Jeremy Hunt fuels election speculation as 6 March spring budget announced

Chancellor has asked the OBR to prepare forecasts for the economy and public finances to be presented to parliament

Jeremy Hunt has announced that a spring budget expected to feature a host of tax cuts will be held on 6 March, fuelling speculation over an early general election.

While government sources insisted nothing should be read into the date, it is the earliest the set-piece fiscal event has been held in 13 years of Conservative government – apart from 2021 when the Treasury was trying to kickstart the economy after Covid.

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How a spring UK budget could fire the starting gun for an early election

UK economic prospects are bleak but an agenda-setting fiscal event such as sweeping tax cuts in March offers another roll of the dice

To grasp the nettle, or wait in the hope that things somehow miraculously improve. This is the choice Rishi Sunak will be weighing for the next general election, as the Conservatives limp towards the finishing line of another challenging year.

After Jeremy Hunt announced the government would hold an earlier than anticipated budget, with a date set for 6 March, the possibility of a poll in May, in the afterglow of some electioneering tax cuts, is clearly being given considerable thought.

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Boxing Day footfall rises but number of shoppers is well down on pre-Covid levels

Weaker Christmas spending amid cost of living crisis and fewer shops opening cut visitor numbers by 30% on 2019

Retailers have recorded a small pickup in Boxing Day footfall, but visits to stores remained well below pre-pandemic levels as several high street chains stayed shut.

Retailers have been braced for weak spending over the Christmas period as the UK economy stagnates amid the cost of living crisis.

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UK inflation in unexpectedly steep fall to 3.9% amid lower bread and fuel prices

Forecast-beating drop in November takes rate to lowest level in more than two years

Britain’s two-year cost of living crisis eased last month as cheaper petrol and less expensive food helped send the annual inflation rate sharply lower to 3.9% – its second big monthly fall in succession.

In a much bigger decline than had been anticipated by economists, the annual rate of price rises fell from 4.6% in October to its lowest level since September 2021.

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Drop in UK inflation is welcome but does not erase two years of pain

Food prices were 29% higher last month than in September 2021, leaving many households still under pressure

At last, UK inflation has fallen far and fast enough to start to match countries such as France, where the annual rate of price rises has reduced at a faster pace this year.

At 3.9% last month, the headline figure remains almost double the 2% target set for the Bank of England but significantly lower than the 11.1% peak in October last year and below the 5.3% target Rishi Sunak set for the end of 2023.

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Inflation calculator: find out how much UK household price rises affect you

This online tool will help you discover what is contributing to your household’s cost of living increases

Inflation has been soaring in the UK, with people being hit by higher prices for everyday essentials, but cost of living pressures are finally starting to ease.

The latest inflation rate for the 12 months to November 2023 means that goods and services cost 3.9% more than they did a year ago – in most cases, surpassing any pay rises workers can expect to receive.

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UK Christmas shoppers will pay more for less this year, say economists

Cost of festive season is up almost a quarter in three years, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research

Consumers will pay more for less this Christmas, economists have warned, getting less of a bang for their buck than the faint phutting of a puny, overpriced cracker being pulled.

Although Britons will spend more than in the belt-tightening 2022 festive season, the resultant fare won’t yet match the pre-pandemic Christmases past.

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Jeremy Hunt’s post-Brexit City shake-up is ‘damp squib’, say MPs

Treasury select committee says Edinburgh reforms launched a year ago have had little impact on UK economy

Jeremy Hunt’s post-Brexit City shake-up has been dismissed as a “damp squib” that has had little impact on the UK economy a year after its launch.

The chancellor announced the “bold collection” of policy changes known as the Edinburgh reforms in December 2022 with the claim they would “create jobs, support businesses and power growth across all four nations of the UK”.

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Millions will struggle to heat homes this Christmas, says UK’s National Debtline

About 2.7m will have to choose between buying food or presents as cost of living crisis bites

Millions of people will have to make stark financial choices this Christmas including choosing between buying food or presents and be unable to afford to keep their homes warm through the festive season, according to new research by National Debtline.

About 6.5 million people will struggle to heat their homes sufficiently this festive season, while 2.7 million will have to choose between buying food or presents, highlighting the drastic impact the cost of living crisis continues to have on household budgets.

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Rishi Sunak says immigration must fall but declines to say which new measures he backs – as it happened

Net migration to the UK in 2023 is estimated at 672,000, and the PM says a more ‘sustainable’ level is needed. This live blog is closed

When Nigel Farage was leading the Brexit party, it was considerably influential for a party with no MPs, winning the European elections in 2019 and helping to push the Conservative party into a harder position on Brexit. After the 2019 election it was renamed Reform UK, Richard Tice took over as leader and it became much more marginal. But in an interview on the Today programme this morning Tice claimed that the government’s failure to bring down immigration was presenting it with an opportunity. He told the programme:

The British people voted to control immigration, and the government have betrayed the people’s promises. And that’s why so many thousands of people, former Tory members, are joining us. Our polling numbers – we got record polling last week, four different polls where we’re in double figures. This week, we’ve had Tory donors joining us. Frankly, I fully expect Tory MPs who are furious and angry with the government to be calling me next week.

[Cleverly] has made the point that he says that it was not aimed at a particular place. Knowing James well, he’s not the sort of person, in my opinion, who would have made that kind of remark in that kind of context.

But he has accepted that this was certainly unparliamentary language and he has rightly apologised.

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Charities urge government not to ‘fiddle’ benefits increase after inflation hits two-year low – as it happened

Cost of living campaigners say government should use September’s inflation rate to set benefits, not October’s, after CPI falls to 4.6% from 6.7%

Falling energy bills, and the economic drag caused by higher interest rates, should get the credit for the drop in inflation.

That’s the view of Suren Thiru, economics director at ICAEW (The Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales).

“This dramatic drop suggests that the UK has turned the corner in its battle against soaring inflation, particularly given the fall in core inflation, which indicates that underlying price pressures are also easing.

“While the Prime Minister has achieved his target to halve inflation this year, this owes more to the downward pressure on prices from falling energy costs and rising interest rates than any government action.

“The fall in inflation will come as some relief for families struggling with the cost of living.

“But now is not the time for Conservative ministers to be popping champagne corks and patting themselves on the back.

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Millions of UK households forced to unplug fridge to cope with rising bills

Families resorting to ‘desperate measures’ and struggling with ‘frightening’ level of hardship amid cost of living crisis

About 2m UK households have been forced to turn off their fridge or freezer to save money as they continue to struggle with what poverty campaigners called a “frightening” level of hardship.

Nearly half of those households said that since May they had to disconnect their fridge or freezer for the first time, a sign the cost of living crisis was still hurting low-income families, according to the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) charity.

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Premature death of 80m chickens raises concerns over UK’s fast-growing breeds

Animal welfare groups urge retailers to switch to slow-growing birds in face of record deaths last year

More than 80 million chickens died before reaching slaughter weight in the UK last year, with mortality rates the highest for at least a decade, reveal official figures.

Animal welfare organisations say the fast-growing chicken breeds that dominate production have higher mortality rates, lameness and muscle disease than slower-growing breeds. They are calling on retailers to switch to slower-growing breeds and provide more space for the birds.

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AI Pictionary and a ‘robo-dog’ make UK shops’ hottest Christmas toy lists

Retailers hope new version of top-selling board game plus Dog-E will help fuel festive sales recovery

A new version of Pictionary that pits artist against artificial intelligence and a pet “robo-dog” with a wagging tail are among the toys destined to appear on Christmas lists this year as retailers pray for better sales during the key festive trading period.

With the cost of living crisis looming large over another year’s celebrations, the Toy Retailers Association’s annual DreamToys list of the 20 “hottest” gifts includes a dozen that are under £50. Among them is Pictionary vs AI (£24), a new version of the classic board game that pitches (terrible) human sketches against the might of AI processing power.

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UK recession fears grow as shoppers cut spending ‘to save for Christmas’

Drop in retail sales also because of consumer worries over high energy bills and mortgages, surveys suggest

Fears that the UK is heading for a recession this winter have intensified amid signs Britain’s hard-pressed households are cutting spending as they save for Christmas and higher fuel bills.

Two monthly snapshots of retail activity found shops and online outlets struggling because of consumer budgets being squeezed by dearer mortgages and the UK’s lingering cost of living crisis.

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FCA acts against PayPal and QVC as more Britons turn to buy now, pay later

Payments group and TV shopping channel change small print after financial regulator steps in

The City regulator has taken action after finding that customers of two leading buy now, pay later providers were “at risk of harm” because of potentially unfair and unclear small print.

The US-based online payments group PayPal and the TV shopping channel QVC have changed the terms of their contracts after the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) expressed “concern” over the impact to customers.

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Poll predicts landslide Labour election victory with 12 cabinet ministers losing their seats

Dramatic findings point to Conservatives losing every red wall seat that they secured at the last election

Labour is currently on course to win a landslide victory on the scale of 1997, according to dramatic new modelling that points to the Conservatives losing every red wall seat secured at the last election.

The Tories could also lose more than 20 constituencies in its southern blue wall strongholds and achieve a record-low number of seats, according to a constituency-by-constituency model seen by the Observer. Deputy prime minister Oliver Dowden, defence secretary Grant Shapps and leadership contender Penny Mordaunt are among those facing defeat. Some 12 cabinet ministers face being unseated unless Rishi Sunak can close Labour’s poll lead.

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Wetherspoon’s returns to profit for first time since Covid pandemic

Cost of living crisis drives consumers to low-cost pub chain but company remains cautious

JD Wetherspoon has bounced back to profit for the first time since the start of the coronavirus pandemic three years ago, as budget-conscious consumers flocked to the low-cost pub chain amid the cost of living crisis.

Wetherspoon’s, which runs about 830 pubs across the UK and Ireland, reported a pre-tax profit of almost £43m in the year to 30 July.

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UK families ‘eating less healthily’ due to cost of living crisis

BBC Good Food Nation survey finds 19% of Britons eating more processed foods because they are cheaper

Families are eating less healthily and turning to ready meals and processed foods due to the cost of living crisis, a study has found.

More than two-thirds of people (69%) said they considered themselves to be healthy eaters but 28% said they were eating less nutritious food because it is too expensive, according to the BBC Good Food Nation survey.

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Sandwich price shocks but meal deal costs rise less than average food inflation

Pret a Manger’s ‘posh’ cheese and pickle sandwich grabbed headlines for its £7.15 price tag, but it’s not all gloom

It’s not often that a cheese and pickle sandwich turns heads, but this week Pret a Manger’s “posh” version grabbed headlines after a tweet decrying its £7.15 price tag went viral.

Although that included VAT for eating in, the social media post shone a spotlight on the rising cost of lunch on the go, as the soaring cost of ingredients has been passed on to consumers.

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