Labour wants to reverse decline – but with a big budget comes a big risk

The government knows cynical voters will need to see tangible change in public services and to feel better off

At the final political cabinet before Rachel Reeves delivered her first budget this week, ministers were presented with internal party research on what the public was expecting.

In the months since the general election, they had been fed a regular diet of gloomy warnings about the state of the economic inheritance and, more recently, high levels of pre-budget news coverage, so it was firmly on their horizon.

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Reeves to promise ‘wealth and opportunity for all’ in major tax-raising budget

Having announced minimum wage boost, chancellor to say she can spare working people from tax rises

The UK’s national minimum wage is to rise by a higher than expected 6.7% next year, Rachel Reeves has announced before a multi-billion pound tax-raising budget designed to act as the springboard for a decade of national renewal.

Insisting that the increase to £12.21 in the pay floor marks a significant step in Labour’s plan to support the low paid, the chancellor will also say she can spare working people from the tax increases intended to plug the hole in the public finances and avoid a fresh wave of found of public spending cuts.

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OBR to publish breakdown of claimed £22bn ‘black hole’ on budget day

Former chancellor Jeremy Hunt says decision to publish findings of review on Wednesday is ‘significant concern’

Britain’s fiscal watchdog is to publish a detailed breakdown of the £22bn “black hole” that Labour says it inherited after Rachel Reeves presents the budget on Wednesday.

The Office for Budget Responsibility will release the conclusion of its review of how the forecast for departmental spending for its last economic and fiscal outlook, published for the March budget, was prepared.

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UK to increase military presence in Indo-Pacific to counter China

Keir Starmer to announce expansion in region that will also include business club to increase economic ties

The UK will increase its military and economic presence in the Indo-Pacific to support regional stability, Keir Starmer will announce on Saturday.

In an effort to counter China’s influence, ministers will expand the Royal Navy’s presence in the region and carry out more joint patrols with Pacific island nations.

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State-backed loans to go to firms importing critical minerals into UK

Rachel Reeves to encourage import of raw materials from Commonwealth countries to counter China’s grip on market

Businesses that import critical minerals to the UK will be given access to state-backed loans in a move to counter China’s dominance in the market.

The chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is expected to announce extra government support to encourage the import of critical minerals such as lithium, graphite and cobalt in her budget next week. Companies that bring supplies of critical minerals into the UK will be able to access state-backed loans under the UK export finance mechanism.

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Jeremy Hunt claims Labour changing debt definition will ‘punish families with mortgages’ – as it happened

Former chancellor says ‘increasing borrowing means interest rates would be higher for longer’ as Reeves says it will ‘make space for investment’

Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, has said that “no one knows” who Robert Jenrick, the Tory leadership contender, is.

Of the two candidates left in the contest, Jenrick is the one who is doing most to appeal to Tories who defected to Reform UK, because he is saying Britain should leave the European convention on human rights.

I know the fella. Is he the chap that one day was on the very much on the left of the Conservative party and is now on the right of the Conservative Party?... No one knows who he is.

I’m sure government can agree that support and providing opportunities for young people should be central to the policy of any government. We are glad to see the government working to build closer economic and cultural ties with Europe. We want to forge a new partnership with our European neighbours, built on cooperation, not confrontation and move to a new comprehensive agreement.

We must build rebuild confidence through seeking to agree partnerships or associations helping to restore prosperity and opportunities for British people.

We are not going to give a running commentary on the negotiations. We will obviously look at EU proposals on a range of issues, but we are clear that we will not return to freedom of movement.

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IMF warns Trump trade tariffs could dent global economy as it upgrades UK outlook

New report upgrades outlook for UK economy with growth now forecast at 1.1% rather than 0.7%

The International Monetary Fund has warned the trade tariffs favoured by US presidential candidate Donald Trump could hurt global growth, as it upgraded its forecast for the UK economy.

The Washington-based organisation said tariffs trigger tit-for-tat trade wars that impoverish the economies involved in the dispute and the wider global economy.

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Cross-party MPs urge Reeves to impose 2% tax on wealth above £10m

Move could raise £24bn a year say signatories including Jeremy Corbyn as polls suggest public support

A cross-party group of 30 MPs has urged Rachel Reeves to impose a wealth tax on Britain’s rich in next week’s budget rather than announce spending cuts that would hit the most poor hardest.

In a letter to the chancellor, the MPs – including the former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and his then shadow chancellor, John McDonnell – say she could raise £24bn a year from a 2% tax on wealth above £10m and lay the foundations for a fairer, more sustainable economy.

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Employment rights bill will cost firms £5bn per year but benefits will justify costs, government says – as it happened

Analysis from business and trade department says bill will significantly strengthen workers’ right. This live blog is closed

In the past the weirdest budget tradition was the convention that the chancellor is allowed to drink alcohol while delivering the budget speech. But since no chancellor has taken advantage of the rule since the 1990s (and no one expects Rachel Reeves to be quaffing on Wednesday week), this tradition is probably best viewed as lapsed.

But Sam Coates from Sky News has discovered another weird budget ritual. On his Politics at Jack and Sam’s podcast, he says:

Someone messaged me to say: ‘Did you know that over in the Treasury as they’ve been going over all these spending settlements, in one of the offices, its full of balloons. And every time an individual department finalises its settlements, one of the balloons is popped.’

There couldn’t be a more important time for us to have this conversation.

The NHS is going through what is objectively the worst crisis in its history, whether it’s people struggling to get access to their GP, dialling 999 and an ambulance not arriving in time, turning up to A&E departments and waiting far too long, sometimes on trolleys in corridors, or going through the ordeal of knowing that you’re waiting for a diagnosis that could be the difference between life and death.

We feel really strongly that the best ideas aren’t going to come from politicians in Whitehall.

They’re going to come from staff working right across the country and, crucially, patients, because our experiences as patients are also really important to understanding what the future of the NHS needs to be and what it could be with the right ideas.

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UK interest rates to fall to 2.75% by next autumn, Goldman Sachs predicts

Economists at investment bank say markets are underestimating likely extent of action by Bank of England

Interest rates are on course to fall to 2.75% by next autumn after the Bank of England reduces the cost of borrowing at each of its nine next meetings, a leading investment bank has predicted.

Economists at Goldman Sachs said that, according to their assessment of the long-term level of interest rates consistent with achieving the government’s 2% inflation target, markets were underestimating the likely extent of the action by Threadneedle Street’s nine-strong monetary policy committee (MPC).

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Quarter of UK summit investment came before Labour win, analysis suggests

Ministers heralded ‘record-breaking’ £63bn total at London event but £16.5bn appears to have preceded July election

About a quarter of the investment announced by the government at its summit this week appears to have been secured or initiated before Labour came to power.

Ministers touted £63bn of investment at the summit on Monday, where they hosted hundreds of company bosses in a showcase of the UK’s pro-growth policies.

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Rachel Reeves expected to extend ‘stealth’ freeze on income tax thresholds

Policy known as ‘fiscal drag’ could bring in as much as £7bn a year after 2028, while dragging workers into paying more tax

Rachel Reeves is expected to extend a “stealth” freeze on income tax thresholds beyond the 2028 deadline set by the previous Conservative government to raise billions of pounds in the budget.

The chancellor is contemplating the move, first reported by the Financial Times, as she seeks tax-raising measures to plug a £40bn shortfall in the public finances that Labour claims was left by the Conservatives.

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Cabinet ministers contest chancellor’s planned cuts to their departments

Rachel Reeves aims to find £40bn in budget but several ministers have written to Keir Starmer about spending cuts

Cabinet ministers have pushed back against planned cuts to their departments in the upcoming budget, with several writing to Keir Starmer to contest them.

Several are understood to have shared their concerns at the likelihood of deep cuts to unprotected departments such as housing and transport.

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PMQs live: Keir Starmer faces Rishi Sunak in the Commons

Latest PMQs comes as sources say chancellor is briefing ministers that £40bn will need to be found in the budget

Robert Jenrick has finished his speech, and he is now taking questions.

Q: Kemi Badenoch says she is Labour’s worst nightmare. Is she right?

I think that our party faces an existential challenge right now. Our party has no divine right to exist. That’s why we need to get the choice right in this leadership election, and that’s why I stand for ending the drama, ending the excuses, and actually delivering for the British people.

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Rachel Reeves tells cabinet UK still faces £100bn black hole over next five years

Chancellor’s words will be interpreted as signal she will not give in to ministers over cuts she imposes in budget

Rachel Reeves has told the cabinet that the UK still faces a £100bn black hole in the public finances over the next five years amid concerns that ministers are yet to grasp the full scale of the fiscal deficit ahead.

At a meeting of the political cabinet, the chancellor said the £22bn gap this year – which the government has blamed on their poor economic inheritance from the Tories – would be a recurring cost each year of this parliament.

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Elon Musk was not barred from UK investment summit, says cabinet minister

SpaceX owner would be invited in future if he had investment streams the UK could bid for, says Peter Kyle

Elon Musk would be welcome at future UK investment summits if and when he had investment programmes the UK could bid for, a cabinet minister has said before a major business event in London.

The remarks came as a group of private ­equity firms, insurers and tech firms joined five major banks in writing a joint letter saying it was “time to invest in Britain”, in a boost for Keir Starmer, who was opening the event on Monday.

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Starmer steps into cabinet row over P&O to rescue global summit in London

The PM has backed transport secretary Louise Haigh after she called ferry firm a ‘rogue operator’, threatening investment summit

Keir Starmer expressed his full confidence on Saturday in the transport secretary, Louise Haigh, after an explosive cabinet row cast fresh doubt over his Downing Street operation and threatened to overshadow a key international investment summit in London.

Government sources said the prime minister and Haigh had spoken and made up on Saturday after Starmer appeared to rebuke her on Friday for branding P&O Ferries a “rogue operator” in a statement and then calling for customers to boycott the company in a subsequent media interview.

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Pressure mounts on Rachel Reeves to drop ‘dangerous’ £1.3bn cut to benefits for disabled

Thousands could lose up to £4,900 a year if the plan is retained in the forthcoming budget

Rachel Reeves is coming under intense pressure to use the budget to abandon a £1.3bn cut to benefits for people with disabilities, first announced by the Tory government, amid warnings it will lead to hundreds of thousands of the most vulnerable people losing almost £5,000 a year.

The leading independent thinktank, the Resolution Foundation, has called on the chancellor to drop or delay changes to the work capability assessment (WCA), arguing that key aspects of the policy have not been thought through, and that around 420,000 people who are unable to work through disability or ill-health could lose up to £4,900 a year.

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Labour considers up to £3bn tax raid on gambling firms

Treasury weighing proposals as chancellor attempts to plug £22bn hole in public finances

Ministers are considering a tax raid of up to £3bn on the gambling sector as Rachel Reeves casts around for funds to shore up the public finances.

Treasury officials are understood to be weighing up proposals, put forward by two influential thinktanks and backed by one of the party’s top five individual donors, to double some of the taxes levied on online casinos and bookmakers.

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Talks on UK rejoining EU could start in 10 years’ time, says Peter Mandelson

Labour peer says in meantime it is essential to try to reduce damage of Brexit deal struck by Boris Johnson

Peter Mandelson has suggested the UK could start talks on rejoining the EU in 10 years’ time, much earlier than Keir Starmer believes.

Lord Mandelson told an audience in Edinburgh the “truth is that [reversing Brexit] could be a conversation which starts in 10 years’ time”, but only if EU member states were willing to consider it.

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