariffs to a ‘key member’ of Republican’s economic team before the US election

Australia’s economy will not be immune from escalating trade tensions, Jim Chalmers has warned, as the Albanese government prepares itself for an incoming Donald Trump administration.

In a speech to be delivered on Monday , the treasurer will outline the risks of an “uncertain world characterised by economic vulnerability and volatility” but will say the Australian government is “well-placed and well-prepared”.

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Fed chair says he will not resign even if pressured by Trump as interest rate cut

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Trump has been a persistent critic of the Fed, which lowered rates for the second time in a row as inflation continues to ease

US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said he would not resign if he received any pressure from Donald Trump’s new administration to step down as the central bank lowered interest rates by a quarter-point Tuesday afternoon.

Trump has been a persistent critic of the Fed and its independence, calling its officials “boneheads” in his last administration and arguing that he should have a role in setting interest rates.

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City analysts overwhelmingly predict Bank of England interest rate cut

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Rare agreement among forecasters gives 96% chance of today’s MPC meeting cutting borrowing costs to 4.75%

The Bank of England policymakers are widely expected to cut borrowing costs for businesses and homeowners by reducing official interest rates from 5% to 4.75% when they meet later today.

Financial markets are overwhelmingly forecasting that the Bank’s nine-strong monetary policy committee (MPC) will reduce rates for a second time when it announces its latest decision at noon.

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Inflation pain helped secure Trump win but his policies mean higher prices

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Markets expect his policy package to harm trade and growth but reduce business taxes

Higher share prices. A stronger dollar. A less rapid pace of interest rate cuts. The financial market reaction to Donald Trump’s return to the White House was swift and predictable.

The man who will become his country’s 47th president has made no secret of what he plans to do: cut taxes, impose heavy tariffs on imported goods, place curbs on migration, and slash red tape.

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Australia politics live: Albanese tells caucus Labor will campaign on ‘risk’ of Dutton; Miles returns as Queensland Labor leader

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‘We need to extend the average time people stay in our defence force,’ says Matt Keough

The defence personnel minister, Matt Keough, has also been talking about that retention and renumeration package for defence.

We need to extend the average time people stay in our defence force.

That does mean it had a vulnerability. We’re looking at moving to more of a mesh-type arrangement of satellites, which provides greater resilience, with a more up-to-date technology, and we’ll be able to deliver the technology faster as well.

We are very much confident that we can meet these targets and that’s because we have properly funded them and we have a plan to get there, which is about really improving the terms of service for those who work in our defence forces.

We’re increasing and expanding the bonuses for continuing on in the defence force. We’re continuing the original retention bonus after your initial service obligation for three years and beyond that. There will be another bonus for people who stay in the defence force after that. And that’s really targeting those who are in their seventh, eighth, ninth years of service, which gets to the middle ranks where we’ve got an issue. And we’re also going to grow the active reserves so there are more opportunities for people in the reserve to do full-time or part-time work in the defence force.

This original plan goes back seven or eight years and it was about having two or three satellites above Australia to deliver that capability. Since then, we have seen technologies develop which can shoot satellites out of the sky but we have also seen technologies develop where you have thousands of micro satellites in a more distributed way providing the same effect and we are seeing that with Starlink above Ukraine.

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ECB cuts interest rates to support flagging eurozone economy

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Fall in inflation enables central bank to bring in quarter point cut to 3.25% after business and consumer slowdown

The European Central Bank has intervened to prevent a sharp slowdown in the eurozone economy with its first back-to-back interest rate cut since the euro crisis in 2011.

With Germany on the brink of a recession and inflation tumbling across the 20 member single currency bloc, the ECB followed a reduction in the cost of borrowing at its previous meeting in September with a further 0.25 percentage point cut in its key deposit rate to 3.25%.

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Surprise fall in UK inflation badly timed for benefit recipients

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Payments such as universal credit linked to previous September’s figure, meaning a rise of just 1.7% in April

Last month’s surprise fall in UK inflation lands with bad timing for millions of people who receive state benefits linked to the figure, who can now expect their payments to rise by just 1.7% next April.

A number of benefits, including universal credit, are increased each tax year in line with the cost of living figure for the previous September.

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UK inflation falls below 2% for first time since 2021 in boost to Rachel Reeves

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Surprise annual drop to 1.7% in September raises chance of interest rate cuts, increasing budget leeway

Inflation in the UK has fallen to its lowest level in three and a half years, giving a pre-budget boost to Rachel Reeves as expectations grow for the Bank of England to cut interest rates.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics show the consumer prices index dropped sharply to 1.7%, down from 2.2% in August, in a bigger fall than anticipated in financial markets, driven by lower air fares and petrol prices.

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Assange says he is free because he ‘pled guilty to journalism’ – as it happened

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This blog is now closed

National weather forecasts

Sticking with the weather, here’s a look at the forecasts across Australia’s capital cities today:

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Australia’s housing crisis may be starting to ease as home prices fall in four capital cities

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New data also shows auction figures softening while rent rises are at their slowest pace in years

Australia’s housing crisis may be starting to ease with dwelling price rises tapering off and rents increasing at their slowest pace in four years, data groups say.

Property values increased 0.4% in September, close to the 0.3% rise recorded for both the previous two months, CoreLogic reported. PropTrack’s housing index was basically flat, rising just 0.04% for the month.

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Poverty in Argentina soars to over 50% as Milei’s austerity measures hit hard

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Far-right president has been battling inflation by imposing steep cuts in spending, resulting in widespread poverty

Argentina’s poverty rate has soared to almost 53% in the first six months of Javier Milei’s presidency, offering the first hard evidence of how the far-right libertarian’s tough austerity measures are hitting the population.

The new poverty rate, reported by the government’s statistics agency on Thursday, is the highest level for two decades, when the country reeled from a catastrophic economic crisis, and means 3.4 million Argentinians have been pushed into poverty this year.

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Stock markets hit record highs after news of a fall in US inflation

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S&P 500 index of major US companies registers near 100% gain on year ago amid expectation of interest rate cuts

A fall in US inflation expected to pave the way for further cuts in interest rates pushed stock markets to record highs on Friday.

Ending a week of gains that began when the Chinese authorities approved a huge economic stimulus package, the S&P 500 index of major US companies soared above 5,750 to register a near 100% gain on a year ago.

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UK economy to grow faster than Japan, Italy and Germany this year, says OECD

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Forecast upgrades UK to joint second after US but it is still expected to have highest inflation among G7 countries

The global economy is “turning a corner”, according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, which has upgraded the UK’s growth forecast for this year to faster than that of Japan, Italy and Germany.

The OECD’s latest outlook ranked Britain joint second among the G7 developed countries in its latest outlook for the world economy. However, the UK is still expected to have the highest inflation in the group.

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